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#财报观察员：Costco's earnings beat expectations, Micron takes the stage
Costco's earnings beat expectations, and Micron steps up. 🍎
Don't think this has nothing to do with the crypto world; these two earnings reports are like a "thermometer" for American consumers and a "detector" for AI computing infrastructure. Their results directly affect the Fed's rate hike expectations and risk appetite for capital.
Costco beating expectations means US consumption is still holding up, and the economic fundamentals haven't collapsed. This gives the Fed more confidence to continue raising rates, pushing back rate cut expectations. This is not good news for risk assets.
The real show is about to begin with Micron.
Micron is a key player in HBM and storage chips, and its earnings directly reflect the true health of AI computing infrastructure. If Micron's performance explodes and guidance beats expectations, it means the AI narrative is still strong, and tech stock sentiment can keep heating up. But if Micron disappoints, it means the market's hype about "unlimited AI demand" might be questionable, which would drag down the valuations of the entire tech sector.
The transmission chain for us is clear: Micron beats expectations → AI sentiment warms up → Nasdaq holds → risk assets get a brief breather. Micron bombs → tech stocks come under pressure → the broader market suffers.
As for trading, the advice remains the same: don't bet on earnings. Hold your spot positions firmly, and contract traders should keep their hands off. These overlapping events create extremely sharp spikes. Keep your USDT ready and wait for the data to settle and sentiment to stabilize before making moves.
Costco just finished reporting; can Micron take over? What do you think? 👇$MU I held my $ETH long for an entire week, only to give back nearly half of the profit when I finally closed it. And then I flipped into a $BTC short… probably a little too quickly. 😅 So why am I shorting BTC here? If BTC breaks down and fails to reclaim the level, I’m viewing the move as a potential Wave Theory second-wave correction. On the weekly structure, this could potentially mark the beginning of a broader correction from the move that started around August 19. The bigger reason behind my In this hawkish market environment, someone has quietly built a strong short portfolio—and all three positions are currently in profit. ZEC is the most conservative setup: a 1x isolated short with an average entry of 1,604 and a current price around 1,542, showing roughly 5,611U in unrealized profit. With such low leverage, liquidation risk is minimal. The strategy is clearly focused on the longer-term trend: weakening high-level positions and a retreat in leveraged capital. UNI is the most aggr0.10217, $DOGE is stuck right here.
Short-term traders get itchy at this kind of level, and I couldn't resist either.
Current position: grinding at a low on the 4-hour chart for a long time, 0.09507 is support, 0.10217 is resistance, with just this little space in between.
What I did: I chased once just below resistance, hoping volume would push through, but volume didn't come, and the price shrank back into the consolidation zone.
The lesson here: MEME sentiment comes fast and goes even faster. Without a volume breakout, chasing in just means paying tuition for the consolidation.
To be clear, this position isn't untradeable, just not worth heavy exposure.
I'm betting on a fake breakout first, then a retest of 0.09507. The day it holds above resistance is when I'll consider entering.
Holding a minimal position, I can afford to wait.
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $DOGE $MEME When you see a pool on STONfi with an annual yield of hundreds or thousands of percent it is crucial to understand a fundamental thing. This money is not generated by traders and does not come out of thin air. In the absolute majority of cases this is incentivized yield. New projects in the ecosystem critically need liquidity so that investors can execute trades without wild slippage. Since startups do not have millions of dollars in stablecoins to pay market makers they use the printing press oUnlocked 1.8 billion tokens, yet it still rose 20%, who dares to chase?
$XPL unlocked 1.8 billion tokens today, mainly the one-year cliff unlock for the team and investors,
which is roughly equivalent to over 60% of the previous circulating supply.
However, it rose about 20%–35% in 24 hours, about +30% over 7 days, with significantly increased trading volume.
Currently, the price has reached near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating short-term overheating and high volatility.
I believe this is a pre-unlock emotional rush + FOMO; the fundamentals have not changed much.
The Plasma story itself is indeed good:
A stablecoin payment L1, focusing on USDT transfers, low-cost payments, and the Plasma One card product.
But the problem is the huge selling pressure from the unlock,
so I am bearish in the short term, waiting for the selling pressure to clear before reconsidering.
At the current price level, I do not recommend chasing longs;
around 0.12, it might be worth trying to open shorts.
If volume increases and it falls below 0.10 later, I will continue to target 0.095 or even 0.085–0.09.
If within 3–7 days after the unlock, XPL withstands the selling pressure and climbs back above 0.105, that would indicate the market has absorbed this batch of tokens.
Today's rise is emotional, and dilution also landed today.
Realize profits in the short term, wait for the selling pressure to clear before discussing the next wave;
XPL is currently a high-elasticity, high-dilution, high-emotion asset,
let the tokens settle first, then talk about the next wave. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ Next, let's do a comparison. The 24-hour range for $FIL is 0.9478 to 1.0217, with the current price position at 92.7%; the 7-day range low is 0.9081 and the high is 1.0414. Overlaying these two ranges, $FIL is now standing at the common upper edge of both ranges — within the 0.9081 to 1.0414 segment, 1.0164 has already consumed 88%. Let's line up the moving average data. The 15-minute MA20 is 1.0044, MA50 is 0.9943, with the price above both lines, which have already separated, indicating a clear short-term direction; the 1-hour MA20 is 0.9968, with the price 1.95% higher; the 2-hour MA20 is 0.9778, with the price 3.95% higher; the daily MA20 is 0.8932, with the price 13.78% higher. The deviations for the four periods are 1.2%, 1.95%, 3.95%, and 13.78% respectively — expanding very regularly, indicating this is a top-down trend push, not a single-period spike. The volume comparison is even more worth noting. $FIL's 24-hour trading volume is 70.83 million U, the smallest among the five coins — BTC is 6.68 billion, ETH is 6.64 billion, SOL is 1.19 billion, AAVE is 54.14 million. $FIL's market cap is only one-thousandth of BTC's. The small-cap +6.35% versus the large-cap +1.53%,I bought $PENDLE at this position
Bullish reasons:
1. Continuously capturing new narratives: from LSD to RWA and tokenized stocks
Pendle's core capability is "turning any yield-bearing asset into a tradable interest rate market." This round, it has precisely positioned itself in RWA (Real World Assets) and tokenized stocks:
· Cooperated with asset tokenization platform Asseto to put the yields of traditional financial products such as Huaxia Fund's money market funds and private equity infrastructure strategies on-chain and split them into PT/YT for user trading.
