Today’s market buzz

July U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000, with May-June revised down by 103,000, cutting September hike bets. Polymarket puts hold odds at ~63%, Kalshi ~65%, while CME FedWatch shows ~55.6% for no hike and ~44.4% for a 25 bp hike. Wednesday's July CPI is the next test: headline inflation is forecast to ease from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY and core from 2.6% to 2.5%, though core services may stay sticky. For crypto, will CPI confirm cooling inflation or revive September hike pricing?