Orbit: Crypto Community Feed

FIL continues to weaken, making a strong rally difficult: six core reasons 1. Persistent selling pressure and supply-demand imbalance (the fundamental reason) FIL continuously produces mining rewards daily; early SAFT investors and the foundation's holdings unlock linearly over the long term. A large number of storage providers (miners) produce FIL daily and need to pay electricity and hardware costs, creating continuous selling pressure. Whenever the price slightly rebounds, miners tend to cash out collectively, making sustained rallies difficult—a typical "rebound triggers selling" scenario. 2. Narrative severely disconnected from actual implementation The promotion is about AI decentralized storage, but the actual paid storage proportion is extremely low. Most of the network's storage is test data or subsidized data; genuine enterprise paid orders are rare; On-chain revenue mostly comes from penalties, not storage service fees. Simply put: the network looks large in capacity but is unprofitable. Without real business demand support, capital won't position long-term. 3. Token economic model has a built-in vicious cycle Price drops → miners’ staked assets shrink → some computing power exits and shuts down → market confidence worsens → continued pressure. Unlike $BTC and $ETH, which have continuous burning and essential consumption, $FIL lacks sufficient token consumption scenarios. 4. Weak market consensus within the community, institutional funds avoid it In early years, domestic mining machine capital heavily entered FIL, creating a very thick historical trapped position; The market formed a fixed impression: FIL = mining token. Large funds prefer $ADA, $CFX, $LINK, and platform tokens, rarely actively allocating FIL. Given the same capital, they prioritize stronger trending assets with smaller trapped positions. 5. Intense competition in the sector, no irreplaceability The decentralized storage sector also has competitors like AR, SIA, etc.; Compared to centralized cloud storage, FIL has slower retrieval speeds and higher costs, making large-scale enterprise adoption difficult. The AI storage hype rarely translates sustainably to FIL, mostly just short-lived pulses. 6. Weak technical structure in the market The long-term focus keeps shifting downward, with resistance levels dropping layer by layer; Other mainstream tokens have support during pullbacks, but FIL often consolidates with small gains while the broader market dips, falling first during corrections. When capital chooses direction, it actively avoids weak assets. Many wonder: when will there be a turnaround? The market generally watches two key time points: Mid-October unlock period ends + mining reward halving Early investors’ six-year unlock expires, daily new circulating tokens drop sharply, theoretically reducing selling pressure. ⚠️ Key point: reduced supply does not necessarily mean price will rise. Without real growth in paid storage business, relying solely on halving narratives will likely only cause short-term pulse rebounds, making a sustained bull trend unlikely. Substantial changes must occur: large-scale growth in real paid storage orders and continuous token demand from the ecosystem. Practical objective conclusion (current market) Without major positive catalysts, FIL is unlikely to enter a sustained main upward wave. Current capital concentration mainlines: OKB, BNB, ADA, CFX, LINK; funds prioritize strong assets, while weak tokens tend to be continuously neglected. #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ #存储股抛压缓和，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？

Snapshot at 10 Aug 2026, 11:21