Post

Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong stated at today's press conference that the current meeting between the China-US trade delegations in the US is viewed with optimistic expectations. Keywords such as "in-depth, candid, and constructive" indicate substantive progress in trade negotiations. Yesterday, in this week's macro guidance, I mentioned four key points of the China-US summit (see the first section of the pinned macro guidance for details). a. Whether the current tariff truce will be extended b. Whether a stable supply chain for rare earths and key minerals can be established c. Whether artificial intelligence will be built on a new communication and control framework d. Whether both sides will further reduce the probability of escalation in trade and technology conflicts Based on the current progress of the China-US summit, a. It has basically been implemented; the tariff truce is confirmed to be extended for 2 months until January 10, 2027. b. Negotiations on rare earths and key minerals continue; some relief has been achieved, but it remains a core sticking point. China has proposed related export controls and is reviewing compliance and civilian use applications. However, under current rules, this only temporarily alleviates the risk of supply disruption of rare earths to the US and has not yet fully entered a stable supply chain phase. c. Regarding the new AI communication and control framework, both sides have agreed to establish dialogue, discussed communication mechanisms for AI security incidents, and agreed to continue talks in Shenzhen in two months. d. Regarding conflicts in trade and technology fields, based on the first three points, there is obvious improvement, but key contradictions still exist, and structural issues have not been fully resolved. We will continue to observe these directions in the upcoming summit.