$ZEC Stop playing around, the old money is crazily taking profits, and the new money is crazily buying in. With such a high turnover rate, entering now is very likely to get caught at the peak: 1. Suspected Bitkub co-founder related wallets are gradually liquidating nearly 140,000 ZEC, and many retail investors who rushed in this week are basically stuck. Now the top 100 addresses hold nearly half of the chips, and the real floating supply on the secondary market is just a few million coins. 2. The ecosystem money has arrived: Zcash-related self-custody wallets developers raised $25 million in seed funding, the application layer got top-tier VC money, and the narrative has shifted from mining to developers. 3. Ledger hardware wallets are integrating transaction shielding, with a release and independent audit planned by the end of the month—opening institutional-grade self-custody access, the last mile for compliant coin holding. RSI is still hot; it is recommended to keep your position under 10%, don’t get too greedy. Don’t try to make the last wave of profits, it’s easy to be left stranded at the peak.

The whale who sold $ETH at a loss sneakily bought back again; this kind of move is more honest than any research report. 1. On-chain monitoring detected: a whale who previously liquidated over ten thousand ETH around 2252, yesterday spent nearly twenty million dollars to buy back 7,567 ETH. 2. On the day of breaking through 2700, short positions were liquidated for 170 million dollars; Hyperliquid $HYPE holds $3 billion in ETH positions but the fee rate is only slightly positive, indicating the rise is driven by spot, not overheated. 3. The Sepolia testnet fork targets the window from the end of the month to early October, with ordinary transfer gas fees dropping by up to 70%. This is the next narrative baton after Fusaka. 4. The story of Aave submitting an institutional version proposal continues: qualified custody of $BTC /ETH collateral to borrow stablecoins, DAO funding fifty million dollars to build the pool. The RWA institutional pipeline has thickened again. My thought: first watch 2950. The dealer buying back is stronger than anything else, hold on.

The trend of $BTC is making me a bit nervous; I don't quite understand it! Yesterday saw the largest options expiry in history just settle, yet the market showed no volatility at all. Deribit's quarterly expiry yesterday had a notional value of $18.1 billion, a record high, wiping out nearly 40% of the entire BTC open interest at once. The settlement price was well above the pain point, so the long structure remains intact. But the positive gamma buffer is gone, so next week's order flow will be exposed. The good news is the chip position is solid: exchange BTC reserves have dropped to 2.7 million coins, the lowest since 2019; whale wallets have accumulated over 110,000 BTC in just over two months. The mid-term structure is bullish. The bad news is retail investors are also buying. Historically, before a bull market starts, "whales buy, retail sells." Now retail FOMO hasn't been cleared out, indicating sentiment reset is incomplete, so the breakout won't happen overnight. As long as it doesn't break below 83,000, I still believe there will be one more wave up before a pullback

Now everyone must have given up on $ONE, right? Moving to the Ethereum chain is just euthanasia after the complete failure of the L1 economy. 1. In August, a cross-shard vulnerability was exploited to forge about 3 trillion ONE (which is 200 times the circulating supply). The team had to roll back more than 140,000 blocks, completely destroying the chain's trust foundation. This is another breach of user trust following the 2022 Horizon cross-chain bridge hack by North Korean hackers who stole nearly $100 million. 2. TVL crashed from a peak of $1 billion to $150,000, basically zero; on-chain daily fee revenue is negligible. This time, shutting down the old chain and fully migrating to Ethereum is just a more comfortable way to give up. The fundamentals are dead, and the team will no longer care. On-chain economic activity is dead, market cap has shrunk to the tens of millions of dollars level, validators shut down nodes and took $1.37 million severance pools to become governors. Everyone can disperse, don’t hold any hope.

The Solana Foundation just announced yesterday that it hired Binance's former global CMO as Chief Strategy Officer, and today it surged! $SOL is one of the strongest fundamental themes in this cycle in my opinion, so it has always been one of my main positions for bottom-fishing. The real drivers are the Alpenglow structural upgrade + continuous inflow of institutional funds into ETFs. The spot SOL ETF has seen net inflows for 12 consecutive weeks, with cumulative AUM surpassing $1.4 billion, indicating ongoing institutional accumulation. Moreover, after Solana partnered with Allfunds, which manages €1.9 trillion, to promote tokenized funds in the past two months, tokenized stocks and ETFs of $ONDO are now tradable on Solana — it is the underlying chain for this new track.