· On Robinhood Chain, users can trade dividend yields of tokenized stocks of companies like Nvidia.
· The protocol has also launched stock-related markets such as NVDA, PFE.
2. Institutional access and ecosystem expansion: opening channels for incremental capital
· Institutional pilot: Pendle launched the Permissioned Markets Pilot to provide compliant institutions access to the yield trading ecosystem, expected to go live within two months.
· Robinhood Chain expansion: Pendle has expanded to Robinhood Chain, with a 47% increase in trading volume within 24 hours.
· X Layer TVL: On OKX's X Layer, Pendle's TVL has exceeded $40 million, making it the second largest protocol by TVL on that chain.Let's take a look at the components of this "season." $SOL's 24-hour range is 113.01 to 119.00, with the current price at 99.0% of that range — not "close to the upper edge," but "standing right against the ceiling." Buying at this position usually gives you a two-minute illusion, then hands you a long bearish candle. Now look at the two-hour chart. $SOL's 2H MA20 is 115.93, with the price 2.03% above it; this number looks okay. But the problem lies in the daily chart: $SOL's daily MA20 is 106.73, and the current price is 10.83% above it. What does 10.83% mean? It means the price is too far from the moving average, so any normal pullback will drop 8% to 11%. Those chasing highs need to think carefully about whether they can withstand this hit. Some might say, "The fee rate is only 0.0100%, not overheated." Yes, $SOL's fee rate is indeed only 0.0100%, with 2,987,432 contracts open. But a low fee rate doesn't mean safety; it only indicates that no one has maxed out leverage yet — when the fee rate spikes, it's usually the last leg of the run. The 15-minute momentum isn't bad: $SOL's last six candlesticks include 4 bullish and 2 bearish, so short-term buying is still there. Unfortunately, the space above doesn't allow optimism — at 99.0% of the 24-hour range, the resistance above is 119.00 (near the last eight 15-minute highs), and the 7-day high of 119.96 is right overhead, those two numbers.At 4 PM, this batch of Deribit quarterly options expired:
About $15.9 billion in BTC, about $2.1 billion in ETH.
Three hours later, BTC is still around 84.7K, close to the intraday high.
Many previously focused on the 75K max pain as a “magnet.” At least this time, it didn’t happen.
When you see headlines like “$18 billion options expired,” don’t automatically translate that as $18 billion in buy or sell orders. Notional principal and actual spot capital flow are completely different things.
$BTC Revoking authorization is not canceling an order; it is cutting off the other party's permission to access your wallet.
From February to October 2024, people who listed NFTs on Magic Eden need to take action.
The original rule states:
Authorization means you allow that contract to transfer your NFT.
Revoking authorization means withdrawing that permission.
At the moment it is triggered:
The vulnerability lies in Limit Break's Payment Processor V2.
Magic Eden used it to settle EVM transactions at the time and stopped using it in October.
Current listings are unaffected, but historical authorizations remain.
Revoking authorization cannot recover assets that have already been transferred.
For assets not yet transferred, revoking is the only safe option.
If authorization is not revoked, the contract will keep holding that key.
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易 $ETH Clues to the answer first. $ETH current price is 2,703, 24-hour range is 2,638 to 2,718, current price is at 91.3% position. This is not "just started rising," this is "already finished rising, standing at a high level." Back to the initial question. $ETH daily range is 1,547 to 2,807, current price position 92.4%; daily MA20 is at 2,556, price is 5.74% above it. That means $ETH has risen 71.6% from the bottom in this round, while the 24-hour increase is only 2.28%. The slow rise is because it has already risen a long time ago. Now the real question: who is selling near 2,738? Evidence one, 15-minute momentum. In the last six 15-minute K-lines of $ETH, only 2 are bullish, 4 are bearish. During the price making new highs, fewer bullish candles is typical stagnation. Evidence two, two-hour level. $ETH 2H MA20 is 2,679, price is 0.88% above it; but 2H MA50 is 2,714, pressing down on the price. Short-term moving average is below the long-term moving average, mid-term is a correction, not a trend. Evidence three, and the most counterintuitive: $ETH's funding rate is only 0.0073%, as bland as plain water. If it were a capital-driven breakout, the funding rate wouldn't be so quiet. Open interest is 619,672 contracts, no volume explosion either. Key points clarified First, let's clarify the coordinates for this round. $BTC 24-hour range is from 83,296 to 84,931, with the current price standing at the upper 90% position; 7-day change +8.19%, 30-day change +7.52%, still 32.82% below the all-time high of 126,080. This is not a position of a fresh start, but one that has already risen for a while and needs consolidation. On the daily chart, $BTC's structure is undisputed. The 20-day moving average is at 80,066, with the current price 5.87% above it; the 50-day moving average is at 75,347, even lower. The daily range is from 57,750 to 87,374, with the current price at 91.2%. The bullish alignment is intact, and there is no sign of the mid-term trend being broken. The problem lies in the shorter timeframes. The 2-hour MA20 for $BTC is 84,188, with the price just 0.41% above it—almost touching. The 2-hour MA50 is at 85,146, still above the price, meaning that on the 2-hour level, the short moving average is below the long moving average, indicating a corrective pattern after a decline, not a new uptrend. Looking at the 15-minute chart, $BTC is above both MA20 (84,275) and MA50 (84,315), with the two lines almost merged. In the last six 15-minute candlesticks, there are 3 bullish and 3 bearish candles, a typical tug-of-war. Volume has not shown signs of expansion, with recent volumes fluctuating between 40,000 and 100,000 U, and none able to reach 18 Today is September 25th, with nearly $16 billion worth of BTC options expiring, marking a significant quarterly settlement. According to Deribit data, about 182,000 BTC options are expiring this time, including approximately 106,200 call options and 75,900 put options, with the maximum pain point near $76,000. Currently, BTC is still fluctuating around $84,000, which is noticeably distant from the maximum pain point. This means that what truly deserves attention today is not just "whether it will drop," but whether the market can maintain its current strength after option expirations and the unwinding of hedging positions. Recently, BTC surged above $86,000 before retreating to around $83,000, but ETF inflows have still provided some price support. Meanwhile, with rising U.S. Treasury yields and ongoing market discussions about further rate hike risks, the macro environment remains challenging. What's more interesting is that the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, pushing the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%, yet BTC did not experience a sustained crash; instead, it once broke through $86,000. So what the market is trading on now may no longer be the simple "rate cut = rise, rate hike = fall" equation. Capital is reassessing whether BTC can continue to rely on ETF inflows, institutional allocations, and safe-haven demand to maintain resilience in a high-interest-rate environment. 📌 Short-term focus on several areas: BTC between $83,500 and $85,000 is currently the battleground for bulls and bears.Many people look at FIL only by its coin price;
What is truly worth studying is the "identity shift" it is undergoing.
