$XRP current price is pinned around $1.03, with the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages all pressing downward. The daily RSI is about 40, and the MACD is negative, indicating a state of low-intensity continuous selling pressure. XRP has clearly underperformed the broader market recently. Ajian believes this is related to its positioning in stablecoins and cross-border payment narratives being dragged down by the uncertainty of the CLARITY Act. $1.01 may be the key support level for this round of decline. Breaking below this number will likely open up new downside space, while $1.06-$1.08 is the recovery signal line. Friends who follow this coin should pay attention to these two numbers as they are more practical than any target price predictions. Don't fight the trend with emotional averaging down; wait for the price to give a reversal signal before taking action

Today is the deadline for the U.S. Senate's summer recess. Although Ajian no longer holds much expectation for procedural progress on CLARITY before the recess, regardless, after today, the market's expectations for the bill will undergo a concentrated adjustment. Even if there is no substantive vote today, as long as the Senate gives a clear statement like "priority handling in September," the market will most likely interpret it as positive, because the uncertainty itself has been narrowing. So it’s not surprising if there is no progress today; it would only be surprising if there were procedural advances beyond expectations. I suggest every trader check the congressional schedule and mainstream crypto media more frequently later today, as this is one of the few moments this month worth closely watching for market news. Especially the stablecoin interest payment clause, which is the provision in the entire bill that most directly affects the actual interests of ordinary users. If this clause is compromised or weakened, it will be a substantial negative for the long-term user appeal of the stablecoin industry. It deserves separate tracking and should not be overshadowed by the big news of whether the bill passes overall or not. Finally, tracking CLARITY over the past few months has also made me realize one thing: legislative news cannot be judged solely by the final outcomes of passage or failure. Every procedural milestone in between (committee votes, scheduling, pre-recess deadlines) is itself an independent information point that can be used for judgment.

Looking back at the signals over the weekend, it's clear the market isn't out of money; it's just that the money is choosing its paths: $BTC ETF inflows reached 865.3M in the last 5 trading days; $ETH ETF also saw inflows of $243.7M; $LINK whales moved 387,830 LINK from Binance into Gnosis Safe; $SOL whales are trying to go long 500K SOL with 20x leverage; Tether earns about $14.6M per day, Sky $11.8M, Tron $8.0M, Circle $6.2M You see, liquidity exists, but on the other side, the reality is also clear: Suspected miners sent 6,494 BTC to Binance; YZY is about to unlock $35.73M; BIP-110 minority chains lack replay protection; Oraichain mainnet is abnormal, officials advise users not to transfer; Solana OG attacker sent 2,290 ETH into Tornado again; pump.fun was exposed for high subsidies to users for migration Is this a bull market? Kind of, but not clean enough; Is it a bear market? Not really, because money is indeed flowing in. So I say money hasn't disappeared; it's just choosing paths: From ETFs into BTC and ETH; From exchanges to multisig wallets; From miners into Binance; From attackers into Tornado; From platform subsidies into user migration; From stablecoin protocols into real income; From small coin unlocks into potential selling pressure The most common mistake ordinary people make is only watching the price—if it rises, they think there's no risk; if it falls, they think there's no opportunity. But what really determines whether you survive is the path: Which path is your money on? Is it the ETF mainline? Is it stablecoin income? Is it a protocol with real cash flow? Or a small coin unlocking next week with thin liquidity? Will your wallet sign messily during a fork? Can your position withstand a miner sell-off? It's the weekend; I suggest summarizing your capital paths, including reasons for buying, exit paths, unlock dates, on-chain risks, maximum loss, etc. Don't ask why—just focus on surviving first.

Here is a summary of the upcoming unlocks next week: $YZY 120M tokens worth about $35.73M, $STRK 130M tokens worth about $3.19M, $ARB 123.53M tokens worth about $9.65M, $VANA 2.57M tokens worth about $2.22M, $Goplus 109.25M tokens worth about $1.08M Why does Ajian insist on compiling unlock summaries? Unlocks don't automatically cause a dump, but they do change market psychology. Especially for small coins with low daily trading volume, even if the unlock amount doesn't look large, it can still pressure the price. For these types of coins, always check the unlock schedule before trading, then consider the narrative. Also, when looking at unlocks, don't just consider the absolute amount; you must also look at the unlock-to-circulation ratio and the unlock-to-daily trading volume ratio. If a coin's daily trading volume is only a few million, an unlock of tens of millions is a huge burden; if a coin has sufficient depth, the unlock might only be a psychological pressure. That's all.

