#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext
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US core PCE rose 3.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM in Aug, both below expectations, while consumer spending stayed resilient. CME FedWatch now puts the odds of a 25bp Oct hike at about 38%, vs 62% for no change. Goldman Sachs pushed its next-hike call to Dec, though Kashkari said inflation remains too high. With Sept ADP payrolls up 90,000, focus now turns to the Sept NFP report at 12:30 UTC on Oct 2. Can jobs data reshape the Fed outlook?
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🔎 <名词解释> 非农就业｜美国新增了多少工作？
“#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 ”
“新增就业放缓，劳动力市场降温”
“非农公布后，美联储利率预期变化”
——我们经常在各种快讯中看到的非农就业（NFP），通常指美国非农就业人数的月度变化，用来观察美国就业市场的变化。它覆盖制造业、建筑业、零售、医疗等大量非农业部门，但不包括农场就业等部分岗位。
📅 非农通常每月公布一次，一般在每月第一个星期五发布上月数据。具体日期可能因节假日等因素调整。
❓为什么市场关注非农？
就业是美联储判断经济状况和制定货币政策的重要参考之一。就业持续强劲，可能意味着经济仍具韧性；就业明显降温，则可能改变市场对未来利率路径的判断，并进一步影响美元、美债、美股、BTC等资产。
⚠️ 非农越差并不等于风险资产一定会涨。如果就业突然大幅恶化，市场也可能转而担忧经济衰退，风险偏好反而下降。
❓遇到非农资讯，重点看什么？
❶ 新增就业人数：新增较多通常意味着用工需求较强，持续放缓则可能意味着就业市场正在降温
❷ 实际值 vs 市场预期：有没有明显超出或低于预期？
❸ 前值修正：此前公布的就业数据有没有被上调或下调？
💡 非农不只是看新增了多少工作，还要结合市场预期和前值修正，判断就业市场是在保持韧性、逐步降温，还是出现明显恶化。
✍️互动提问：你觉得哪些名词每次看都一头雾水，或者有些数据只知道涨或跌，实际上是不太理解的，欢迎在评论区投稿📖
🎁被精选中的名词提问成长学院会单独回复，并安排随机交易礼包奖励
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext
Rate hikes getting delayed while the job market starts showing cracks could create a very different setup for risk assets.
If employment keeps weakening, pressure builds for monetary policy to turn more supportive.
That could become a major catalyst for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext #Bitcoin #CryptoTreasuryDivides
Why does NFP matter for crypto
Core PCE came in softer than expected, while consumer spending remains resilient. Now, all eyes turn to September NFP on Oct. 2.
Strong jobs → less pressure to cut/hike expectations rise → liquidity can tighten.
Weak jobs → more room for Fed easing → liquidity conditions could improve.
For $BTC, the reaction may come down to jobs + wages + unemployment, not the headline NFP number alone.
Mark the date. 👀📊
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext
🇺🇸 US Macro Data: Core PCE
Core PCE:
m/m = +0.2% (forecast +0.3% / previous +0.2%)
y/y = +3.0% (forecast +3.4% / previous +3.3%)
PCE:
m/m = +0.3% (forecast +0.3% / previous +0.2%)
y/y = +3.4% (forecast +3.8% / previous +3.7%)
Q2 GDP: +2.2% (forecast +1.5% / previous +2.1%)
📈 Inflation came in slightly below expectations, which is generally supportive for risk assets. The first reaction from crypto has been upward
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext The Fed just got room to wait. Now jobs get the deciding vote 👀
Core PCE came in softer than expected, cutting Oct hike odds to ~38%, while Goldman pushed its next-hike call to Dec. But inflation is still above target and ADP added 90K jobs.
What caught my attention is how quickly the debate has shifted. A strong NFP could revive hike bets, while weak hiring gives the Fed more patience.
PCE opened the door to a pause. Jobs may decide if the Fed walks through it.
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext The PCE numbers came in a little softer than expected, and suddenly the conversation around the next rate hike feels a bit less urgent 👀 But I don’t think the picture is clear just yet.
Now all eyes are on the jobs data. If the labor market stays strong, the Fed still has plenty to think about. If it starts cooling, expectations could shift again pretty quickly. 📊
Feels like one of those weeks where every new data point changes the story a little 😅📉✨
The Fed debate just got pushed to jobs day.
August core PCE, one of the Fed’s most closely watched inflation gauges, rose 3.0% YoY and 0.2% MoM, both softer than expected. Headline PCE also cooled to 3.4% YoY and 0.3% MoM.
That gave markets a reason to price out some October hike risk.
But the data was not clean enough to end the debate. Personal spending rose 0.9% MoM in August, while real PCE increased 0.6%, showing that US consumers are still spending even as inflation cools.
Key points:
· CME FedWatch puts the odds of a 25bp October hike near 38%, with no change around 62%
· Goldman Sachs pushed its next-hike call from October to December after the softer PCE print
· Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari continues to argue that inflation remains too high
· ADP reported 90,000 private-sector jobs added in September, while annual base pay growth held at 3.2%
The message is mixed. Inflation is cooling, but demand has not cracked. Hiring is moderating, but the labor market is not flashing a clear recession signal.
So markets are not just trading inflation anymore. They are trading the balance between cooler prices, sticky demand and how patient the Fed can afford to be.
For crypto and global risk assets, the next test is the September US jobs report, due October 2 at 12:30 UTC. Traders will be watching payrolls, unemployment, wage growth and revisions.
A soft jobs print could support the pause narrative and help risk appetite. A strong one could bring the “higher for longer” trade back fast, especially if wages stay firm.
For now, softer PCE delayed the hike debate. It did not kill it.
Are you positioning for a Fed pause, or still waiting for the jobs data before making a move?
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
In the past two days, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from 70% to about 50-50. It's not that inflation has truly come down, but Williams' comment of "no rush" + oil prices retreating + consumer confidence collapsing made the market discount the "continuous rate hikes" for now.
Core PCE year-on-year at 3.3% and month-on-month at 0.3% is the watershed.
If tonight the core month-on-month is ≥0.3% and consumption
The next rate hike can wait. Now the jobs data gets the spotlight.
After September’s Fed hike, the market has been debating whether another move needs to happen immediately. Personally, I think the labor market could now become the deciding factor.
If hiring stays healthy and unemployment remains stable, the Fed has more room to stay focused on inflation and keep policy tight. But if payroll growth starts weakening while unemployment rises, another hike becomes much harder to justify.
That’s why I’m watching more than just the headline payroll number. Wage growth, unemployment and previous-month revisions could tell us much more about whether the labor market is genuinely slowing.
For BTC, this creates an interesting setup too. Softer jobs could reduce rate pressure, but a labor market that weakens too quickly isn’t necessarily good news for risk assets either.
#RateHikeDelayedJobsNext $BTC
The market is quiet, but Friday’s jobs data could change everything. ⚡
PCE eased, giving crypto a small boost, but elevated yields keep pressure on risk assets.
$BTC is around $84.2K, with $83.1K support and $84.9K resistance in focus.
$ETH remains range-bound near $2.7K, while $SOL continues to attract ETF demand but remains highly volatile.
Tomorrow’s NFP may provide the next catalyst. Until then, patience matters more than prediction.
#加息预期推迟，9月非农成下一关键 #交易之声
#USTreasuryYieldsClimb
#Ra