In the past, FIL was labeled by the market as "decentralized storage";
What deserves more attention now is that data, AI, payments, and on-chain services are gradually converging on the same infrastructure.
In the AI era, what is truly scarce is not just computing power, but also the storage, invocation, verification, and long-term preservation of massive amounts of data.
So I am increasingly focused on one question:
If the scale of on-chain data continues to grow in the future, with enterprise data, AI data, and RWA data constantly being put on-chain, who will take on this data?
The imagination space for FIL may not lie in the three words "storage coin," but in whether it can become one of the data infrastructures of the digital world.
In the short term, the price will of course be influenced by BTC, liquidity, and market sentiment, but in the medium to long term, what truly determines valuation is actual demand.
FIL does not need everyone to understand it now.
It only needs the things it is doing to truly become important in the future.
This is also the core reason why I continue to follow FIL.#EarningsObserver: Costco's performance exceeds expectations, Micron takes over, where is the next breakout point hidden?
Costco Q4 earnings released: revenue of $95.7 billion beats expectations, EPS $6.75 up 15% year-over-year, e-commerce sales surge 19.5%. But what really held the market's breath was the special dividend — the company paid $10 and $15 per share in 2020 and 2024 respectively, cash reserves continue to accumulate, with some investors betting the next special dividend may be announced within the year.
The retail stock story pauses, Micron takes over. On September 30, Micron announced Q4 earnings, guiding revenue between $49 billion and $51 billion, EPS $30-$32. UBS analysts are more optimistic, expecting actual revenue of $52.4 billion, EPS $32.50, target price $1,625. The core logic: AI server demand drives persistent supply shortages of DRAM/NAND, Citibank expects DRAM average prices to rise 20% quarter-over-quarter this quarter, and another 13% next quarter.
But disagreements are growing. Big short seller Michael Burry has increased his short position on Micron, citing that Chinese production capacity may ease supply constraints; Wells Fargo also lowered its target price from $1,525 to $1,400. Micron's year-to-date gain has reached 256%, marking a key battle betting on continued strength in contract prices.
Costco relies on resilience, Micron on elasticity. September 30 will reveal the outcome. #EarningsObserver #COST #MU Not investment advice.
$BTC By encapsulating investment strategies into transferable, automatically rebalancing on-chain tokens, portfolios are expected to become more modular and further integrated with DeFi infrastructure. 📌 What deserves more attention is whether such products can truly move from "on-chain packaging" to sustained usage. If compliant investors recognize their transparency, flexibility, and automated management capabilities, RWA could evolve from mere asset tokenization to on-chain portfolios and allocation strategies. As institutions continue to explore tokenized funds and on-chain financial infrastructure, market focus is shifting from "which assets can be on-chain" to "which financial decisions can be executed on-chain." #Ondo #RWA #DeFi #Tokenization #BlackRock #OndoBlackRockStrategy🚨There is an increasingly obvious problem in the global stock markets now: it looks like people are buying different indices, different countries, different funds, but when you dig into the holdings, a lot of money ends up betting on the same story—AI.
On September 25, Ipek Ozkaderskaya, a senior analyst at Credit Suisse, warned that broad-based indices and retirement funds are now deeply tied to the AI wave. Tech stocks account for about 40% of the S&P 500; in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, just three chip companies—TSMC, Samsung, and SK Hynix—already make up over 25% of the weight. In other words, it looks like buying a "basket of assets," but the heaviest eggs in the basket are all related to the AI industry chain.
So she used a very vivid expression: AI has become the "core pillar" of the current market, and this pillar cannot have any cracks.
In plain terms, AI is no longer just the story of Nvidia and chip stocks themselves; it has already shouldered the entire market. 😂
AI companies frantically buy GPUs → chip companies make money → data centers are built like crazy → power demand surges → cloud computing companies continue to expand capital expenditures → corporate profits grow → tech stocks rise → indices rise → ETFs, pensions, and passive funds keep buying.Never rush to enter the market early. Rushing in means actively taking on the risk of mid-move volatility, which usually results in losses. Only by letting the market drop further and fully play out the downward phase can your position withstand the volatility and hold onto significant profits.
If the theoretical expected return is only 20~30 points, once the market fluctuates repeatedly, it’s easy to get stopped out by volatility and unable to hold the position.
Completely cancel pre-market trading at 4 AM.
Pre-market moves are generally small in scale, with most fluctuations only two or three points, lacking trading value. Such markets rarely produce big moves of 50~100 points or even 200 points. Looking back at historical trades, most pre-market trades only earn about 12 points, and after fees, the profit is minimal. Even if the selling point is good, any unexpected market move can cause a direct big loss.
Only extreme sharp drops like those during non-farm payrolls create large space, which is a very low-probability exception and should not be treated as a regular opportunity. In non-extreme conditions, chasing highs or bottoms pre-market is very risky.
The essence is still too low opportunity and insufficient scale. Frequent trading in such small ranges continuously drains your mindset, energy, and capital. When a truly large-scale market move arrives, you won’t dare to take heavy positions and won’t have enough confidence to seize the opportunity. Frequent pre-market small trades will only trap you in the end.