The most surreal thing today: pump.fun is offering a $20K signing bonus and a $30K monthly fixed compensation to attract FOMO users, requiring them to migrate, create a new wallet, bind X, and complete $25K in trading volume. Meme platforms used to compete on traffic, issuance, and hype; now they are finally competing with cash subsidies like the web2 food delivery wars. Personally, I think platform subsidies to users don't necessarily mean the platform is strong; it could also indicate that the cost of organic traffic is becoming more expensive. Meme platforms are entering the CAC era, which is customer acquisition cost. Whoever is more willing to buy users, retain users, and bind social relationships will win this subsidy and retention war. In short, if the rumors are true, ordinary users still benefit for now. Just remember that in the future, when looking at meme platforms, you can't only look at the revenue rankings; you also have to see whether users came voluntarily or were bought with subsidies. After all, users acquired through subsidies might leave faster than anyone once subsidies stop. Also, when looking at platform revenue, you need to deduct customer acquisition costs; high revenue does not equal high net profit, and high trading volume does not equal strong organic demand.

Today, let's continue discussing BIP-110: Around Bitcoin block 961,632, a minority-support chain appeared due to BIP-110, while the mainnet continues to lead. Ajian once again emphasized that this fork lacks replay protection; actions you take on one chain are very likely to be replicated on the other chain. If you insist on claiming or operating the forked coins, it may put the main chain BTC at risk of loss. Self-custody users are most tempted during the fork period, but minority chain support does not mean you can operate recklessly. Risks often occur at this time. Do not randomly claim forked coins during this period, and do not blindly sign transactions following tutorials. The security of your main assets is far more important than gaining an extra worthless coin. If you must operate, at least wait for wallets, exchanges, and node teams to provide clear procedures before considering whether it is worth risking your main chain assets for a small fork.

Just now: An Ethereum ICO participant, after 11 years of dormancy, deposited 0.1 $ETH to Coinbase. This address originally invested $620 to acquire 2,000 ETH, which is currently worth about $3.83M, a return of approximately 6,184 times. Eleven years is a long time—long enough to endure countless crashes, doubts, ridicule, technical route disputes, and regulatory risks. This person may not be particularly smart, but was definitely early enough, determined enough, forgot their password enough, and served their sentence enough 🤡 Back to the point, Ajian still advises all friends not to fantasize about every small coin as if it were ETH's early days chasing the next 6000x. True big cycle gains usually come from a very small number of long-term assets, requiring network effects, developers, real usage, and the right timing and conditions. They are rare and cannot be forced, so remember this.

An address deposited $8.43M USDC in HL, planning to go long 500K $SOL with 20x leverage, targeting a nominal position of about $37.93M; approximately 209K SOL has been executed, making it one of the largest positions in this market. This type of leveraged buying has fueled SOL's strength today, with the current SOL snapshot around $76.01, up 1.83% in 24h, clearly outperforming $BTC and $ETH Of course, 20x leverage is very powerful when the direction is right, but it can liquidate quickly if wrong. A whale going long doesn't mean you should follow. They might have hedges, OTC, spot, or capital advantages that you don't Today, I will first watch if $75-$76 can hold, then see if ETF and on-chain data follow, If there's a pullback, will liquidations reverse and crash the market Whale moves are information, not instructions

Is Trump's executive order to impose a 15% tariff on polysilicon unimportant? Polysilicon is a key material upstream in the chip and photovoltaic industry chains, and this tariff will transmit through the entire AI hardware supply chain's cost structure. Don't think this has nothing to do with the crypto market; the AI narrative and the Crypto narrative are essentially competing for the same pool of risk capital. Any policy that affects the cost of the AI hardware supply chain, thereby impacting AI stock valuations, will indirectly influence the allocation rhythm of funds between the two sectors. Tariffs, as a traditional trade policy tool, are increasingly becoming an indirect variable affecting the funding side of the crypto market, which is an angle rarely analyzed in the Chinese crypto community over the past few years. If you hold both AI-related stocks and crypto assets, recognize the necessity and start habitually including Sino-US tech policy news in your information scanning scope. These are no longer two unrelated fields

The proposal regarding changes to the BIP 110 protocol in the Bitcoin community has recently sparked some heated discussions about hard forks. The early stages of such events usually have a low signal-to-noise ratio, but the term "hard fork rumors" is often overinterpreted as bearish in the Chinese community. In fact, historically, most similar proposals have not led to an actual split; the discussion process itself reflects the health of Bitcoin governance. Ajian believes the real significance of this matter is to remind traders that prices will fluctuate, but operational mistakes are permanent. You might think you are transferring on one chain, but the transaction could be replicated on another chain as well. For self-custody users, exchanges, and market makers, this should be the most concerning event. If the fork risk window really opens in the future, don't rush to operate on-chain; first see how exchanges, wallets, and node teams handle it. The market will reopen, but if assets are lost, they are truly gone