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峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
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2470美元的ETH,你被架在火上烤了吗? 先看表面:月线大阳涨30%,但一周没动了。 ETH从夏季低点1600-1900暴力拉起,8月走出教科书级反弹。但9月以来,价格在2460-2550这个窄框里来回摩擦,上去就被打回来,下来就被接住。24小时几乎走平,成交量在收敛。突破在即,但方向没定。 第一件事:机构还在买,但节奏明显慢了。 前一周ETH ETF净流入8.24亿美元,最近一周掉到2.18亿美元。同期BTC ETF吸了近10亿,资金明显更偏爱大饼。 48小时内超11.6万枚ETH离开交易所,可售供应在收。 中档散户一周砸了30.7万枚,鲸鱼只吸了8.2万枚。结构很清楚:大户在接,中间盘在出货。 第二件事:质押锁了4000万枚,但有一个隐患。 质押ETH约占总流通的32-35%,验证者超90万,入队还有积压——有人愿意锁。质押APR只有2.6%左右,已经低于美债收益率。 买ETH的人图的是价格敞口和结算权,不是利息。一旦宏观转向紧缩,质押解锁需求可能激增。 L2把费用打薄后,ETH销毁强度不如当年"超声货币"那么猛了,目前更接近微通胀。 但意味着"供应紧缩"的叙事比2021年弱了一档。 第三件事:9月是ETH的传统弱月,叠加两颗地雷。 9月历来是ETH表现偏弱的月份之一。再加上: 9月11日CPI:数据再热,先砸一脚 9月16日FOMC+点阵图:加息概率被推到60%,点阵图鹰派直接送ETH回2400以下 ETH是Beta资产,流动性一收,跌得比谁都快。8月的反弹很爽,但别把它当成新牛市的确认。 多空对决,你自己看 一边是: 8月从1600涨到2500,趋势已转多 质押锁了4000万枚,可售供应在收 ETF底仓仍在,BlackRock是主力 11.6万枚ETH离开交易所,鲸鱼在吸筹 一边是: ETF流入从8亿骤降到2亿,增量资金在减速 散户/中户一周砸了30.7万枚,出货意愿强 9月加息概率60%,宏观在转向鹰派 2500四次没过去,多杀多风险在积累 上方阻力:2500 → 2520-2560(多次拒绝位)→ 2750-2800 下方支撑:2460-2475(今日低点+密集成交)→ 2400 → 2360-2380 操作策略 短线选手: 回踩2460-2475站住再轻多,止损2448,目标2510-2540。放量日线收盘站上2560再追突破,目标2700-2800。跌破2460反抽不过,试空看2400,止损2490。 波段选手: 等CPI或FOMC砸出低点再进场。更舒服的中线买点在2360-2420(如果砸出来的话)。若FOMC转鸽且ETH站稳2560,再把仓位加上去。 长线信仰者: 2400以下分批定投。ETH的基本面没变——结算层+质押资产+ETF标的,三件套还在。 ETH现在是"涨完了但没突破"的尴尬期—— 99%的人看着8月的大阳线激动不已,却没发现2500已经撞了四次墙。 2560突破的那一天,踏空的人会追;2460跌破的那一天,持仓的人会跑。 你选哪一边? 2470这个位置,你加仓还是减仓?$BTC $ETH $ZEC
峰哥的交易日记
峰哥的交易日记
$7 UNI, do you dare to chase it? First, look at the surface: the protocol has started making money, and it's big money. A one-time burn of 100 million UNI, followed by continuous buyback and burn, with a total of 111 million UNI already burned. The rollout of v4 plus Robinhood Chain has become a burn accelerator, with single-day burns hitting new stage highs. Fee Switch expanded from some pools to the entire chain, turning protocol revenue into buying power. In August, volume surged from the low, weekly chart broke out of the long-term downtrend channel, standing above key moving averages, the major structure has turned bullish. First thing: Fee Switch is on, UNI is no longer the old UNI. After UNIfication passes by the end of 2025, the protocol will use fees from v2/v3 to buy and burn UNI; in July 2026, it will expand to v4 and more chains. The treasury has already burned over 100 million UNI in one go, followed by continuous buyback and burn. UNI used to be just a "voting token," protocol profits had nothing to do with you. Now, for every $1 fee the protocol collects, a portion is used to buy and burn UNI. The bigger the volume, the faster the burn, the price rises, creating a positive flywheel. Second thing: Robinhood Chain has become a burn accelerator. On-chain DEX volume once exceeded Solana's single-day level, with Uniswap capturing a large share of the volume. v4 Hooks enable RWA/tokenized stocks, partnered with Morpho for Earn, and Launchpad entered Robinhood Chain. Tokenized stock pools on UNI v4 are already among the top. Traditional finance is being brought on-chain through Uniswap. Robinhood Chain subsidy window is still open, short-term volume won't drop. Annualized burn scale is being revalued by the market. UNI is transforming from "DEX leader" to "DeFi + RWA super aggregator layer." Third thing: The rise is too fast, smart money is buying at $7, retail is chasing at $7. Arthur Hayes has recently bought about $2 million worth of UNI OTC, averaging around $7. He's famous for "buying when no one cares, selling when everyone is shouting." Is everyone shouting now? Weekly up 48%, monthly up 70%, doubled from 3.2 to 7, RSI once overbought, long upper shadow with stagnant K-line at 7.0-7.5 — a typical "post-acceleration turnover zone." Bull vs bear, judge for yourself. On one side: Fee Switch is on, 111 million UNI burned, supply continuously shrinking Robinhood Chain accelerates burn, single-day burn hits new highs Arthur Hayes + smart money buying at $7 Weekly chart breaks long-term downtrend, major structure turns bullish On the other side: Weekly up 48%, RSI once overbought, short-term overheated Macroeconomic headwinds (rising rate expectations, CPI + FOMC approaching) 7.0-7.5 dense lock-up zone, breakout needs volume Robinhood subsidy window expected to expire, volume may drop Resistance above: 7.15-7.25 → 7.45-7.50 (recent highs) → 8.00 (psychological level) Support below: 6.75-6.85 (pullback confirmation) → 6.45-6.50 → 6.20 (strong support) Trading strategy Short-term players: 7.0-7.1 is not a place to open longs, but to reduce positions. Buy again on a pullback to 6.75-6.85 with volume contraction and stabilization, stop loss at 6.58, target 7.2-7.3, second target 7.45-7.5. Swing traders: Wait to accumulate in batches at 6.2-6.5, $7 is "can hold, but shouldn't add too much." CPI (Sept 11) + FOMC (Sept 16) approaching, rate hike probability 58-60%, reduce positions or lock profits before the decision. Watch burn data + Robinhood Chain daily volume — if volume and burn drop, narrative weakens immediately. If the positive fee rate is high, bulls holding overnight is not cost-effective. UNI is now a "narrative coin supported by fundamentals" — 99% of people are still asking "why is UNI rising," but the protocol has already bought back and burned $100 million worth of tokens. On the day it breaks 8.0, you'll realize: It's not that UNI is weak, it's that you always ask if you can chase after it has doubled. At $7.0, do you dare to get on board? $ETH $UNI $ARB

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