Pre-market trading also fosters the bad habit of rushing to act at market open, disrupting your trading mindset. Completely canceling all 4 AM pre-market trading is the best choice; only consider entering after the official open when the market shows moves of sufficient scale and range.Today's biggest buyer of $ETH might not be you. Bitget was hacked for $350 million, and the stolen funds were converted into 67,982 ETH (about $183 million).
Current price is 2,690, slightly up 0.1%, still 43% below the 4,700 peak. This hacker's massive purchase became the strongest ETH buy order of the day; on-chain ETH/BTC ratio remains at a yearly low, and there is still no sign of foundation accumulation.
The hacker converting to ETH is a money laundering demand, not genuine adoption. The money went into the pool but not into the ecosystem. Secondary effect: this kind of buying is unsustainable; once dumped back to Binance, it will backfire. Narrative is 40%, the confidence behind today's ETH rise surprisingly comes from a batch of stolen funds.
Risk is bearish, support at 2,520, target 2,720, reduce positions if it breaks 2,480, keep position at 15%. Don't mistake the hacker's laundering for positive news; until ETH/BTC recovers, it remains infrastructure being drained by BTC. Without real demand, the floor is unstable. $AVGO
Broadcom's advantage lies in simultaneously standing at both ends of custom AI chips and network connectivity.
When large cloud customers expand clusters, they need not only computing chips but also high-speed switching, interconnection, and customized solutions. If orders spread from a single customer, the revenue quality will be more stable.
It is necessary to monitor AI revenue growth, the recovery of non-AI business, and post-acquisition cash flow. If customer concentration rises or the capital expenditure cycle weakens, the high valuation will quickly expose risks.$BTC $ETH are standing at a crucial position in the capital rotation chain. The price around $2.69K indicates that ETH has recovered, but the $2.7K zone remains a notable test. If $BTC continues to stabilize above $84K and $ETH breaks through $2.7K with good volume, capital flow may start shifting from leading assets to the mid-beta group. In that case, $SOL will be the area to watch because its reaction speed is usually higher. Conversely, if ETH keeps getting rejected, the market may still be in a BTC-led state rather than altcoin-led 🔷 CryptoQuant: the fifth bull signal in BTC history
• Darkfost: short-term basis above active long-term basis
• Fifth case in BTC history
• July 11 warned about the end of the bear — now confirmed
• Filter: "active" = moved within 7 years
• Sleeping coins 10+ years: 3.5+ million BTC (+8-30k/month)
🧠 Short blood buys above veterans — the cycle is turning. The main driver is the ETF flow. But sleeping coins are a burden
⚠️ Rare signal ≠ guarantee; 2019 was also on the list
❓ Will the ETF confirm the signal?👇 $BTC
#BTC is currently in a range with large orders both above and below.
$84,700–$85,200 and $87,200–$88,000 are two short-term liquidity magnet zones; the price may first sweep one of these today.
On a larger scale, there is $5.2 billion stacked below between $80,000–$85,000, while only $2 billion is above between $87,000–$90,000, so the downside risk is heavier.
However, the $84,300 support has not been broken yet, indicating that bulls and bears have not decided the outcome.
The operation is simple: hold above $84,700, bias bullish, target $87K+; break below $84,700, bias bearish, target $82K–$83K; break above $88K, target $89K–$90K.
Do not take sides prematurely; wait for the price to move first. Recently, some people say "liquidity has returned to the crypto market," while others say "with US Treasury yields so high, where is the liquidity coming from?" I think we should stop arguing and just look at the data. Let's first look at the most concrete set: the US spot $BTC ETF. As of September 23, the net inflow in September has accumulated to about $2.4 billion, with 9 days of net inflows and 7 days of net outflows over 16 trading days. Even more striking, on September 21, there was a single-day net inflow of $999 million; on September 22, another $715 million came in, and on September 23, there was still $347 million. This is not just talk about a bull market; this is real capital flow. But why am I not directly excited? Because the data on the other side is also very eye-catching. On September 23, the US 10-year Treasury yield had already reached 5.11%, while on September 2 it was still 4.79%. In less than a month, long-term rates have clearly moved up. So this market is quite interesting now: ETF funds are flowing in, but long-term yields are hitting highs. This shows that it is not simply a case of "global easing, all risk assets rising together." My understanding is actually that funds are still there, but they have become more selective. $BTC can attract institutional funds, but that doesn't mean all altcoins can tap into this liquidity. This is also why recently when I look at the market, I consider ETF inflows, 10-year US Treasury yields, and stablecoin regulation together. Especially stablecoins. On September 24, the Federal Reserve announced the GENIUS Act-related stablecoin regulatory proposal, requiring regulated payment stablecoins This is the power of the trend! The current account is even more festive than the lanterns during the New Year! This exhilarating feeling can only be experienced by those who truly hold their positions.
🔥 $BTC, as the leader, has a floating profit of +3890U (+202%), this breakout was captured extremely well, fully demonstrating the power of 20x leverage. From a technical perspective, BTC has broken through the 5-week triangle consolidation and the 50-week moving average. The key support level is at 83,000; as long as this level holds, the next target is 90,000.
🔥 $ETH and $DOGE are also performing well, closely following the market trend steadily upward. ETH has been oscillating around 2,700 recently, and on-chain data shows a large amount of ETH is being withdrawn from exchanges, reducing selling pressure. If it can effectively break through the 2,800 resistance, the next target is 3,000.
After BTC's breakout, the capital rotation effect on DOGE is obvious. Although it slightly pulled back to around 0.094 today, it remains in an upward channel overall. Short-term support is at 0.091; if it can hold above 0.097, it is likely to challenge the 0.10 psychological level.
Many people can't hold their positions, taking profits too quickly or cutting losses at the slightest drop. Actually, as long as the entry point is good and the overall direction is clear, the rest is left to time. Frequent trading only wears down the mindset.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Started with $100, aiming for $100K. One month later, I’m down $30.
Shorted $ZEC, ETH, and alts—and got crushed. I finally realized I was using bear-market thinking in a bull market.
This week wiped out months of profits.
Lesson learned: protect the principal first. Survive now, profit later.
