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U.S. Treasury yields pressing down, crypto market dozing off
$BTC 84463, 4-hour SAR at 85780 pressing down, RSI 49, MACD underwater, grinding back and forth between 84000—85000. U.S. Treasuries are too fierce: 10-year at 5%, 30-year once at 5.444%, a new high in 22 years, risk-free returns are drawing away off-exchange funds. Although ETF net inflow is 347 million, IBIT accounts for 166 million, shorts were liquidated by 12.26 million in one hour, still like using a water gun to put out a fire. BTC support at 82800, resistance at 85000, break either way follows that side.
$ETH 2685 weaker, moving averages converging at 2677—2712, SAR 2713, RSI 47.59. Vitalik calls for STARK acceleration, market does not respond; ETH ETF had a net outflow of 141 million last week. Support at 2626, losing that looks at 2600.
$ZEC 1538 up 1.47%, a bright spot in stagnant waters. Privacy sector market cap rose from 11.97 billion to 36.51 billion in May, ZEC contributed 20.27 billion; Grayscale ZCSH had net inflows exceeding 500 million for 16 consecutive days, shorts lost 36 million. Range 1455—1680, RSI 51, watching if it can break 1650. Mid-term compliance logic unchanged.
Strategy: BTC 84000, ETH 2626 are lifelines, hold to sideways, break down reduce; control your hands, wait for direction. Not investment advice. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 The first month's report card was just submitted, and the market immediately responded: "Graduation is fine, but no vacation." Today BTC is fluctuating around 84,000U, after previously touching 87,000 and starting to digest the gains. A bigger variable is that nearly $18 billion worth of BTC+ETH options expire today; such a large quarterly settlement can easily cause short-term prices to be pulled in multiple directions simultaneously. The good news is that the funding side hasn't completely cooled off: the US spot BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $5.8 billion earlier this year, but has now reversed to about $800 million net inflow. The market can be stubborn, but money is generally more honest. On the other hand, altcoins are quite lively today, with 93 out of 100 in the CoinDesk 100 rising; despite Bitget just experiencing a roughly $350 million security incident, the market surprisingly did not collectively give up. The crypto world is sometimes just like this. Today's live trading｜Day 31 Return rate: +2.56% Profitable days: 27 / Losing days: 4 Win rate: 87.10% Profit-loss ratio: 2.00 : 1 Yesterday was +1.98%, today directly pushed to +2.56%. However, the easiest mistake to make at this point is to start calculating retirement age in your head right after producing a nice monthly report. Day 31, the second month starts work. The first month was responsible for building confidence, the second month is responsible for verifying whether that confidence was an illusion. #LiveTrading #QuantitativeTrading Two days ago it dumped and the whole group was screaming "waterfall incoming, short it to 1200". I got excited too, thought my short would finally be saved. But exactly because EVERYONE shouted short, too many shorts piled in recklessly, funding went -0.3% and boom - today it squeezes back up. Trading ZEC you really can't just brainlessly short. My take - this wave is not done, it won't close below *1650* today. Let's look at the data now: *$ZEC now at $1678.4, +5.1% in 24H.* Yesterday low was *$UNI outperformed the market today with a +1.45% gain, but don't forget, its own L2 Unichain is competing for Ethereum's business, yet none of the sequencer fees go into UNI's pocket.
Current price is 9.21, up 1.45%, market cap 5.73 billion, 24h volume 1.14 billion, circulating supply 620 million tokens, down 80% from the 44.97 high. The protocol matched 1.1 billion USD today, fees went to LPs and the treasury, with zero dividends to token holders.
Unichain is UNI ecosystem's L2; TVL and sequencer revenue are rising, but this money goes to on-chain validators and the treasury, UNI holders still receive zero dividends. Secondary point: the so-called value capture is just sticking others' growth onto UNI's own K-line, with no real cash arriving in wallets. The narrative is only 30% true.
Risk is neutral to bearish, support at 8.5, target 10, reduce position if it falls below 8.2, position size 15%. UNI's rise is a mirror market, not its own cash flow. No matter how hot L2 gets, no dividends for holders is just empty joy. Conclusion first: The rise is real, but don't chase at 84400—that's someone else's cost.
Why say this wave is "steady but not strong": price rises, but open interest does not. BTC open interest is 95,515 contracts, 12% lower than 109,189 contracts on 9/22, indicating short covering + spot buying, not new leverage buildup.
An overlooked signal: BTC funding rate has turned negative at -0.0013%/8h, shorts are paying longs. Price rises while shorts keep adding, this is short squeeze fuel.
How to buy (in plain language):
① If you have no position: wait for a pullback to 83600-83900 to enter 1/3, then 83000-83200 to enter another 1/3, keep 1/3 cash. Stop loss at 82300 (based on daily close, ignore wicks). Take profit half at 85200, then half again at 87200. Risk 1300 points to gain 2800 points, risk-reward ratio about 2.2:1.
② If you have a position: don't add, move stop loss to 83300.
③ If you want to bet on a breakout: wait for 4-hour close above 85300 to follow, stop loss at 84300, position no more than 1/5.
Three conditions not to buy: daily close below 82300; funding rate turns positive and exceeds +0.03%/8h; open interest surges 10% in one day but price does not rise.
Focus on spot, avoid using futures. I will admit I'm wrong if daily close holds above 87500.*2780* can't even hold now. This bounce might be done. My $ETH short - average *2658*, now price is hovering at *2775*, floating loss still *-3,850U*. It's painful but still within plan. Previous high was *2855* two days ago, and since then it's been lower highs. *2780* has been tested 4 times today and keeps getting rejected. Classic exhaustion. I'm just waiting for US open tonight. If *2760* breaks, I think we can drag *2700-2680* down quickly. --- $XPL was wild today, spiked straight to *0.14I rarely short because the returns from shorting are far lower than going long. Teacher Fu once said a profound truth: shorting is like a discount, going long is like doubling.
