
#CPIToResetFedBets
About CPIToResetFedBets
July U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000, with May-June revised down by 103,000, cutting September hike bets. Polymarket puts hold odds at ~63%, Kalshi ~65%, while CME FedWatch shows ~55.6% for no hike and ~44.4% for a 25 bp hike. Wednesday's July CPI is the next test: headline inflation is forecast to ease from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY and core from 2.6% to 2.5%, though core services may stay sticky. For crypto, will CPI confirm cooling inflation or revive September hike pricing?
رائج
الأحدث
CPIToResetFedBets المنشورات الشائعة
$BTC Is the sentiment really this bad now? Yesterday I saw BTC stagnating, and I thought maybe all the funds were waiting on the CPI. But the CPI hasn't even been released yet, and it already dropped below 64,000 last night? I guess some institutions are betting on the CPI exceeding expectations.
1. This week's market mainly depends on tomorrow's CPI data: the expectation is a year-over-year 3.42%, core 2.52%. If it's below expectations, it could mean no rate hike or even a rate cut, and BTC would go up; if it exceeds expectations, it will break below 62,000.
2. Institutions had net inflows yesterday, indicating some funds are withdrawing, probably because some institutions speculate the CPI data will exceed expectations. The current fear and greed index is 31, sentiment is positive, so retail investors probably won't run.
3. Regarding the CPI data and last week's non-farm payroll data, some friends asked if there could be falsification. It's actually quite possible, but consider this: government falsification is also to serve monetary policy. Non-farm payroll and CPI data themselves are meant to serve normal monetary functions, so even if falsified, interpreting policy from the data is still reasonable.
But I don't recommend betting on the CPI in advance, because retail investors' information sources are still much worse than institutions. Don't turn investing into a game of betting on size or luck. #本周三CPI公布,9月加息定价会改写吗? #AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #AIInfraFundingDiverges

🚨 TOMORROW COULD BE MORE IMPORTANT THAN TODAY FOR CRYPTO. 👀
Altseason watch is getting interesting.
The market is heading into a major macro catalyst: U.S. CPI. And traders are already positioning before the number even drops.
$BTC is holding around $65K, while combined $BTC and $ETH ETF flows have pulled in roughly $1.1B over the past week. 💰
That’s the part I’m watching closely.
Capital is moving into crypto before a broader altcoin rotation has even started.
If CPI comes in softer than expected → 📉 yields could ease → 💧 liquidity could improve → 🚀 risk appetite could expand.
But if inflation surprises higher, expect volatility.
Either way, tomorrow could give us a much clearer signal about where the next major move is coming from.
Don’t chase the altseason narrative yet. Watch the liquidity first. 👀
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #Nvidia500BAIInfra #AIInfraFundingDiverges
$BTC $ETH
#DailyOrbit
☀️ GOOD MORNING CRYPTO — $BTC IS HOLDING, BUT THE REAL TEST IS TOMORROW. 👀
The market starts Tuesday in a waiting mode.
$BTC remains around the $65K zone, while $ETH is holding near $1.9K and $SOL continues to show relative strength. Recent trading has been relatively compressed as investors position ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report.
And there’s a reason the market is paying attention.
Spot $BTC and $ETH ETFs attracted roughly $1.1B combined last week, giving crypto a meaningful institutional-demand backdrop even as prices remain near resistance.
Now comes the macro test.
🇺🇸 JULY CPI — WEDNESDAY
The BLS is scheduled to release the July CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET on August 12.
Markets are watching whether inflation confirms or challenges the current Fed narrative.
🟢 Cooler CPI
→ Softer inflation pressure
→ Potentially lower yields
→ Stronger risk appetite
→ $BTC breakout attempt
→ More room for altcoin rotation
🔴 Hotter CPI
→ Higher-for-longer expectations
→ Yield pressure
→ Stronger dollar risk
→ Crypto volatility
But there’s another variable:
Positioning.
If traders have already positioned for a friendly CPI print, even a “good” number may not be enough to sustain a rally.
That’s why the reaction matters more than the headline.
👀 LEVELS TO WATCH
₿ $BTC: $65K → $65.5K resistance zone
♦️ $ETH: $1,900 key support
⚡ $SOL: relative-strength watch
The market has the liquidity narrative.
It has the ETF-flow narrative.