The $100 → $100K challenge continues.
#FedHikesBTCResilience #CostcoBeatsMicronNext #USTreasuryYieldsRise $ETH 🔥 ETH 2,700: Pushed to 2,805 then slapped down, on 9.25 poked head at 2,700 door
9.25 early session same frame: Kraken 2,676 / Binance 2,705 / Sina 2,708 / various exchanges 2,687. Last night 2,805 was still an upper shadow, today is not a crash, it's “playing dead before expiration.”
2,775–2,825 = fake door
2,700 = closing brick, if it can't hold, then back down
2,640 = golden pit, if caught, fight again
2,600 = strong bottom line, if broken, don’t talk about 3K
2,390 = 9.16 bottom, daily close not broken, weekly line still king of rebound
BTC ETF five consecutive inflows (9/23 +347 million, five days +1.3 billion), but 10Y 5.17%, real yield 2.76 capped; Deribit quarterly expiration 182K BTC / 15.6 billion, max pain 76K — institutions buying while waiting for expiration shakeout, so ETH “dares to touch 2,805 but not hold 2,780.”
BTC 84.7K playing dead, ETH 2700 pokes head wiping sweat.
Yesterday deputy commander stole the spotlight, today back to camp sharpening knives.
Don’t chase 2700, look for support at 2640; only if it retakes 2780, 3K can be back on the menu.
(Not investment advice · for reference only) $ETH BTC has pulled back after facing resistance around $87K and is currently consolidating repeatedly near $84K. On the surface, this looks like a slowdown in the uptrend, but some noteworthy signals are still emerging from on-chain funds and spot demand. 🔎 Latest market updates: 🏦 The US spot BTC ETF continues to attract capital, with a net inflow of about $191 million on September 24, marking the 6th consecutive trading day of net inflows; the cumulative inflow over the past 6 trading days has exceeded $2.8 billion. 🐋 Wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC have increased by approximately 113,950 BTC since July 15, bringing total holdings to about 5.24 million BTC. However, this data reflects wallet balance changes and does not directly prove all purchases came from the open market. ⚡ In the leverage market, recent volatility has cleared some high-leverage positions, and market focus is shifting from "chasing gains" to whether spot funds can continue to absorb. 📉 After testing $87K, BTC has returned to the $84K area, making the short-term key question: is this a distribution of chips or a turnover consolidation during the uptrend? If ETF funds continue to flow in and large holdings keep increasing, the market structure may still be in a re-accumulation phase; conversely, if fund inflows cool significantly and key support breaks, caution is needed for further correction expansion. 👀 Key points to watch next: ETF fund flows + whale balances + OI changes + price structure near $84K. #Bitcoin #BTC #Cry80,427 and 88,259, who set these two numbers?
Coinglass is out there showing off again.
Breaking below 80,427 triggers long position liquidations of 1.674 billion.
Breaking above 88,259 triggers short position liquidations of 1.644 billion.
Who’s betting: the difference between the two sides is 30 million, almost symmetrical.
This shows that there are as many people going long as going short, no one is confident.
To follow or not: this is not a prediction, it’s a liquidation map.
Where the price moves, that side gets harvested first.
My position is still holding on the long side.
To put it plainly, I’m part of that 1.674 billion.
A welfare recipient’s life, worrying like a market maker.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 $BTC The 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.2%, the highest since 2007; the 30-year yield surged to 5.46%, a 22-year high. The 30-year mortgage rate also broke 7% on September 24, with Fannie Mae data at 7.03%, the last time it was at this level was early 2025.
On September 24, the Treasury conducted a $6 billion 20-30 year long-term bond repurchase, but only accepted $4.078 billion, an acceptance rate of 68%, a historic low. What does this mean? The sell orders reported by the market far exceeded what the Treasury was willing to accept, indicating heavy selling pressure on the long end.
The transmission chain is clear: as long-term rates rise, mortgages are hit first, with a 7% financing cost continuing to suppress home buying demand. Corporate bond issuance costs rise accordingly, and in the valuation models of high-valued assets (including tech stocks and crypto), as the discount rate rises, prices must adjust downward.
$BTC has fallen from 87,000 to around 85,000 in recent days, with ETF funds still supporting it, but with the 10-year Treasury at 5.2%, this is the risk-free return. Why would funds stay in volatile assets? In the short term, if long-term yields don’t stop rising, a rally to 90,000 for Bitcoin will be a tough battle. #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #EarningsObserver: Costco's performance exceeds expectations, Micron takes over
Last night, US stock earnings were a tale of two extremes:
On one side, the "poor man's paradise" Costco; on the other, the "AI arms dealer" Micron.
Costco (COST) Q4:
Revenue 95.7 billion beats expectations, net profit 3 billion (+15%), membership fees steadily growing.
Core logic: high-frequency essential demand + inflation resistance, proving consumer resilience remains, but valuation is already high, relying on a "slow bull" to sustain.
Micron (MU) Q3:
Revenue 41.5 billion (YoY +346%), gross margin 84.9%, HBM capacity sold out through 2026.
In short: AI servers are starving, fighting for memory more fiercely than for graphics cards, storage cycle prosperity expected through 2027.
Mapping to the crypto market:
• Costco = The Fed's confidence in "not rushing to cut rates," $BTC watches liquidity closely.
• Micron = "Earnings endorsement" of the AI narrative, AI concept coins like RNDR, TAO have the confidence to keep telling their story.
• But note: Micron is a cyclical stock; no matter how hot HBM is, overcapacity is a risk; crypto fears a stampede after expectations are maxed out.
Costco proves "people are still alive," Micron proves "AI is still burning money," crypto is caught in between, speculating on liquidity + narrative shifts.#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
After the Federal Reserve resumed rate hikes, Bitcoin did not experience the continuous crash that the market feared. Instead, it quickly absorbed selling pressure nearby, showing resilience worth noting.
BTC's current capital structure differs from the past; ETFs, institutional allocations, and long-term holders have increased market support. Recently, BTC briefly returned above $86,000, indicating that there is still buying interest even in a high interest rate environment.