An asset can only fall to zero at most; it cannot go negative. I know what you're thinking, don't bring up extreme cases like crude oil futures. In the spot market without leverage, the price falling to zero is the limit, and the maximum profit a short seller can make is this 100% drop. But what about going long? There is absolutely no ceiling upwards; theoretically, there is unlimited upside potential.
Think about Bitcoin many years ago—who would have thought it could reach over $80,000 today? If you went long at a low point, even with a small investment, that would be hundreds or thousands of times the return. If you had shorted, you would have been crushed by the wheels of history long ago. Look at Ethereum, climbing from a few dozen dollars to now around 2700 or 2800, wiping out many shorts who thought they were smart. The recent example of ZEC is even more vivid, soaring from a few hundred dollars to over 1600.
Shorting means betting on a drop, living in constant fear of a short squeeze, at best making discounted profits, and a slight negative event can blow you up; going long means betting on the future, betting on technological breakthroughs and consensus expansion. Once you catch the right wave, the asset multiplies upward.
Short less, go long more. The big trend is always upward; human wealth and consensus are expanding. Shorting is against the trend, going long is with the trend.
Remember, you can't do business at a discount; if we want to make money, we make big money by doubling!$BTC $xMSTR On September 25, 2023, MicroStrategy submitted a brief 8-K filing to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The document contained two nearly identical figures. The first figure was $147.3 million. Between August 1 and September 24, MicroStrategy purchased approximately 5,445 bitcoins, spending about $147.3 million in total, with an average price of $27,053 per bitcoin, fees included. The second figure was also $147.3 million. During the same period, the company issued and sold 403,362 Class A common shares in the open market, netting approximately $147.3 million after sales commissions. The filing did not specify that every dollar was designated for this batch of bitcoins, but the two amounts align almost perfectly. The company issued new shares to the market and then converted the proceeds into bitcoin. The dates also need to be distinguished clearly. The 5,445 bitcoins were not purchased all at once on September 25. The actual purchase period spanned from August 1 to September 24; September 25 was the date the company officially disclosed the transactions. SEC records show the filing was made public at 8:00:52 AM Eastern Time on that day, which converts to 8:00:52 PM Taiwan Time, still on September 25. After completing this purchase, MicroStrategy and its subsidiaries held approximately 158,245 bitcoins, with a cumulative purchase cost of about $4.68 billion.Waiting for the drop tonight, not in a rush to close. My $ETH short from *2745* is still holding, price is chopping around *2790-2805* now, floating loss around *-680U*. Manageable. On the 1H chart, MA5 / MA10 / MA20 are all squeezed tight around *2780*. The strong uptrend from yesterday has stalled and gone into consolidation. Moving averages converging = bulls vs bears in a stalemate here, waiting for US session. My plan is still the same: As long as *2815-2830* holds as resistance, I keep looChecked the 30-day stats today and it hurts to look - total contract loss *-$186*, win rate *31%*, profit-loss ratio *0.08*. Basically 12 losses for 1 small win. Why so ugly? Looked at my history: Last 10 days I was in full bear brain. Short *$ETH from 2,920* -> stopped at 3,050. Short *$ZEC from 265* -> it squeezed to 312. Short *$ONE at 0.018* -> got wicked out at 0.024. Same mistake 3 times. Yes, $BTC did drop from *93,200 to 90,500*, $ETH fell from *3,110 to 2,860*, alts bled 10-15%. But thaSUI is finally starting to get interesting this round.
Yesterday it was still hovering around $1, but today it surged straight up to $1.12+, with a 24-hour increase exceeding 17% at one point, and a cumulative 7-day increase already over 40%.
What’s even more worth watching isn’t the price itself, but:
The volume is picking up too.
The 24-hour trading volume has reached about $1.3B, indicating this isn’t just an “air pump” with no real trading.
Several catalysts have coincidentally stacked up recently:
The DeepBook App just launched its Alpha on the Sui Mainnet, starting to integrate Spot + Margin + Prediction Market into a single entry point; meanwhile, activity on Sui ecosystem DEXs has clearly heated up.
So the market formed a very typical chain:
Ecosystem catalysts → On-chain activity increases → SUI breaks $1 → Momentum funds enter → Shorts cover → Gains amplify further.
But what I’m most interested in now isn’t whether SUI can keep surging.
It’s:
Whether $1.10 can turn from resistance into support.
If after the rise it can still digest chips above $1.10, the quality of this rally will be much better than a simple short squeeze.
If it quickly falls back below $1, then today’s big bullish candle needs to be interpreted differently.PEPE has surged 9.45% handily in 24 hours, but when I open its structural diagram—there’s not a single reinforcement bar added, and the foundation depth remains unchanged at one meter. This isn’t a structural upgrade; it’s an illegal additional floor.
Having designed for thirty years, I’ve seen too many facades like this: aluminum panels slapped on, lights turned on, looking like landmarks from afar, but up close, even the expansion joints are crooked. $PEPE is exactly in this state now—its 1-hour RSI has already burned up to 67.19, crossing the 64 thermal red line I recognize, with the full live load pressing on the topmost floor slab. Meanwhile, the daily RSI is only 60.71, which means the bottom concrete hasn’t fully cured yet, but three floors have already been built above.
The position further illustrates the problem. The current price is only 0.44% below the 4-hour upper band, meaning the roof purlin is directly pressed against the capping line with no elasticity at all. The Bollinger Bands channel width is only 13.06% on the 1-hour and 11.46% on the 4-hour—this is a shear wall forcibly tightened, with stress still accumulating internally, bound to find cracks to release eventually.
