Crypto_猫哥(BTC版）
Crypto_猫哥(BTC版）
推特同名@Crypto_猫哥 币圈八年老韭菜 全世界最全的、最详细的BTC行情分析 点点关注、关注必回
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$BTC
Brothers, you can interact more under my posts
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$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
Conclusion first
We are currently near the end of the bear market. Even to be cautious, you should build a position of 30%
Large funds prioritize BTC/ETH/SOL/OKB
If you don't have much capital, you can lay in some quality altcoins like ENA/AAVE/PUMP
Currently, I have opened a live contract trading on OK Planet, challenging to turn 10,000 into 100,000. Of course, I don't recommend everyone to trade contracts. My large positions are all spot. But without live trading, it's not as engaging. After all, talking is no match for actual operation
I hope brothers can help by following me, I will definitely follow back
Let's all get rich together
$BTC
#BTC Current views are as follows
Plan:
1. Sprint to $83K–$88K — Completed
2. Consolidate around $83K–$85K — Completed
3. Altcoin sprint — Completed
3. The last 5th sub-wave before ABC correction — Completed?
4. ABC correction — In progress
5. BTC buy zone: $72K–$80K
6. BTC surpasses $100K in 2027
What’s next?
We are currently in an ABC correction, and I see two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: $BTC trades sideways in the $80K–$83K+ range before rebounding above $90K+.
Scenario 2: $BTC returns above $83K, then trades sideways in the $80K–$83K+ range, followed by another drop into the $72K–$80K zone. I don’t think it will drop fully to $72K, but it’s possible.
As I warned before, everyone is bottom-fishing and buying, even those who don’t believe in the upward trend. The market needs to cool off, and yesterday we finally had that correction.
Have we bottomed?
I’m not sure, but I’ve started accumulating spot altcoins.
$BTC
Trend: Recently, Bitcoin pulled back after a peak, falling below 82,000 before recovering. My personal view has always been clear: below 82,000 is a bear market consolidation zone. In previous bull markets, when the price dropped to this zone, it always recovered. Therefore, below 82,000 might be the last and best opportunity to get in for those who haven't entered yet.
Viewpoint: Bitcoin has already recovered above 82,000. The long-term cycle has previously established a bottom; whether by pattern or cycle, there are no signs of a bear market. For those calling a bear market, what's your logic? Just a feeling? Or is it your empty positions clouding your judgment?
US Treasury yields remain high, the dollar is rebounding, and crude oil is at elevated levels, which indeed suppresses risk assets like US stocks. However, Bitcoin often falls before US stocks and also rallies before them. If you must find a macro logic, it's that capital rotates and switches between highs and lows. In the long term, Bitcoin and US stocks are positively correlated, and the narrowing of the scissors difference is an inevitable trend.
Strategy: The overall direction remains bullish. If the spot price falls below 82,000, continue to add positions; altcoins should be increased simultaneously. Ethereum and altcoins are very likely to outperform Bitcoin in the future. Washouts are very common during bull markets; hold your spot positions and withstand all winds from all directions.
$BTC
P BTC Market Outlook｜Focus on 82800
To conclude, I currently tend to view this drop as a liquidity hunt, but further confirmation on the daily chart is needed.
From the 4H level, the price broke down but then recovered and has been holding above the blue channel. As long as it doesn't break below, it's not easy to be bearish. The first resistance is at 83900; if it breaks through successfully, the probability of reaching the previous high near 87,000 is 90%.
If the daily candle doesn't close below 81K, I won't be quick to be bearish, especially with this rapid V-shaped rebound, which indicates that support at the low level shouldn't be ignored. After the bulls who chased the rally are shaken out, the market still has the potential to move higher.
However, one last confirmation signal is still missing: whether the daily can firmly hold above 82.8K again.
If you currently have no position and don't want to enter early, you can patiently wait for the daily performance over the weekend or Monday; there's no need to rush to chase.
One detail to note: if this drop is truly a liquidity sweep, then after a quick pullback, the price shouldn't repeatedly fall back to test the same level.
If it falls again and fails to recover for a long time, I will consider this judgment possibly invalid and will reassess the market!
$BTC
BTC has rebounded to yesterday's short position zone but has not yet reached the take-profit level.