If U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise and the dollar strengthens simultaneously, BTC will remain under pressure. However, if BTC repeatedly holds around $84,000 under these macro conditions, the market is trading not just on rate cut expectations but on BTC's own scarcity and institutional demand.
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
Costco's Q4 earnings landed, with both revenue and profit exceeding market expectations, validating the resilience of retail consumption. In a high interest rate environment, member spending demand remains strong, proving that the consumption foundation of U.S. residents is still intact, temporarily dispelling market fears of a rapid economic downturn and providing support to the broader market.
After the consumer earnings season wraps up, market attention quickly shifts to tech chips, with Micron taking over as the next earnings focus. As a core AI storage stock, Micron's performance directly reflects the real demand for AI servers. Its revenue, gross margin, and future guidance will directly influence sentiment across the entire AI chip sector.
Personal view
These two earnings reports represent two main market themes: Costco represents real-world consumption, Micron represents tech growth.
If Micron's earnings also beat expectations, it will further strengthen the AI computing power boom narrative, driving a rebound in tech risk assets and indirectly benefiting the crypto market; conversely, if results fall short, tech assets that have risen significantly earlier will face profit-taking, and market sentiment will quickly cool.
Given the current complex macro environment, earnings reports can only affect sentiment in the short term and cannot reverse the larger interest rate cycle. The key is not the quality of a single earnings report, but whether consecutive reports can form a sustained positive outlook. #Long-term US Treasury yields continue to rise, financing pressure heats up
This time, I think we can't just focus on whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates; the real trouble is that long-term yields are climbing on their own.
As of September 24, the 10-year US Treasury yield intraday once touched around 5.12%, and the 30-year even surged to about 5.44%, hitting multi-year highs.
What does this mean?
Simply put: borrowing money long-term in the US is getting more expensive.
The Treasury has to pay higher interest on bonds, corporate financing costs also rise, and mortgages, credit loans, and overvalued assets will all be affected. More importantly, US economic data in September remains relatively strong, while oil prices have climbed back above $100, so inflationary pressure isn't disappearing easily, and market expectations for continued tightening are also heating up.
So what the market really worries about now isn't a single rate hike itself, but **"high interest rates + fiscal financing demand + energy inflation" all occurring together**.
It's the same for $BTC. Previously, when rate cut expectations emerged, risk assets tended to rally; but if long-term US Treasury yields keep pushing higher and dollar liquidity is drained, it naturally becomes harder for $BTC to continue its rally.
What I'm paying more attention to now is whether the 10-year US Treasury yield can fall back below 5%.
If it doesn't, risk assets shouldn't get too excited. Brothers, this time the market really taught me a lesson.
Originally, I wanted to turn 200U into 50,000U, struggling for more than a month, but not only did I not double it, I actually lost tens of U.
Shorting $ZEC got hit, shorting $ETH got hit, and altcoin short positions also kept hitting stop losses. At the peak, I had more than a dozen short positions at the same time, but the market kept pushing up wave after wave.
Now I realize: it’s not that the market doesn’t give opportunities, but that I’m still using a bear market mindset in a strong bullish market.
This week I directly lost most of my profits; the highest return this month was close to 65%, now it’s basically gone.
From now on, I won’t stubbornly hold, won’t open shorts recklessly, and won’t fight the trend.
The goal remains unchanged for now; the first task is to protect the principal.
Only by staying alive at the table can there be a next round.
This is just a personal review and does not constitute investment advice, DYOR.Over the last 30 trading days, my futures account is down $141, with a profit/loss ratio of just 0.06. Honestly… the numbers look terrible. But now I understand why. Over the past week, I kept forcing shorts: ❌ $ETH short — heavy losses ❌ $ZEC short — repeatedly punished ❌ $ONE short — completely wiped out The market looked bearish. BTC dropped from around $87K → $84K. ETH fell from above $2,800 → $2,650. Altcoins were dropping one after another. And that created the biggest trap: “Is this final#财报观察员: Costco's performance exceeds expectations, Micron takes over
In this round of tech stock market, the focus has shifted from "who can tell the AI story" to "who really turns AI into profit." $MU is the most typical case to watch.
Micron's revenue last quarter reached $41.46 billion, significantly above the previous guidance of around $33.5 billion. The demand for HBM and DRAM from AI servers continues to push up product prices and profit margins. More importantly, the company's revenue guidance for the next quarter is around $50 billion, with a gross margin of about 86%, indicating that the storage chip market remains strong.
The logic is clear: $NVDA and $AMD sell computing power, $MU and $SKHYNIX sell HBM and DRAM. The faster AI data centers expand, the stronger the demand for high-end storage. The market's current concern is no longer "whether there are orders," but how long the high prices and high margins can be sustained.
Micron's next earnings report will be released on September 30, so the real focus is not just whether it beats expectations, but HBM shipments, DRAM prices, and next quarter's guidance. If these data remain strong, the AI market will further spread from GPUs to the storage chain; otherwise, once gross margins peak, the market will quickly trade the cycle turning point.Let's talk about the future trend of $UNI.
$BTC has dropped from 87,000 in the past two days, while UNI is still staying above $9. This coin has been volatile, but the part where it rose hasn't been fully given back.
UNI used to have a rather awkward problem: Uniswap is used daily, but holders of UNI often felt the coin price had little to do with the protocol's activity. Now that some protocol fees have started, related fees will be used to burn UNI through the mechanism. How the protocol performs in the future will at least add a trackable line on the token.
I think UNI still has good prospects. It surged above $10 and then dropped back, indicating some people were eager to sell there. The fact it held above $9 after the drop also shows that those willing to buy haven't left.
If it breaks through $10 again, those who once complained about it being stagnant for a long time might start asking if it's still worth chasing.Three trades. One taking profit. One refusing to let go. One buried deep in the red. 🟢 $ETH SHORT — I’LL TAKE THE WIN Entry: 2,696 Exit: 2,676 Profit: +67% | +18U After three straight short trades, I finally decided to lock the profit. With 100x full position, 18U isn’t exactly life-changing — maybe enough for a hotpot dinner. 😂 But one thing is certain: Money already secured is money you actually own. 🟣 $UNI LONG — THE PROFIT I DIDN’T TAKE Held from 5.744 → 9.124. It even reached 9.495, but Many of the long-established altcoins currently rising have ETF expectations or are supported by spot ETPs.