My approach is very architectural: I don’t take orders at the current price but place a limit short order at 0.0(5)3154, which is 7.24% above the current price. That spot is about 3.9% higher than the 1-hour upper band, a typical cantilever eave. The longer the cantilever, the sharper the setback—that’s mechanics, not emotion.
The first take-profit target is set at 0.0(5)2547, 13.40% below the current price, precisely penetrating the load-bearing zone formed by the overlap of the 4-hour lower band at 2617 and the 1-hour lower band at 2651. This zone is the foundational beam of the entire upward framework; once breached, all the nine-day gains above are illegal construction area. The second take-profit target is 0.0(5)2617, 11.02% below the current price, closing near the 4-hour lower band, a conservative placement.
Stop loss is set at 0.0(5)3527, 19.93% above the current price, allowing an 11.83% margin of error from the entry price. This gap is the construction tolerance I leave for myself; exceeding this deflection proves my structural judgment is flawed, and I’ll admit it.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.0(5)3154 (current price +7.24%)
Take Profit 1: 0.0(5)2547 (-13.40%)
Take Profit 2: 0.0(5)2617 (-11.02%)
Stop Loss: 0.0(5)3527 (+19.93%)
Heights poured by emotion never enter the completed floor area.Old Coin Riot: It's Not the "Old Leaders" Returning, but the Chips Are Speaking
Recently, UNI, BCH, and NEAR have experienced consecutive fluctuations, bringing the "old leader coins" back into the spotlight. The issue isn't that they've suddenly become young again, but that the market has adopted a new aesthetic: when incremental funds are absent, whoever has a lighter supply and more stable chips is more likely to be ignited.
The biggest advantage of old coins is that time has completed their shakeout. After years of bull and bear cycles, early floating chips have sunk to the bottom, most tokens are fully circulated, there are no concentrated unlocks, and no massive selling pressure. At this point, even a small catalyst can leverage the price. The saying "no selling pressure is good news" is especially true in a stock game.
Each of the three coins has its highlights. UNI's turning point lies in the fee switch expectation: once protocol revenue is linked to token value, it transforms from a governance symbol into an interest-bearing asset that can calculate cash flow. BCH is betting on compliance spillover: after BTC and ETH ETFs, funds will look for the next familiar, reasonably liquid compliant target, and the payment narrative has been revisited. NEAR relies on transformation: no longer confined to the old L1, it is cutting into AI Agents and chain abstraction, using new stories to cover old trapped positions.
This round of old coin market may not be a full spring, but more like a structural revival. Funds are risk-averse and begin to price in the fact of "having survived several cycles." Compared to flashy whitepapers, clean chips, clear catalysts, and no unlocking pressure are even rarer. If old coins want to truly welcome spring, they can't rely on nostalgia alone; they must prove they still have new narratives, new cash flows, or new compliance entry points. Bitget was hacked for over 300 million dollars in the middle of the night. Bitcoin didn't move much, but altcoins are still rising. For now, I'm not keeping my money on exchanges. $ZEC $BTC $ETH I've been playing for many years and losing every year. Looking back, there were clearly so many opportunities to make money. This is also the result for most people. Like many stocks that have now multiplied dozens or even hundreds of times, but in between, they went through many rises and crashes. Don't overestimate human nature. Whenever I buy, I keep wanting to watch, frequently switching between long and short positions, making small profits but big losses each time. I'd rather be liquidated than cut losses. If I only went long or short, the results would be much better than now. For ordinary people, having more choices seems to increase the probability of making the wrong choice.BTC is consolidating, altcoins broadly rising, is this a style shift or just short-term sentiment?
Today $BTC fluctuated narrowly around 84000, but altcoins exploded across the board. $SUI rose over 13%, LINK broke through $14, and JUP, PUMP, FET all recorded significant gains. There are clear signs of capital rotating from BTC to high-volatility altcoins.
The underlying logic includes several points: SEC's innovative exemption framework opens a compliance channel for DeFi and RWA sectors; Solana ecosystem's Alpenglow upgrade is approaching; LINK secured institutional-level partnerships, strengthening its ecosystem narrative. Leading projects in each sector have independent catalysts supporting them.
It is important to note that most altcoins' RSI have entered overbought territory, so chasing highs in the short term carries considerable risk. The key is whether BTC can hold the current range and whether the SOL upgrade can drive sustained ecosystem strength.
$BTC $SUI $LINK $JUP #Altseason $COST This earnings report is classic Costco - makes you love it and fear it at the same time. Q4 Revenue came in at *$98.3B, +12.4% YoY*, membership fees up *8.9%*, net income up *∼17.2%*. The consumer is just not slowing down. Great for the US economy, but terrible logic for us - strong economy = Fed keeps rates higher for longer = $BTC and risk assets have to keep paying the price. But honestly I don't have time to worry about BTC right now. My *$WDC* grid is still the stress test. Updated: *I’m not rushing to take a third shot here. The higher it goes, the more important risk control becomes. Catching the move twice can be good timing, but repeatedly chasing the same momentum can easily turn into getting stuck at the top. For now, I’m watching the $1,500–$1,550 area closely. If ZEC can hold the breakout with strong volume, another leg higher could develop. But if momentum starts fading, I’d rather wait for a cleaner pullback than chase candles. Two wins can be skill + timing. The t$500 million credit landed, $SKY surges 7.3% on volume: pricing not finished
Wow, an hour ago a $500 million credit instrument entered the $SKY ecosystem — Grove as agent, GalaxyHQ structuring. Currently at 0.07479, up 7.334% in 24h, I'm bullish.
