#US10YearYieldBreaks5%

$BTC is facing a very different test this week. The Fed is expected to make its policy decision while oil prices have surged above $100 and Treasury yields have moved higher. That's not exactly the perfect environment for risk assets. And yet Bitcoin is still holding around the upper-$70K area. That's what I'm watching. Not whether someone predicts $80K or $70K. I want to see how BTC behaves when the macro environment becomes uncomfortable. If Bitcoin can absorb stronger yields, a stronger dollar and geopolitical pressure without completely losing its structure, that's meaningful. The reaction matters more than the headline. #US10YearYieldBreaks5% #RobinhoodTokenNewRights #US10YearYieldBreaks5%

The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.01% on Sept 14, crossing 5% for the first time since Oct 2023 and reaching its highest intraday level since July 2007. It started the year near 4.15%. Nine months later, that is about +86bps. The pressure is not from one source: · Oil above $100 is keeping energy-driven inflation pressure alive · Headline CPI held at 3.4%, while core rose 0.3% MoM · Markets now price around 89%-90% odds of a 25bps Fed hike on Wednesday, the first hike since 2023 if delivered · Treasury supply remains heavy, while AI-driven corporate debt issuance is competing for capital · The NY Fed's ACM term premium model is back in positive territory, meaning investors are demanding extra return to hold long-duration paper · Markets are also pricing a possible BoJ hike to 1.25% this week, while the ECB remains hawkish The whole curve is repricing: 30-year yields are around 5.35%, while the 2-year sits near 4.66%. At 5% risk-free, the calculus shifts. Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage benchmark is at 6.76%. Equity models run with a higher discount rate. Corporate borrowing costs rise. Capital that once had to chase yield now has a simpler alternative. The interesting part is BTC. Around $77K-$78K today, it is roughly flat while equities fell. Gold also pulled back. That divergence is worth watching, but it still needs confirmation. The real event risk is not just the yield print. It is Wednesday's updated dot plot. June's median dot implied one hike for 2026. If September shows two, or if Chair Warsh signals higher-for-longer at the press conference, the 5% handle could get stickier. Is 5% a temporary pressure point for BTC, or the start of a new macro ceiling? #US10YearYieldBreaks5%

🚨BREAKING🚨 Global bond yields are exploding. Markets are feeling it. • US 10Y: 5% (highest since 2007) • UK 10Y: 5.4% (highest since 2007) • Japan 10Y: 3% (highest since 1996) • US 30Y: 5.4% (highest since 2004) • France 10Y: 4.5% (highest since 2008) • Germany 10Y: 3.5% (highest since 2009) Meanwhile: 👇 - Bitcoin falls below $77,000 - Ethereum loses $2,500 $90B wiped from crypto in just 12 hours

#US10YearYieldBreaks5% The market just got a 5% alternative to taking risk 👀 The US 10-year briefly crossed 5% as $100+ oil, Fed hike bets, Treasury supply and AI financing all pushed yields higher. At these levels, stocks and crypto must compete harder for every dollar. What caught my attention is BTC holding up anyway. If Bitcoin can stay resilient while risk-free yields hover near 5%, that may tell us more about underlying demand than another rally in easy liquidity.

Bitcoin’s weakness has not been caused by regulation alone. U.S. Treasury yields have climbed sharply, with the 10-year yield moving above 5%, while higher oil prices have increased concerns about inflation. These conditions can put pressure on risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

5% just became crypto’s most expensive number. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield crossed 5% for the first time since October 2023, while Brent trades near $107 and markets lean heavily toward a Fed hike Wednesday. When “risk-free” money pays 5%, capital has to fight harder for every dollar. Crypto’s next battle may be happening in the bond market, not on-chain. Image suggestion — separate: U.S. Treasury/bond-yield chart showing the 10-year crossing 5%, from today’s coverage #FOMCRateCallThisWeek

BREAKING: Rep. Jim Himes asks Bessent how his bond intervention was "successful" when the 10-year yield rose 20 basis points afterward. Bessent says things would have been worse without it. He says the two best Treasury auctions in 20 years happened right after, calling the US the best performing bond market in the developed world since Trump took office. $BTC

Tonight at 10 PM, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will attend a House hearing. Currently, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is running at a high level, and the market is highly focused on her statements regarding the fiscal deficit, Treasury issuance, and long-term bond repurchase plans.#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #OracleAICloudUp121% #FOMCRateCallThisWeek

Now the real trading of BTC and ETH is no longer just about a CPI report, nor just about an interest rate hike. The market is repeatedly testing Wash's determination to control inflation. As long as the real yields on 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year Treasury bonds cannot be pushed down, I think BTC and ETH will find it hard to enter a truly comfortable one-sided trend. #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #AIAnxietyHitsChipStocks #SaudiOilPipelineDamaged

#SaudiOilPipelineDamaged Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline struck September 10 — still offline, pump stations damaged, capacity out for weeks 🛢️💀 This isn't a minor disruption. The pipeline carries 2.6M-4.0M bpd and is the primary Hormuz bypass route for Red Sea crude. Yanbu port stocks cover only 5-7 days of exports. Up to 4% of global supply affected 📉 Then September 14: Houthi forces seized the Hanish Islands, raising shipping risk near Bab-el-Mandeb. Hormuz bypass damaged. Bab-el-Mandeb now threatened. Both major alternative routes under pressure simultaneously 👀 This is the energy supply shock scenario that was supposed to be the tail risk — and it's happening 🫠 Pipeline recovery timeline becomes the single most important variable for Saudi export capacity right now. Every week offline = more pressure on global crude pricing and inflation expectations 🔥 4% of global supply disrupted, both bypass routes compromised — how far does oil go from here, and does this force the Fed's hand on September rates? 👇