For example, AVAX and LTC have recently shown relatively strong performance.
From this perspective, an altcoin entering the investment scope of spot ETFs/ETPs somewhat means it is starting to attract the attention of traditional financial institutions and Wall Street, increasing the chances of gaining institutional funding later on.
Current public ETF data shows that the US market's spot crypto ETPs already cover at least 9 coins:
BTC ETH SOL XRP AVAX DOGE LTC LINK DOT
Interestingly, most of these coins have recently experienced a price rally.
On the other hand, DOT and LINK have shown relatively less significant gains so far.
Therefore, from the ETF perspective, $DOT and $LINK are actually worth continued observation. Starting from around $83,500, there is still more than $3,000 of room up to $87,000. However, a rebound does not necessarily mean it can break the previous high. More common scenarios might be: 📌 Repeated fluctuations near the previous high 📌 Briefly piercing the previous high then falling back 📌 Or directly facing resistance near the pressure level Before a true breakout, the market usually needs some time for chip exchange and direction confirmation. My view remains: don't treat every rise as a trend reversal. Truly sustained one-sided moves in a month may only last a few days; most of the time, it may still be range-bound. Therefore, if BTC approaches $87,000 again, I will pay more attention to whether an effective breakout occurs afterward, rather than assuming it will immediately hit a new high. #BTC #ETH #Bitcoin #Ethereum #CryptoMarket #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？BTC price retraces, but ETF sees net inflows for 6 consecutive days: This time, institutions haven't fled
As BTC falls from above $87,000 to around $83,000, spot BTC ETFs continue to record net inflows for 6 straight days, with a single-day net inflow of about $191 million on September 24. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT had a single-day net inflow of approximately $163 million, accounting for about 85% of the total inflows that day. During the same period, the crypto market experienced about $617 million in liquidations, with long liquidations around $546 million, indicating that this round of pullback looks more like leveraged long positions being cleared rather than a collective withdrawal by spot institutions. The real watershed now is not the daily rise or fall of BTC, but whether ETF net inflows can continue and whether BTC can firmly reclaim the $84,000–$85,000 range.
BTC falling from above $87,000 does not mean institutional funds have withdrawn. Spot BTC ETFs have net inflows for 6 consecutive days, with IBIT still the main source of incremental inflows, indicating some traditional funds are still allocating on dips. However, the simultaneous $546 million long liquidations and 10-year yield above 5.1% also show that macro pressures are real.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Long and short data collide, the market enters a phase of contention!
Bitcoin spot ETF accumulated $2.3 billion in purchases on Thursday
Net inflow yesterday was $190 million
ETF net inflow for the year has nearly reached $800 million
Directly reversing the $580 million loss at the beginning of the year
Funds have been continuously entering the market since August
Driving $BTC price from 58,000 all the way up to $84,000
However, the annual fund scale is still less than the previous two years
But short-term market funds show divergence
In the past 24 hours, BTC net outflow was 982.7873 BTC
Main trading data is also bearish
BTC total turnover $788 million
Buy volume $376 million, sell volume $412 million
Trading difference negative $35.91 million
$ETH selling pressure is even more obvious
24-hour total turnover $1.854 billion
Buy orders $872 million, sell orders $982 million
Trading difference negative $111 million
Large limit sell orders continue to emerge
At the same time, signals of whale profit-taking appear in the market
The original largest BTC long position has been fully closed
This long position pocketed nearly $1.5 million
Closing average price $83,681
Only about $1,000 above the liquidation price
An extreme escape operation
This address had long-term losses previously
Relied on the last two long positions to bring the overall trade back to profit
On one side, ETF institutions are continuously accumulating long-term
On the other side, short-term large holders and whales are cashing out profits at high levels
Long and short views show obvious divergence
Market volatility will further amplify
Continuous tracking of ETF funds and large holder orders is needed
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ $AVGO $AVGO This chart is quite interesting. Around 355, the main force is directly throwing money to push it up, the candlesticks are pulled very decisively, it strongly smells like a manipulative washout. The previous drop didn't see an increase in volume, more like shaking people off. My own observation level is around 355.73; if it breaks below, I'll admit I'm wrong and won't stubbornly hold. Purely a market anomaly, the biggest risk is chasing high and catching the knife, lighter positions are safer. Do you think this is the end of the washout or a trap dug by manipulators? Let me know in the comments if you agree.
👇👇👇1.154 billion liquidation intensity, not 1.154 billion losses
$ETH is currently stuck between 2576 and 2822.
How this number is calculated:
Coinglass sums up all the long positions at each price level.
If it drops to 2576, these long positions will be forcibly liquidated by the system.
At the moment of triggering:
Long positions are bought on borrowed money; when the price hits the line, they are automatically closed.
The sell orders from the liquidations push the price down further.
The next batch of long positions gets liquidated as well.
Common misunderstanding:
Liquidation intensity is the total volume of positions that could be liquidated.
It is not the money already lost, nor is it sell orders placed by someone.
The larger this number, the more leverage is stacked at that price level.
When the price really reaches there, the selling pressure is generated by itself.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ $ETH It's already the second rate hike, so why is $BTC still so resilient?
The Federal Reserve resumed rate hikes, and many people were waiting to see BTC plunge.
As a result, on September 16, after a 25 basis point hike, BTC hovered around $75,000 and then touched $87,000 within a few days. Now it has retreated to around $84,000, but compared to before the rate hike, the price is still higher.
I think this resilience is related to the market worrying about rate hikes early on. Before the announcement, those afraid had already sold off, and the actual hike was 25 basis points—no sudden harsher move.
When the result came out, those hoping for BTC to continue dropping didn’t get the price they wanted.
The fact that it could rise all the way to $87,000 afterward also shows that someone was willing to buy in. Yesterday’s pullback also reminded everyone: BTC is affected by interest rate expectations, and when it rises, there are still sellers. But one pullback hasn’t pushed it back to the $70,000 range, which I think is worth pondering.