First, real money is coming in. 24h volume 3,537,473 USDT, volume ratio 1.531, intraday climbed from 0.0715 to 0.07547, buyers absorbed the news.
Second, the event pricing is not complete. Institutional channels are all in, event window SKY only dipped -0.07%, after event moved from 0.0752 to 0.07479, inverted 0.55% — the pullback is setting a position.
Third, the market is attacking. 89 up 7 down, median up/down 7.226%, BTC 84659 above ma7 at 84103, fear-greed 71, ammo is enough.
Resistance above: 0.07547 / 0.07625 / 0.07764
Support below: 0.0715, break targets 0.07, 0.06924
Conclusion: Hold above 0.07547 to test 0.07625, 0.07764; break below 0.0715 and the story falls apart, I exit.
0.07479 is a direct entry, stop loss 0.0715, first target 0.07764, take profit when reached. Follow for signals.
$SKY $BTCThe profits from two trades just cover the loss from the crude oil trade
$AAVE short from 147.3 to 145.1, +14.24%.
$EGLD long still floating with a 10.58% gain.
How absurd the profits are: combined, they only cover the cost of one lunch.
Even more absurd is the $CL crude oil short, pulled from 90.9 up to 93.12.
Floating loss of -24.42%, the profits from the two trades just fill this one gap.
Why the rise: the more chaotic the macro environment, the more money flows to the most liquid places.
$BTC's resilience is exactly for this reason; altcoins and crude oil have no takers.
Why I lost: insisted on shorting a macro-priced commodity.
Frequent trades earn hard money, but one losing trade wipes it all out.
Cut losses or hold on, I have no answer myself.
Even Wall Street dogs sometimes misread the market.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
#霍尔木兹重开现转机，油价风险溢价会降吗？ #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ $AAVE $EGLD $BTC C and $ETH are still trapped in a frustrating range, with buyers and sellers repeatedly cancelling each other out. After several sessions of low-conviction price action, the pressure is building. $ETH is hovering near $2,650, repeatedly testing the $2,700 area before getting pushed back toward $2,610–$2,620. I’m still keeping my short bias from around $2,690, but I’ve reduced exposure and won’t force another entry while the range remains intact. $BTC is moving inside roughly $82,500–$85,50The most interesting thing about $BTC right now is that it can't rise, but it also can't fall.
The price is repeatedly tugging around $84,400, with both bulls and bears clearly waiting for a real breakout signal.
On the upside, watch $85,000 first; if it breaks out with volume and holds, short-term sentiment may heat up further. On the downside, focus on $83,000; if it breaks below, be cautious of the consolidation range expanding downward.
No need to guess the direction now.
If $BTC breaks out, I follow the trend; if it retests key support, I wait for confirmation.
The quieter the market, the more patience is needed. Opened a short position on ETH at 2709, and added another when it rose to 2722. $ETH
Right after adding, it surged near 2738, and that familiar feeling came back:
babala every time I open a short, ETH has to come over first to check if I'm really scared www
But this time after the surge, it didn’t hold above, now back near 2700, both short positions have moved a bit in the right direction for now.
I didn’t add shorts because I think ETH has completely topped out.
The overall structure is still relatively strong; after breaking through 2660 earlier, bulls have had the advantage. This time mainly playing the 2720–2740 resistance zone’s surge and pullback, betting that after a quick rise, the market will first retrace a bit.
Next, 2700 is the first key level.
If it stays below 2700 continuously, I’ll look at 2670 first, then around 2640; if it holds above 2740 on the hourly and breaks through 2760, it means this pullback is just a shakeout, and shorts shouldn’t be stubbornly held.
Especially after the last short at 2525 was liquidated just under $20 away, I don’t want to keep testing how long ETH’s spikes can poke my account balance.
Adding to the position this time is okay, but it can’t turn into “every time it rises a bit, I add a bit more.”
Otherwise, in the end, it won’t be babala shorting ETH, but ETH shorting babala’s life wwwI started that $100 to $100k challenge feeling invincible. One month of non-stop grinding and I'm not up, I'm *down $47*. Account is at $53. And this past week alone deleted everything. Shorted *$ZEC at $248*, got squeezed to $315 and stopped. Shorted *$ETH at $2810*, it pumped straight to $2980. Thought I was smart shorting alts like *$TIA and $WIF*, got liquidated on both. At one point I had *16 shorts open at once*, all red. The market just kept pumping and pumping, and all I could do was cutThe morning headline was "Quarterly Options Expiry Day! Retail Traders' Life-or-Death Ordeal," mentioning that "the main players are very likely to use the expiry to create fake breakouts or fake breakdowns." The recent spike perfectly confirmed this prediction.
Let's review what just happened:
BTC quickly dipped from around 85,200, and ETH weakened simultaneously. This is not random fluctuation; it's the standard script for expiry day—large funds create intense volatility in spot and futures markets to maximize option settlement profits, sweeping up and clearing high-leverage positions. According to Coinglass data, about $335 million worth of liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, with long liquidations accounting for as much as 63%. Over 82,000 traders were liquidated, and the largest single liquidation happened on Binance's ETH contract, valued at $11.48 million.
My live trading status:
No additional margin was added, no panic selling. The grid strategy continues to operate according to system rules. This morning's floating loss was about 13 USDT; during the spike, the unpaired loss slightly increased but was far from triggering my BTC 82,500 stop-loss. The morning statement "If it doesn't break 83,000, the grid keeps running" still holds.
Why the prediction was accurate:
It's not mysticism. Today's options expiry nominal value is about $14 billion, with the maximum pain point concentrated near $79,000, which is significantly deviated from the market price. Market makers hedge their positions and conduct large-scale rebalancing before and after expiry. This "drawing the line" behavior has repeatedly appeared historically. Laying out the risk in advance is better than explaining it afterward.