Last night, the highest was 83499.9, entering the pressure zone of 83000–83500 given yesterday, then falling back to 82241.5. The first target of 80500 has not been reached yet.
Currently around 82500, the bias for the next 1–3 days remains a rebound short, no chasing shorts at the current position.
1. The rebound has not changed the weak structure
The daily EMA21 and 4-hour EMA21 are both near 83100, and the price is still suppressed below them. In the past 24 hours, the price rose about 1.1%, BTC-denominated OI fell about 0.5%, showing characteristics of short covering, so it cannot be confirmed that bulls are taking over for a breakout.
ETF net outflows totaled about $729 million on October 7–8.
2. Continue to wait for the pressure zone today, no opening positions in the middle
Stay flat and wait for 83000–83500: after a spike, if the price closes below 83000 within 1 hour and the rebound cannot hold above, then consider a small short position. Stop loss at 84400, target first at 80500, then 79000.
Do not add to existing short positions here. There is still support at 81600–81800 below; do not prematurely treat a break below as a waterfall. If the 4-hour candle closes above 83500 and holds on a retest, cancel this short position plan.
$BTC
The current critical level is 84,000
BTC rebounded after hitting the 4-hour MA200 near 80,400, with a bullish MACD crossover at a low level, indicating short-term selling pressure has eased temporarily. However, after rising to 83,000, the momentum clearly slowed down. The range between 83,500 and 84,500 is simultaneously pressured by the previous platform, MA30, and MA120, representing the true boundary between bulls and bears, not something that can be easily broken through with a quick surge.
In the past two days, spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of about $729 million, but the price has not continued to break down, indicating there is support around 80,000; however, funds are still flowing out, making it difficult for this rebound to directly break through 85,000.
Therefore, for the rest of October, it is more likely to be a consolidation and turnover between 80,000 and 85,000 rather than an immediate one-sided move. The path is more likely to first rebound to around 84,000, then retest 81,000 to 82,000. As long as 80,000 holds, after this mid-month correction, there is still a chance to test 85,000 to 87,000; but 87,400 is probably the monthly high for this phase, and the chance of directly surging to 90,000 is low.
For now, treat this rise as a rebound: only a firm break above 85,000 counts as a shift to strength; if it falls below 80,000, the downside target is 77,000 to 78,000.
$BTC
Recently, Bitcoin dropped to around 81500, and many people have started paying attention to the subsequent market trend. Today, I reviewed some opinions from excellent bloggers and summarized two possible scenarios.
1. Bitcoin's false breakdown
Yesterday, there was a large bearish candlestick that broke through the 83000 support zone. Today's bullish candlestick shows signs of a rebound. If no new lows appear in the next couple of days and the price rises back above 83000, then the false breakdown will be confirmed.
This means that the spot sell-off is not severe; it's similar to selling pressure exhaustion. As long as buying comes in, there is a strong possibility of a recovery.
2. Consolidation between 80000 and 83000
The current pattern is very similar to 2023. In the second half of 2023, Bitcoin's lowest point in the consolidation range never broke below 25000. Especially in September and October, after a large bearish candlestick broke through the top of the consolidation range from 29000 USD, Bitcoin oscillated between 25000 and 28000 without breaking the 25000 support. Subsequently, at the end of October, the bull market's main upward wave began.
"I tend to think this correction will reach a level that makes those who chased highs earlier uncomfortable, but the most important thing is not to let those who missed out earlier get in. If everyone is uncomfortable but can't catch the bottom, it will consolidate between 81000 and 83000, which currently has the highest probability. The key level has not been broken, the upward trend remains strong, and the bottom is rising."
$BTC
The wave in March 2023 was not an ordinary correction; it was a cascade of bank system failures combined with reinforced expectations of interest rate hikes. Silvergate liquidation, Powell's testimony hinting at higher and longer-lasting rates, the SVB bank run and takeover, Circle's approximately $3.3 billion exposure at SVB pushing USDC down to around 0.87, and Signature being shut down—all within a few days, liquidity, stablecoins, and custody channels simultaneously faced issues. The probability of such a complete combination happening again is low.