Right now, I’m still bullish on BTC. As long as there’s no stronger rate hike expectation pressing down, it still has a chance to test $87,000 again.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ "Why has ZEC surged so dramatically?" "Where does this endless buying pressure come from?" "How can an asset grow from a $200 million market cap to $26 billion without manipulation?" Bankless co-founder sums it up in one sentence: The funds driving this epic ZEC rally are not new external inflows but spillover from BTC's massive liquidity pool. BTC's total capital pool is $1.7 trillion; it only takes a small portion of Bitcoin whales' positions reallocating to ZEC as a privacy hedge to support a $26 billion market cap. Four pillars of the rally ✅【Top narrative: Bitcoin's insurance】 BTC's ledger is fully transparent, and AI on-chain tracking leaves no address hidden. The market positions ZEC as: BTC against fiat, ZEC against on-chain tracking. Zero-knowledge privacy + quantum resistance, the cypherpunk narrative resonates with many crypto OGs and Silicon Valley investors. ✅【Historic institutional channel: Grayscale ZCSH Privacy ETF】 The world's first privacy coin US stock ETF launches, allowing traditional family offices and funds to allocate ZEC directly through US stock accounts. Capital from Winklevoss, Multicoin, and others publicly building large positions. Coupled with Ironwood upgrade fixing critical zero-knowledge vulnerabilities, alleviating institutions' biggest security concerns. ✅【Short squeeze cascade, continuous passive buying】 Many traders short ZEC against the trend; as the price keeps rising, it triggers forced liquidations of short positions. Short covering itself is buying pressure; one rally triggers a batch of short squeezes, continuingThe meeting is just a pulse; the crypto circle still watches liquidity
The China-US summit essentially reduces the uncertainty of great power confrontation and is an emotional geopolitical event. It can let the market briefly breathe, but it is difficult to rewrite the overall direction of the crypto market.
For $BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC, the short-term impact is only pulsed. If the meeting releases a signal of easing, global risk appetite will rise, gold's safe-haven demand will cool down in the short term, BTC and ETH sentiment will be warmer, and smaller coins like ZEC will have greater elasticity. But BTC hardly has traditional safe-haven attributes and is more like a high Beta risk asset. Whether it can continue to rise still depends on ETF funds, dollar liquidity, US Treasury yields, and US tech stocks.
If the talks intensify friction, risk appetite contracts, and funds flow to the dollar, US Treasuries, and gold, BTC is more likely to come under pressure, ETH will weaken accordingly, and ZEC usually experiences more volatility.
Historically, China-US diplomatic events rarely become the main driver of BTC trends; they only amplify intraday fluctuations. The price changes brought by news will soon return to inflation data, Federal Reserve interest rate paths, and real US Treasury yields.
In summary: If relations ease, gold faces short-term pressure, BTC/ETH sentiment is bullish, and ZEC is highly volatile; if contradictions intensify, gold's safe-haven strength rises, and BTC/ETH come under pressure. In the medium to long term, diplomatic events do not change the big picture—gold depends on real interest rates and central bank gold purchases, while Bitcoin depends on Federal Reserve liquidity. The meeting is a switch, not an engine. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ 6-Second Finality, 21 Validators, 69 Million Phantom Tokens—The Three Accounts of CORE
⚠️This article is solely an on-chain investment research review and does not constitute any investment advice
When discussing CORE, you can't just focus on the promotional claims of “sub-second transactions, BTC hash power security.” What truly determines its fundamentals are these three unavoidable accounts: 6-second final confirmation, 21 validator nodes, and 69 million phantom tokens.
First Account: 6-Second Finality, Sub-Second Is Only Pre-Confirmation
After the Hermes hard fork upgrade, CORE introduced the Fast Finality mechanism.
The so-called “sub-second transactions” in the promotion refer to sub-second pre-confirmation: when a user submits a transaction, the network receives and broadcasts it within a few hundred milliseconds, and the wallet immediately indicates the transaction has been received.
However, the irreversible final settlement requires waiting for 2 blocks, approximately 6 seconds.
The textual trap here: sub-second refers only to network reception, not final settlement. No matter how fast the transfer is, it does not mean the underlying security is without risk. The theoretical TPS can reach up to 8500, and the performance improvement is real, but do not mistake pre-confirmation for permanent settlement.
Second Account: 21 Validators, The Trade-Off Behind Performance and Decentralization
CORE’s Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus: BTC hash power ensures the security of the underlying ledger, while 21 DPoS validator nodes are fully responsible for transaction packaging and block production.
BTC hash power only participates in security voting and does not handle transaction packaging; transaction speed is entirely determined by these 21 nodes.
Advantages: fewer nodes, stable block production, confirmation speed can achieve 6-second finality;
Cost: block production rights across the entire network are controlled by 21 validators. Compared to Bitcoin’s thousands of hash power nodes, this is a clear compromise in decentralization. The smaller the node scale, the higher the risk of network manipulation and collusion.
Third Account: 69 Million Phantom Tokens, The Unshakable Historical Selling Pressure
This is the largest legacy issue left by the August 31 reward contract vulnerability.
At that time, a bug in the reward contract code caused 69 million CORE tokens to be minted out of thin air. A subsequent emergency hard fork only blocked further over-issuance going forward but did not roll back historical transactions.
These tokens have extremely low cost, no lock-up restrictions, are fully legitimate on-chain, and can be sold on exchanges at any time.
👉 Key point: Hermes speed-up can only solve transaction speed, it cannot remove already existing phantom tokens. As long as the market rallies, holders will cash out and sell, creating permanent selling pressure. Hash power can protect the block ledger but cannot protect against smart contract code bugs.
Summary
These three accounts must be viewed together:
Trading 21 validator nodes for 6-second fast confirmation means the performance boost is real; however, decentralization is weakened, and there is the historical burden of 69 million phantom tokens.
Transaction speed, network decentralization, and token supply security are inseparable. No matter how good the performance, it cannot erase the token risk left by contract vulnerabilities.
💬 Interactive question: For BTCFi public chains, do you value network performance more or the cleanliness of token supply?
#CryptoResearch #CORE #BTCFi #HermesUpgrade