$BTC $ETHIn the early hours of October 1st, Micron ($MU) released its earnings report.
This is not an ordinary quarterly report, but the "midterm exam" for the entire storage chip industry.
📌 Three key highlights:
1️⃣ How is the quality of HBM?
No matter how powerful NVIDIA's GPUs are, without HBM it's like "a gun without bullets." Will Micron's HBM3E yield, market share, and capacity meet expectations? This is the decisive factor for profit elasticity.
2️⃣ Has traditional storage successfully "de-internalized"?
Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have all cut DRAM capacity to support HBM. Is traditional storage facing a "structural shortage"? The ASP trend will reveal the truth.
3️⃣ Is edge AI a real demand or just storytelling?
AI PCs and AI smartphones have been hyped for two years, but has the memory capacity per device actually increased? Will consumers pay for it?
The market's expectations for Micron are already maxed out—revenue must exceed expectations, gross margin must climb, and guidance must be raised.
Any slight miss will be seen as "all good news priced in."
But if they can provide a clear roadmap for HBM4 plus signals of increased capital expenditure, storage stocks may usher in a new round of valuation reshaping.
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 A snapshot of my account right now - 3 completely different stories. *1. $ETH Short - Small win, but a win is a win.* I finally cut it. Entered short at *2742*, closed at *2705* this morning. *+82%, +24U*. Fourth short in a row on ETH, I didn't want to get greedy again. 100x isolated, not a life-changing amount, just enough for a nice dinner + some delivery for the week. But you know what they say, unrealized PnL is just numbers. What you lock in is yours. *2. $UNI Long - From diamond hands to pLooks like an account hack, but actually a white hat snatching NFTs?
Yuga Labs blockchain VP 0xQuit transferred about 3,832 NFTs from hundreds of wallets, claiming white hat rescue; boss Michael Figge confirmed the vulnerability was discovered just hours ago, assets temporarily stored at 0x71cF…fe33, to be returned after risk is resolved. On-chain traces mostly linked to Magic Eden's old Ethereum contract, transaction price recorded as 0 ETH; the platform closed ETH/BTC markets in March to focus on Solana, reports suggest leftover authorizations may have become a channel. Affected collections include BAYC, Azuki, MAYC, etc.; Magic Eden has not yet confirmed root cause or scope. (ForkLog+CoinGabbar/Phemex/Wu Shuo sources 9/25; white hat claim ≠ official audit conclusion, transfer ≠ permanent confiscation, USD value unconfirmed; OKX BTC about 84186/ETH about 2702) The above is compiled from public reports, not investment advice. $ETH Dividends changed from quarterly to daily, just mentioned by Saylor
Strategy plans to change the dividend schedule for four securities.
STRF, STRC, STRK, and STRD are all on the list.
The original rule states:
Accrue daily, including weekends and holidays.
Payment is made on the next business day.
Common misunderstanding:
This is not extra money; it's the same amount split into smaller parts.
Economic terms remain unchanged, total amount unchanged.
What changes is that you can see an entry every day.
The money doesn't increase, what changes is the frequency of its appearance.
With higher frequency, it's easier for those quoting prices to connect.
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 $STRC This is an indicator I particularly recommend monitoring over the next 24 hours.
The latest statistics recorded about 159 million USD in long positions and 104 million USD in short positions liquidated within 24 hours.
A more important signal is that the ETF is still attracting capital + Volume is maintained + OI is not increasing too hot + Funding is moderate + whales are not increasing coin deposits to the exchange. This data set helps distinguish a genuine money flow-driven rally from a rally mainly driven by leverage.Oracle's New Mexico AI data center signed a "hell or high water" lease: rent must be paid even without power.
Details uncovered on X by @wallstengine: local opposition to gas turbines, a 17-mile natural gas pipeline rejected twice, and air permits are still incomplete.
Oracle also issued a force majeure notice to the developer; the lease allows up to three years of deferred full rent payment.
Simply put: computing power orders can be signed instantly, but gigawatts of power and pipelines will take years.
My view: AI infrastructure narratives shouldn't just focus on order amounts; power and permits are the real bottlenecks. ORCL's roughly 3.3% drop today reflects this pricing.
I won't chase a rebound until stability is confirmed and there's news on power progress. Conditions to lift this: pipeline or power permits secured, and lease terms renegotiated.
Are you more worried about power supply constraints or a valuation sell-off across high-valued AI stocks?
$ORCL $META $NVDA
#US long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, increasing financing pressure #EarningsWatch: Costco beats expectations, Micron follows up$APR Last night, my hand trembled slightly when placing a short order, but this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety; the market is even more sensible than I thought.
One last look before sleep: APR is moving sideways at a high level without breaking down, but volume is shrinking, showing strong signs of a bull trap, with obvious resistance above. I judged that no one would catch the rise, so I advised opening a short position and to closely monitor the short.
From 0.2422 down to 0.1489, +771.26% big profit, timing nailed it. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly rewarding.
The market punishes all kinds of arrogance, especially those who think they are the smartest. The premise of compounding is survival; the shortcut to sudden wealth often leads to zero.
Take profit on 80% first, move the stop loss on the remaining 20% to the cost price to protect it. Don’t be greedy for the last bit; if it continues to drop, let the profits run, and if it rebounds, don’t let the gains become uncomfortable.
If you missed it, don’t chase. Now is not the time to rush; there will be more opportunities later. Wait for the next shot. I will notify immediately, patiently awaiting good news.
$BNB $ZEC #BTC pulled back after a rally, has market rotation begun?