Now it needs confirmation.
🔥 CPI could determine whether this consolidation becomes the launchpad for the next move — or another failed breakout.
Stay patient. Watch yields, the dollar, ETF flows and spot volume.
The next big move may start with one inflation number.
DYOR. Not financial advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BICO $BEAT $SOL
#CPIToResetFedBets #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Crypto #ETF #Macro #Altcoins #DailyOrbit #OKXOrbit
#AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #Nvidia500BAIInfra

THE MARKET IS FULL OF BULLISH NEWS—SO WHY IS MONEY STILL STAYING ON THE SIDELINES?
At first glance, this should be a bullish environment for crypto.
Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continue attracting strong institutional inflows. Expectations for future Fed easing remain alive. Financial institutions are expanding their crypto offerings, while regulators continue improving the industry's framework. Yet prices remain sluggish, and liquidity remains weak.
The issue isn't a lack of positive news—it's a lack of confidence and fresh capital.
The biggest catalyst investors are waiting for is the upcoming U.S. CPI report. Inflation data could reshape expectations for the Federal Reserve's next policy move, so institutions prefer staying cautious before deploying new capital.
At the same time, geopolitical uncertainty between the United States and Iran remains a major risk. Unresolved tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue supporting higher oil prices, increasing fears that inflation could stay elevated and keep Fed policy restrictive. As a result, many funds are maintaining defensive positions instead of adding exposure to crypto.
Much of the bullish news has already been priced in. Strong ETF inflows are largely being absorbed by profit-taking, leaving prices trapped in a narrow range.
Spot trading volumes also remain subdued, while many retail investors are waiting for a deeper pullback instead of chasing higher prices. The market continues consolidating despite positive headlines.
The encouraging sign is that smart money hasn't left. Institutions continue accumulating through ETFs, but gradually rather than aggressively.
If CPI comes in below expectations, U.S.–Iran tensions ease, and the Fed turns more dovish, sidelined capital could return quickly.
If you found this analysis valuable, follow me for timely updates, in-depth insights, and professional commentary on the latest developments across both the crypto market and Wall Street.
#CPIToResetFedBets
#BTCETHETFInflowsReturn
#HormuzDealStillPending
$BTC
$ETH
🌙 CRYPTO IS TOO QUIET RIGHT NOW… AND THAT’S EXACTLY WHAT HAS MY ATTENTION. 👀
Bitcoin isn’t breaking down.
It isn’t breaking out either.
$BTC is sitting around $65K, $ETH is defending the $1,900 area, and $SOL is showing stronger relative strength.
That tells me one thing:
The market is waiting.
And the next big catalyst is CPI. 🇺🇸
Wednesday’s inflation data could be the spark that finally breaks this range.
📉 If CPI comes in cooler
→ Inflation pressure could ease
→ Treasury yields may fall
→ Fed-cut expectations could strengthen
→ Risk assets and crypto could catch a bid 🚀
📈 If CPI comes in hotter
→ Yields could rise
→ The dollar could strengthen
→ Rate-cut expectations may get pushed back
→ Crypto leverage could get squeezed ⚠️
But CPI isn't the only thing I’m watching.
Institutional flows matter too. 💰
If BTC and ETH ETF demand continues while macro conditions improve, a breakout could have much stronger fuel behind it.
👀 My watchlist tonight:
₿ $BTC — Can $65K turn into real support?
♦️ $ETH — Can $1,900 continue to hold?
⚡ $SOL — Can it maintain its relative strength?
💰 ETF flows — Is institutional demand actually increasing?
📊 CPI — Does it finally bring the volatility back?
Here’s my biggest takeaway:
I don’t want to guess the breakout. I want to see it confirmed.
Because in a quiet market, the first move after CPI can be a trap.
Patience beats FOMO.
The market is quiet now. It may not stay that way for long. 👀
What are you expecting after CPI — breakout, breakdown, or more chop?
Drop your view below. 👇
DYOR. Not financial advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Solana #CPI #ETF #Altcoins #Macro #CryptoTrading #OKX #OKXOrbitTopics #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge
#DailyOrbit
🌍 One CPI Number Could Reprice the Entire Crypto Setup
This is what I think. What You See about it? Tell me in comments.
The recent BTC sell-off has made this week's CPI even more important.
