$DRAM dark pools are absorbing at 49-50, buying short-term insurance hedges while remaining bullish in the long term. Directional Delta/Vega capital flows in the early session are clearly negative, then stop worsening but still stay in the negative zone. The memory sector is currently focused on risk reduction, profit-taking, and buying protection. $MU also shows similar negative flows, with the entire memory sector under pressure. The NOPE indicator shows a significant divergence. It quickly turned negative at the open, then steadily recovered, stayed positive, and even rose above 6 near the close. Meanwhile, DRAM prices only recovered from 48.8 to about 50.5. The internal pressure in the options market is repairing faster than the spot price. 49–50.25 is now the most important institutional price acceptance zone. At the same time, the Gamma structure has made 50–51 a very clear short-term key price range. The implied volatility of far out-of-the-money Puts is significantly higher than the corresponding Calls. Capital is willing to go long again but is also buying insurance against "another round of memory sector sell-off." The open interest structure is consistent. Capital is repackaging short-term directional risk into long-cycle upside elasticity and tail risk protection. In other words, buying short-term insurance hedges while remaining bullish in the long term. #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？

$MU is slightly bearish in the short term, with clear distribution appearing in the dark pool. In the past few days, dark pool trades were heavily concentrated between 890–897, but the latest data has clearly shifted downward. The DP ratio at 871–875 is 72%–77%, corresponding to previous price distribution. Options net premium has clearly turned negative. MU opened directly above the Call Wall at 900 but quickly failed afterward. The 900 level has been confirmed by the market as a supply zone. In the morning session, accompanied by a sharp drop in stock price, indicators worsened, but then recovered, with prices rebounding and option pressure improving toward the close. However, the most notable increase in open interest is a large addition of Puts expiring on the 14th, rising from 5,897 to 31,742, which is a very significant number. Skew on August 21 Risk Reversal remains relatively flat near the middle Delta. But moving further out to the tails, Puts are becoming increasingly expensive relative to Calls, with the low Delta area rising to about +0.04. In plain terms, the market is still willing to trade a rebound before the 21st, but after that, capital has started buying insurance against a crash again. It is not recommended to build positions below 900. The 871–875 range is currently the most important dark pool battleground. If this area continues to be breached and short-term Put open interest keeps increasing, the situation will worsen further. This is not a fully bearish outlook, but the market is shifting from betting on a rise to repricing for a decline.

$AAOI The bullish cost-performance ratio here is no longer very high. The options structure after the earnings report shifted from chasing the rally to distributing at the top. The close at 135.63 indicates that the market ultimately did not accept 145–150, but also did not fall back to around 124 before the earnings report. This is healthy, but not strong enough to define as an acceleration of the trend. Net Premium went from -$2.82M before earnings to +$5.04M. However, there is a clear divergence, as directional Delta is declining. After the open, Delta once surged to over 250K, but as the stock price fell from 149, it closed at only about 120K–140K, meaning the first round of chasing the rally basically ended. Funds are shifting from directly chasing the rally to term and convexity positioning. They are realizing some of the upside exposure, rolling short-term Calls to longer maturities, using spread combinations to reduce costs, or directly selling Calls at high levels. This aligns closely with the actual stock price movement, 149 → 135. Large orders also support this judgment. The main dark pool contention area is 135–141. Holding 135 indicates that the post-earnings repricing remains valid. Only truly holding above 150 would mean the market begins to accept a second round of valuation expansion.

The market begins to trade down, with semiconductors under pressure.

$AAOI option patterns currently represent a typical earnings trade with bets on both sides. There is a large amount of short-term call speculation, call rolling, upward demand, and extreme downside protection all present simultaneously. Earnings expected volatility is 14.66%, calculated at 128.56, implying a range of approximately 109.90—147.22. Holding AAOI through earnings today should be able to withstand at least about a 15% overnight gap. There is positive delta demand on the options side, but the spot price is not holding, with selling pressure on the stock itself stronger than the hedging buy-side from option flows. In summary, options are hedging and long volatility, without a very clear directional bias.

$AMD earnings report: Management expects CPU revenue to still grow by more than 70% in 2027, continuing growth on a higher base. AI GPUs can rapidly scale revenue, but new product ramp-up, HBM, and whole system costs will all impact gross margin. EPYC is relatively mature, with a more diversified customer base and more stable profitability. EPYC is AMD's CPU brand targeting servers and data centers, mainly competing against Intel's Xeon. The fundamentals of the CPU segment are solid; the issue still lies with long-term interest rates. $INTC $ARM

Three incense sticks above the head, if not dead, at least injured $PLTR is out first Next, either break through and retest, or honestly wait to buy in the range below 130 #财报观察员：业绩喜忧参半，解禁将至！SpaceX后续怎么看？ #SpaceX首份财报超预期，解禁仍是关键变量

$SKHY Short-term institutions are buying insurance, while long-term funds have not given up on bullishness. 1/ Near-term defense is very heavy. On August 7, Put OI was nearly 4.8 times that of Call, and about 3.4 times on August 21. Institutions are clearly guarding against high volatility and rebound failures in the coming weeks. 2/ But the long-term structure is actually more bullish. Call OI for September, December, and January 2027 is clearly dominant. Especially in January 2027, Calls increased by about 10,699 contracts, while Puts only increased by about 248 contracts. This does not look like an outright bearish stance, but rather holding long-term longs while buying Puts to protect against short-term risks. 3/ In bulk, institutions bought October $135 Puts while selling $180 Calls. This protects against risk below $135 while still willing to hold near $180. 4/ The biggest short-term issue is negative Gamma. $141 is the Put Wall, $145 is the Dealer acceleration point, and $160 is the Call Wall. Breaking below $141 may accelerate a move toward $135. Holding steady between $145–$150 is needed for a chance to repair toward $160. The long-term logic remains, but short-term insurance is heavy. Before $150, it is still a rebound test; $160 is the next real resistance.

Currently, the US stock market is basically in an Amplifying + negative Gamma volatility amplification state, coupled with long-duration interest rates at high levels, so sharp rises and falls won't be too surprising. Next Wednesday is the US Treasury auction, which could be even more explosive.