Bitcoin hit $87,400 on September 21 before turning downward, briefly falling below $84,000 on the 23rd. Prices retreated, but funds did not withdraw—U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of about $2.01 billion over nearly five trading days, with $714.7 million absorbed on the 22nd alone. This indicates the pullback is not due to capital exiting but more like short-term profit-taking and position rotation.
More intriguingly, Glassnode data shows that in the past week, 72.5% of altcoins outperformed Bitcoin, yet the open interest in altcoin perpetual contracts did not surge correspondingly. In other words, this altcoin strength is driven by spot buying, not leveraged pushing. This structure is more solid than a leverage-driven bull run but requires further validation.
I won’t rush to define this as an "alt season." The seedlings of rotation have indeed appeared, but whether they grow into big trees depends on a key scenario: when BTC continues to pull back, can ETH, SOL, XRP, and ZEC hold steady without falling, or even attract capital against the trend? If Bitcoin declines while altcoins consolidate or strengthen, the logic of capital dispersion holds; conversely, if altcoins collectively plunge as Bitcoin falls, it’s just a normal retracement after a rally, not rotation.
The subtlety now is: the money hasn’t left, but the leading players might be changing. Watching relative strength during pullbacks is more meaningful than guessing tops or bottoms.
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ $XPL Let me explain why today's unlock not only didn't cause a crash but actually stopped the decline and started a rebound
1.67 billion unlocked ≠ 1.67 billion dumped. The key is: most of the unlocked coins did not flow into the market.
· Team/investors have a 3-year lock-up, founders claim no selling;
· U Card lock-up mechanism consumes XPL;
· Exchange balances dropped by 32%, chips were withdrawn and locked up;
· Shorts misjudged and were forced to cover by buying;
· There is massive buy support below the price, funding rates turned positive, bulls actively took over.
So it's not that there was no negative news, but selling pressure was pre-absorbed + locked up + short covering + buy support, so naturally no crash occurred, and instead the price stopped falling.$ZEC 1630, I am preparing to continue shorting.
Whale longs are reducing positions, while retail investors are actually adding more longs. Isn't this a typical smart money distribution, with retail taking over?
Whale longs have decreased from $465 million to $394 million in two days,
64 large whales have exited, and the average cost of those remaining is still going down.
Retail, on the other hand, has increased from 31% to 38%.
This is not stronger consensus; this is smart money distribution and retail taking over.
The reasons are simple:
1️⃣ Grayscale ZCSH claims $1 billion AUM, which includes stock conversions and about $100 million from related parties, so it's not new money sweeping in every day.
2️⃣ The price is stuck between $1610–$1680; this week's high broke $1680 but didn't hold, the short shelf is still there.
3️⃣ Unrealized profits are too large. Whales are still making money; they are reducing positions, not their belief—retail adding is the real belief.
4️⃣ Macro factors aren't helping: yields are high, BTC is hovering around $84k, privacy coins are volatile, rising fast and falling fast.
My suggestion going forward:
Short in batches around $1630, do not chase the rally.
First target $1550, second target $1470–$1450.
Set stop loss above $1680 daily close; if broken, admit the mistake and don't hold on.
Keep position small, avoid high leverage.
When retail is adding longs, short squeezes can be painful, so stop loss is necessary.
Wait until 1450 to discuss whether to flip to long. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ When I first started with crypto last year,
I was a complete newbie.
Seeing others show off their profit charts,
I felt an unbearable itch inside.
The first thing I bought was $BTC.
That night after buying, I kept staring at my phone,
happy when it went up a bit,
and cursing myself when it dropped a little.
Later I realized
this mindset just can’t hold on.
People in the group kept shouting about hundredfold coins every day,
I was tempted too,
but I didn’t invest much real money.
If I lost, I treated it as tuition fees,
and if I earned, I didn’t dare to add more.
Honestly,
for ordinary people playing this,
the biggest fear isn’t the drop,
it’s getting carried away.
Once you get carried away, you want to borrow money to rush in,
that’s the real danger.
Now I prefer to take it slow,
take some spare money every month,
buy a little $ETH,
not watching the short-term red or green,
nor listening to those overnight riches stories.
Sometimes I also check $SOL,
think it’s fast,
and the fees are low,
but I still keep the position very small.
In the end,
this thing can be played with,
but you can’t put your life on the line.
Being able to sleep well is more important than anything.
If you really want to ask what I learned,
it’s don’t be greedy,
don’t be impatient,
don’t borrow money,
don’t mistake luck for skill.
Leave the rest to time.
Making money is luck,
not losing too much is already skill.#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 A couple of days ago, a fan asked Jenny how to trade inscriptions,
I quietly recommended OKX Wallet to him.
Just now, I specifically opened OKX Wallet to take a closer look,
inscription trading is indeed hidden, but it’s still available on the web version.
I glanced at $ORDI; its current market cap is now less than $100 million, down 95% from its peak,
I remember people used to say inscriptions sparked the bull market on OKX,
now it’s all come and gone.If it wants to continue rising, the difficulty will naturally increase.
What I'm more focused on now is one thing: whether the 10-year US Treasury yield can fall back below 5%.
If it can't hold below that, risk assets shouldn't get too overexcited.This time, I think we can't just focus on "whether the Fed will raise interest rates" anymore; the real trouble is that long-term interest rates are rising on their own.
As of September 24, the 10-year US Treasury yield once touched around 5.12% intraday, and the 30-year yield even surged to about 5.44%, hitting a multi-year high.
What does this mean?
Simply put: borrowing money long-term in the US is becoming increasingly expensive.
