#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 The global long-term government bond yields have collectively hit multi-year highs, essentially reflecting an upward shift in the global asset pricing anchor. This is a macro-level systemic bearish factor and the fundamental reason for the recent sustained pressure on the crypto market. 1. Three main reasons for this rise 1. Inflation rebound + renewed rate hike expectations Tensions in the Middle East have pushed oil prices higher, with Brent crude stabilizing above $100, reigniting inflation expectations. The recently released September FOMC minutes were hawkish, with most officials keeping the option of further rate hikes this year, erasing the market's previous hopes for rapid rate cuts. 2. Huge fiscal deficits in the US and Europe, surge in long-term bond supply The US government debt is massive, requiring continuous large-scale issuance of long-term bonds for financing; the market worries about debt sustainability, so investors demand higher term premiums to hold long bonds, leading to bond sell-offs and rising yields. This is not just the US; long bonds in the UK, Germany, and Japan are also weakening simultaneously, a global phenomenon. 3. Long-term funds actively reducing long-duration bond holdings Large overseas asset management institutions are continuously lowering their long bond positions, no longer blindly buying bonds, further amplifying selling pressure and extending the bond adjustment cycle. 2. Transmission logic to various asset classes Long bonds represent global risk-free returns. The higher the yield, the more funds are willing to buy government bonds for stable interest, withdrawing from high-volatility assets. • The US dollar passively strengthens, further compressing the valuation space for risk assets. • High-valuation growth stocks and the Nasdaq face pressure, with assets that realize returns in the long term being discounted. • Gold and silver face short-term pressure as the holding cost of non-yielding assets rises

#ETF is still flowing in, so why is BTC falling? ETFs represent incremental off-exchange buying, but the short-term price movement is determined by on-exchange selling pressure; when on-exchange sell orders significantly exceed ETF purchases, a divergence occurs where funds flow in but the coin price drops. 1. ETF buying power is limited and cannot withstand selling pressure Many people directly consider ETF net inflows as strong bullish signals, but two key points are often overlooked: 1. Although there have been net inflows on many recent trading days, the daily inflow scale has significantly shrunk compared to earlier periods, representing weak inflows and inherently weak buying support. 2. There is a time lag between ETF funds arriving and BTC subscription; it is not immediate, so it cannot instantly support the market. 3. ETFs are just one of many sources of capital and not the sole market pricing force. 2. Whales and old coins concentrate on cashing out, directly hedging ETF buying This is the main on-exchange counterparty • High-level trapped positions and long-term holding whales sell off in batches during each rebound, with single sell orders far exceeding the daily ETF purchases. • As long as whales keep distributing, even if institutions keep buying through ETFs, the exchange market still has supply exceeding demand, naturally putting price under pressure. 3. Macro bearish factors outweigh capital bullishness (currently the most critical) The just-released FOMC minutes sent a hawkish signal, with most officials retaining expectations for one more rate hike, combined with rising long-term US Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. • As long as US Treasury yields rise, valuations of high-volatility risk assets will be passively revised downward, impacting the crypto market.

#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 This minutes are clearly hawkish, conflicting with the recent market expectations of easing. 1. The September rate hike was unanimously approved, with most officials at the time judging that another hike within the year was appropriate. The main concerns were that oil prices and geopolitical conflicts would continue to push inflation higher, and the current interest rate level was insufficient to suppress prices. 2. However, this does not mean an immediate rate hike in October. Market pricing shows a low probability of a rate hike in October; the tightening window is most likely to fall in December. The Fed retains flexibility to "decide based on data," not a hard commitment. 3. Officials believe the U.S. economy is very resilient, with strong consumption and business investment. Even though long-term bond yields have risen, the overall financial environment remains relatively loose, leaving room for inflation to rebound. This is the fundamental reason they are reluctant to stop hiking rates too early. Impact on the market The minutes are a bearish realization. • After the news, the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are likely to strengthen again in the short term, while U.S. stocks and crypto assets will come under pressure, with high-volatility assets facing greater suppression. • However, the market had already priced in some rate hike concerns in advance, so a direct one-sided large drop is not certain; it is more likely to see a rise followed by a fall and repeated fluctuations. • As long as subsequent non-farm payroll and inflation data weaken significantly, this expectation of further rate hikes will quickly cool down. Implications for the crypto market • The renewed rise in tight monetary expectations at the macro level will limit the height of this rebound, making it difficult to start a large-scale rally directly. • In the short term, it is easy to see "the good news is fully priced in"