Elon Musk's X has officially announced embedding exchanges directly into the timeline, reviving the $DOGE payment narrative. 1. The X platform announced cooperation with exchanges like Gemini, Kraken, and Coinbase, allowing users to trade crypto assets directly within the timeline. The closer to X Pay, the more special DOGE's position becomes — it has always been the tipping coin Musk champions. 2. Futures open interest reached $1.57 billion, the highest since late August, with a long-short ratio of 2.3 — leveraged funds are re-entering, amplifying short-term volatility, so hold steady. 3. Data shows that on the big drop day, spot ETFs still saw net inflows in the millions of dollars, indicating institutions aren't too afraid of drawdowns. Of course, X trading is a slow-moving variable and a positive that took several twists, so don't expect a full rally in a week. Just hold your spot assets steady.

$HYPE dropped instead of rising after listing on the neighboring spot market yesterday. Let me explain: 1. It’s not that it didn’t rise; it actually rose in advance: the news of the spot listing was announced early, and the money that needed to come in was already in at the time of the announcement. The drop after the spot listing is a classic case of good news being priced in, so no need to panic. 2. Hyperliquid’s open interest accounts for more than half of the entire perp DEX market, with a 30-day perp volume of 220 billion and an annualized revenue of $700 million — fundamentally, it’s still the strongest player in the field, bar none. 3. Moreover, the moat is really high: HIP-3’s ten deployment parties have 97.8% of the volume taken by the top one, while the non-top parties’ lifetime revenue combined is only around $700,000, showing highly concentrated dividends. The overall market uptrend is still ongoing, and my target is 102.

The positive news for $OKB landed today: the spot fee rates in the EEA region have been cut nearly in half from 0.20/0.35 to 0.10/0.20 starting today. This move ties retail investors and OKB even closer together. With trading costs lowered, retention and demand for holding coins will both be directed towards OKB. This is the most solid logic behind platform tokens. The NYSE parent company ICE's joint venture plans to launch tokenized US stocks in the second half of the year. The fee reduction in Europe perfectly aligns with the MiCA expansion pace, with compliance licenses coming one after another. I believe this recent pullback is a buildup rather than a peak. The market may not immediately react at the start of the new fee rates, so be patient.

$BTC has risen so much, yet Coinbase's premium index has been negative for 20 consecutive days, indicating that large-scale buyers in the US haven't entered the market yet? Not just the past 20 days, but most of this year has been negative. This means the rally above 80,000 is absent of US spot funds and is driven by offshore and derivatives. The good news is leverage is being cleared: open interest dropped 10% yesterday, and 90% of liquidations were longs — it's the leveraged traders being cleaned out, not spot holders running away, so this kind of decline is actually healthy. USDC issuance increased by 786 million in one day, with a net increase of 1.95 billion over the week; stablecoin liquidity is still flowing into the pool. The Fear & Greed Index is 71, in the greed zone, sentiment is still alive. Today is futures expiration day, so let's wait and see. The upward trend is still intact. For those without positions, it's recommended to build up to 30% exposure. I see this upward trend reaching 90,000.

Last night Micron $MU's earnings report sent the storage sector $FIL soaring, and today in the crypto world, large Deribit options are settling, brothers keep a close watch. #EarningsObserver: Costco's performance exceeded expectations, Micron takes over 1. Micron's earnings last night: revenue more than tripled year-over-year, next quarter guidance directly at the $50 billion level, CEO said shortages will last until after 2027. After-hours, the storage chain collectively took off, Western Digital and SanDisk rose up to 10%. Today FIL's spirit is over in the US stock market. 2. The macro issue remains a thorn: the 10-year US Treasury yield hit around 5.2%, the highest since 2007, four Fed officials all hawkish, October rate hike probability around 67%. The summit ended, the trade truce only extended for two months, stable but no reconciliation, risk assets at best neutral to slightly warm. 3. Deribit's $BTC quarterly options expire today, with a notional value over $15 billion, max pain at 75-76k, after expiration hedging flows disappear, afternoon volatility will increase. On expiration day, no heavy new positions are opened, that's discipline.