The Treasury has to pay higher interest on bonds, corporate financing costs also rise, and mortgages, consumer loans, and overvalued assets will all be affected. More importantly, US economic data in September remains relatively strong, while oil prices have climbed back above $100, so inflationary pressure is not so easy to disappear, and market expectations for continued tightening are heating up.
Therefore, what the market is truly worried about now is not a single rate hike itself, but the simultaneous occurrence of **"high interest rates + fiscal financing demand + energy inflation"**.
The same applies to Bitcoin. Previously, when rate cut expectations emerged, risk assets tended to rally; but if long-term US Treasury yields continue to rise, dollar liquidity will be drained.Reviewing this round of BTC market, the pattern is clear and traceable.
After dipping to the low of 57750 this year, the market experienced more than two months of sideways consolidation, repeatedly oscillating and bottoming out in the 63000–70000 range. As the saying goes, "Though the process is arduous, after sifting through the sand, gold is found"; the prolonged consolidation is all about accumulation.
Then followed three rounds of volume-driven advances, step by step lifting the price: the first round pulled from 63000 to 81200, the second round retraced to 75000 before reaching a high of 82100, and the recent third round broke through the 80000 mark, reaching a peak of 87300.
The 57750 level has been validated multiple times this year as an important bottom support, but it is still too early to declare a bull market return.
The current key anchor point is the 80000 level, which has shifted from a previous resistance zone to a dividing line between strength and weakness. As always, futile to resist the momentum, on this day the current flows freely; this position and momentum shift is a critical signal of the market phase.
Going forward, there is no need to guess the top; the focus is on whether 80000 can hold steady and whether any pullback can be defended. If it holds, the upward structure continues; if it fails, the validity of the breakout must be reassessed. $BTC #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has hit a 30-year high, and global safe-haven funds are repricing risk assets. As a highly volatile instrument, CL is the first to be affected. I believe the short-term rebound is unlikely to change the medium-term pressure pattern. The 4-hour chart is still in a downtrend channel, having retraced 8.97% from the high. Although the 1-hour chart shows a slight upward bend, it has only recovered to 3.98% from the low, so the trend has not reversed; the funding rate of -0.0013% indicates that shorts are willing to pay to hold positions. There are 437,000 coin-margined positions with a turnover of 15.45 million, so selling pressure has not truly eased. The top 10 buy orders total 90,000 versus 80,000 sell orders, a ratio of 1.12, which is only a weak balance. 96.72 is a hard resistance, and if 92.13 is broken, it will open the downside space. Strategically, lightly short at a rebound to 93.85, with a stop loss at 95.47 and a target of 90.65; if volume breaks below 92.13, short again with a stop loss at 92.89 and a target of 89.35. Single position size should not exceed 2% of total funds; stop trading for the day after two consecutive losses. Discipline takes priority over judgment.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$CL#日本10年期国债收益率创30年新高
#日本10年期国债收益率创30年新高 $CL Interest rates have risen, but the coin hasn't crashed yet
It's not that it suddenly got stronger; the bad news was already priced in by the market
Spot ETFs and slow institutional money are absorbing the sell-off, and the fragile leverage has already been cleared in a previous round, so a single rate hike isn't that scary
These days, I'm focusing on three things:
Whether ETFs are still attracting money
Whether stablecoin supply is increasing
Whether the 10-year US Treasury can hold around 5
A single rate hike won't kill it
If rate hikes continue, the dollar strengthens further, and liquidity is tightened more, then it will really be tough
For now, treat the direction as range-bound oscillation
Don't interpret resilience as a confirmed full bull market yet. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
Shift in Pricing Logic: Why Is Bitcoin "Slow to React" to Hawkish Signals?
After the Federal Reserve's rate hike in September, market expectations for further tightening have continued to rise, with the probability of a rate hike in October once exceeding 70%. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker clearly stated that if the economic trend meets expectations, "it may be necessary to further moderately tighten monetary policy." However, Bitcoin has not weakened continuously due to the expectation of rising interest rates; instead, it once broke through $87,000 this week.
Under the traditional framework, interest-free assets are naturally sensitive to rising interest rates—the opportunity cost increase suppresses valuation. But this rule holds on the premise that market participants are mainly retail investors, whose behavior tends to passively react to implemented policy changes. The current market structure has undergone substantial changes.
On September 21, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of about $999 million, hitting a new high for 2026. During the same period, Strategy increased its holdings by 950 bitcoins at an average price of about $79,670, raising its position to 846,000 bitcoins. In an environment of rising interest rates, the choices of these funds are worth examining.