BTC moved sharply lower from the $65K area, while ETH also lost momentum.
The short-term bullish structure is no longer as clean as it was.
Now the market has a new question:
Will inflation confirm the recent weakness or reverse it?
A softer CPI could reinforce expectations for monetary easing and potentially bring buyers back into BTC and ETH.
A hotter CPI could have the opposite effect by pushing yields and rate expectations higher.
But there's a second layer traders often miss:
Market positioning.
If too many traders are already short before CPI, a mildly favorable number could trigger a sharp squeeze.
If the market is heavily positioned for a soft CPI and the data disappoints, the downside reaction could be equally aggressive.
So I'm watching both:
📊 The CPI number
📈 The reaction function
Not just the headline.
The first candle is information, not necessarily the trade.
$BTC $ETH #CPI #CryptoTrading #Macro #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH #AIInfraEarningsWatch #CPIToResetFedBets #Nvidia500BAIInfra
كنت أذكر الجميع بأن يكونوا حذرين من هذا الدافع الصعودي للبيتكوين، لكنني عالق. الليلة، كأنني فقدت عقلي، أضيف موقعي عندما ينخفض
أصبح الموقف أثقل أكثر فأكثر، مما أجبر في النهاية على إيقاف خسارة كملاذ أخير. بعد ذلك، يعتمد الأمر على ما إذا كان 63,000 قادرا على الصمود
شخصيا، أشعر أنه لا يمكن أن يصمد. من المرجح أن تختبر هذه الجولة السوق تحت 62,000، وقد خسرت المال بالفعل
واجه فخلا آخر وتعلم المزيد $BTC #本周三CPI公布: هل سيتم إعادة كتابة تسعير رفع أسعار الفائدة في سبتمبر؟
The return of BTC and ETH ETF inflows is not enough to call a durable turn while both assets are still trading lower on the day. At $64,038, BTC looks more like it is absorbing demand than responding to it, which keeps my near-term bias cautious.
CPI is the cleaner catalyst now. Until it resets Fed expectations, crypto may remain caught between improving structural flows and tighter macro sensitivity. SOL’s relative resilience is notable, but not yet broad confirmation of risk appetite.
Not advice, just analysis.
🚨 BREAKING: BIG U.S. MARKET WEEK AHEAD CORE CPI COULD SET THE NEXT MAJOR MOVE FOR STOCKS, GOLD & CRYPTO!
Markets are heading into a high-volatility week with several major U.S. economic releases on the calendar.
Wednesday: CPI inflation
Thursday: PPI, Jobless Claims + 2 Fed officials speaking
Friday: Retail Sales + Consumer Sentiment
The key event is Core CPI. Cooler inflation and weaker spending could push rate-hike expectations lower, supporting stocks, $XAU and crypto. But hotter inflation and strong consumer data could lift Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on risk assets.
⚠️ Expect sharp moves around the data releases. This week could define the market’s next direction. $BTC
#CPIToResetFedBets #AIMemorySelloffEases #BTCETHETFInflowsReturn
#CPIToResetFedBets $BTC $ETH
US CPI will be the next test for Fed expectations.
Following weaker-than-expected jobs data, the market is scaling back expectations for a Fed rate hike in September.
If CPI continues to cool, pressure on BTC and crypto could ease.
However, a hotter-than-expected CPI reading could cause the market to reprice its outlook on Fed policy.
$BTC BTC Holds $65,234 – Awaiting CPI Spark
Bitcoin is trading at $65,234, up 0.5% in 24 hours, with weekly gains of nearly 3%.
Drivers: Last Friday's US jobs report unexpectedly showed a drop of 23,000 – cooling labor market eased rate-hike fears, fueling a broad risk-asset rebound. Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a single-day net inflow of $853M – the strongest weekly performance since April.
Key risk: Wednesday's US July CPI report. Oil is nearing $85 amid geopolitical tensions – if inflation surprises to the upside, it could reverse the current momentum.
Technically: $65,000 is a major psychological level. Sell walls are concentrated near $65,238 – a break above could target the $66,000–$67,000 resistance zone.
Before CPI, are you positioning or staying on the sidelines?#本周三CPI公布,9月加息定价会改写吗? #存储股抛压缓和,AI内存牛市还稳吗? #现货ETF资金回流,BTC与ETH能否接力? $ETH $BICO