Therefore, directly comparing the current pullback to that event and assuming a break below 75,000 is logically tight. If last night was not the low, it looks more like a further probe into the 78,000–79,000 range in the past couple of days to fully release panic, rather than a trend-breaking support breach.
What’s more worth comparing is the subsequent movement: that early bull run was also marked by rate hike panic and consecutive failures, and after the correction ended, it rallied about 45% within roughly two weeks. Early bull runs often complete accumulation and rallies amid FUD; low-position chips are more valuable than the volatility itself. Don’t get shaken out by a normal pullback.
$BTC
BTC took a breather near support but hasn't reclaimed the pressure yet.
Current price is about 81950. Yesterday's 84000-84400 rebound short was not triggered.
1. The trend is still bearish; wait at the current position first.
Last night’s low was 80350, then it returned above the 4-hour EMA200 around 81621, indicating some support here, so it’s not suitable to chase shorts.
The daily candle has closed below EMA21, and the 4-hour EMA7, 14, 21 are in a bearish alignment. The main resistance has dropped to 83000-83500. This looks more like a rebound after a drop, not a reversal yet.
In the past 24 hours, the price dropped about 2%, OI decreased about 2.57%, with active selling dominance. It looks more like bulls retreating and leverage clearing, not bears aggressively adding positions, and it doesn’t mean the drop is over.
2. Today, prioritize waiting for a rebound short at the resistance zone.
Wait for 83000-83500, if there is a 1-hour spike and pullback, and the rebound fails to hold, then consider a small short position.
Stop loss at 84400, target first at 80500, if it breaks below 80000 then look at 79000. If the 4-hour candle closes back above 83500 and holds on the retest, cancel the short plan.
The funding side hasn’t helped bulls for now: On October 8, the ETF disclosed a net outflow of about $238.6 million. Last night, the US Treasury yield fell at the close, helping BTC rebound, but it hasn’t changed the weak K-line structure yet.
Do not chase shorts now, nor chase rebound longs. Wait for the price to enter an advantageous position before taking action.
$BTC
After BTC formed multiple tops around 8.66, the price quickly dropped close to 6000 points. Here's my personal summary of this round of correction:
1. The US government transferred 12,267 BTC to Coinbase, causing market sentiment fluctuations, but no actual sell-off has been observed so far.
2. The Middle East situation is heating up. Houthi forces attacked a Saudi military airport, resulting in 3 deaths and 12 injuries; Iraq has mobilized two main divisions to prepare for the Houthis, increasing the risk of conflict spillover.
3. The US intends to deploy three more aircraft carriers to the Middle East to pressure Iran, while also stating it will not take military action against Iran before the midterm elections. This contradictory stance—deploying forces while denying intent—is mostly interpreted by the market as a clear negative.
4. Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see net outflows, with no signs of institutional accumulation; retail funds are more likely following institutional trends.
Back to the market, BTC is currently oscillating around 8.17. The macro-level negatives have largely been released. From a macro perspective, I still believe this is a bull market, and value coins can be accumulated on dips
$BTC
The overall short-term cycle remains bearish, but the bottom divergence caused by the increased negative deviation reduces the likelihood of continuous short-term declines. The short-term cycle mainly focuses on sideways consolidation after testing the lows.
Around 819 is a critical watershed. As long as it is not effectively broken downward, one can wait for the short-term cycle to first break through and then retest for confirmation before entering a second time; once it is effectively broken downward, it is necessary to prepare orders in advance according to the downward space decline strategy.
During the writing process, the aggressive buying point mentioned earlier around 81910 has already been touched by a wick, but the initial rebound amplitude is limited, so repeated operations around this area are not recommended. The support corresponding to the lower edge of the small daily box is still in place.
With the short-term cycle pressure moving down, the rebound space has significantly shrunk, and the new support has also moved down by about 500 points, so direct entry is not recommended. A safer approach is to wait for bullish structures like a W-bottom to appear on the 15-minute to 30-minute levels, then break through and retest. For now, the order-taking range can be lowered to 81423–81048, handling it with quick in-and-out trades.
Short-term support is seen at 78722–77749, suitable for watching the short-term cycle to catch rebounds; the second support is at 73787–72111, which can be considered for low buying if the price reaches there. Short-term resistance is at 83936–84710, with the second resistance at 86380–87057.