The current change in Bitcoin's interest rate sensitivity is essentially the result of a shift in pricing power. When marginal price setters change from retail investors who react to policy changes to institutions that anticipate the interest rate path, the traditional transmission chain between interest rates and prices is lengthened and distorted $BTC $ETH $ZEC AMD's market cap surpassing one trillion drives chip stocks sharply higher, with risk appetite spilling over into the crypto sector. KAITO, as a popular target, benefits, but I judge this round of sentiment-driven movement outweighs fundamentals, so chasing highs requires restraint. The four-hour chart remains in an uptrend structure, 25.58% above the low, but the one-hour chart has turned downward, retreating 4.79% from the high. Current price is 0.3515, up 6% in 24h, with the high at 0.3567 forming near-term resistance and 0.3315 as yesterday's low support. Trading volume is 23.409 million, order book top ten buy-sell ratio is 2.53, clearly favoring buyers; funding rate is only 0.005%, open interest at 12.012 million coin-margined contracts, longs are not overheated, sentiment is cautious. Buy in batches on pullback to 0.3385, stop loss at 0.3245, target 0.3565; if volume breaks through 0.3567, light position chasing is possible with stop loss at 0.3445. Single position should not exceed 5% of total capital; exit unconditionally if stop loss is hit.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$KAITO#AMD市值突破1万亿美元，芯片股集体大涨
#AMD市值突破1万亿美元，芯片股集体大涨 $KAITO #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？# In this round of risk-off narrative, the correlation between SOL and gold is actually weak; it behaves more like a high-beta risk asset. My judgment is that after a short-term surge, the momentum is waning. A 6.9% increase in 24h pushed the price to 121.07, but the hourly level has already turned downward, with 7.07% room from the low point. The four-hour level is still upward, 25.06% from the low, showing clear divergence across timeframes. The order book's top 10 bid-ask ratio is 0.99, with sellers slightly dominant. The funding rate is only 0.01%, indicating bulls are not overheated, and the open interest of 2.943 million coin-based contracts shows no panic exit. Volume and price show a turnover of 11.714 million accompanying the surge, but 122.2 above is a strong resistance, and 113.04 below is short-term support. It is recommended to lightly short at a rebound to 121.85, stop loss at 123.45, target 116.35; if it pulls back and stabilizes at 113.6, consider going long, stop loss 111.9, target 119.8. Single position should not exceed 5%, exit immediately if broken, do not hold losing positions.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading.——
$SOL#US long-term Treasury yields continue to rise, financing pressure heats up
#高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ $SOL $LSK
LSK crashed the hardest today, down 11.78% in 24 hours, from 0.4862 all the way down to 0.3413.
But the most striking thing is not the drop, but the fee rate—-0.1239%, negative! This means the shorts are paying the longs. Such an extreme negative fee rate often indicates a crowded short position, pushing hard.
Open interest also dropped by 7.9%, longs are cutting losses and exiting, looks pretty grim.
My view: Don’t rush to bottom-fish, catching a falling knife is a life-risking gamble; but shorts shouldn’t be too pleased either, with such a deep negative fee rate, once a rebound happens shorts will have to collectively cover, and that scene will be intense.
This asset is a minefield right now, watch more, act less.
$LSK On September 24th Eastern Time, the total net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs reached $191 million, maintaining net inflows for six consecutive trading days. The largest single-day inflow was from BlackRock IBIT, reaching $163 million.
I believe the truly important factor now is not the $191 million figure itself, but whether BTC can convert the continuous institutional capital inflows into a price breakout.
This transmission can be viewed in three layers:
First layer: Continuous ETF inflows indicate that institutional buying has not significantly withdrawn.
Second layer: BTC holding key support shows that spot buying can absorb market selling pressure.
Third layer: BTC breaking through resistance with volume confirms that ETF funds are genuinely starting to drive the trend.
In the short term, I will focus directly on key levels:
80,000: Hold if it holds, reduce positions if it breaks down.
81,500 to 82,500: Add positions only on a volume breakout.
84,000 to 85,000: Take profits in batches.
79,000: If lost, continue to defend, looking down to 77,800 to 78,500.
My personal judgment is that continuous net inflows over six days are more meaningful than a single-day $191 million inflow, but now it is still not advisable to chase highs solely because of ETF inflows. The truly strong combination should be: continuous ETF net inflows + BTC holding 80,000 + volume breakout above 82,500.
Conversely, if ETF inflows quickly shrink or even turn negative, and BTC falls below 80,000, one should be cautious of institutional buying cooling off.
$BTC #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Evening position ramblings
The market continued to diverge in the evening session, with one side in heaven and the other in hell.
$BTC BTC100x longs and $ETH ETH20x longs continue to reap dividends, with large long positions still profiting and running higher. The dividends given by the market must be held onto.
However, the shorts on $DOGE DOGE and ONE are truly suffering, with margin ratios already squeezed very low. The rebound spikes of small coins are really terrifying in their killing power; enduring positions against the trend is very wearing.
High leverage is like this: explosive returns when winning, but instant pressure when losing. Don’t get carried away when winning, don’t stubbornly hold when losing, always keep a close eye on liquidation risk. Market opportunities are always there, but risk control always comes first.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Check macro and beta before the weekend — US Treasuries haven't eased much, but $ETH has already pulled ahead of BTC today.
In Asia, the 10-year yield is still around 5.17% (it peaked at 5.2% a couple of days ago), and FedWatch still shows about a 70% chance of a rate hike in October. On Friday, roughly $14 billion worth of BTC options plus about $2 billion in ETH options on Deribit expired, and the market has actually calmed down a bit before the weekend.
OKX spot $ETH is around 2721, 24h range 2639–2743, up nearly 3%; nearby $BTC is about 84690, up roughly 1.5%. The contract funding rate is slightly positive at about 0.005%, with open interest around $1.67 billion. High interest rates are suppressing risk appetite, yet ETH is moving more boldly than BTC, so don't treat beta as stable over the weekend.
Short-term focus: 2700 / 2680 vs. 2740 for $ETH; $BTC looks at 84500 / 84000.
$ETH $BTC #ETH #Ethereum #Macro #USTreasuryYield #FedWatch #OptionsExpiry #WeekendRisk #RiskWarning
The above is personal observation only and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; please make decisions cautiously. $BTC
So far, so good.
We pushed up a bit, beyond my initial expectations, but overall we got the reaction I anticipated.
If you took this short, you should now be sitting on a nice profit and can reduce risk by moving your stop loss to the entry point.
My target remains to retest the range high, which I believe we will see soon.
Whether I take the exact long shown in this post or wait for a lower entry point mainly depends on the upcoming weekly close.
If the weekly candle closes back inside the previous range, I will wait for an entry point near the $73K–$76K area, which I have marked in previous posts.
If, on the other hand, we retest the range high and continue to hold above it, I will seize the opportunity to go long, with the first target being the recent high around $87K, followed by the major swing high around $97K.