#FedOfficialsDebateHikes

A magical scene: The Fed raised interest rates last week, and institutions were still saying "maybe four to six more hikes are needed" to suppress inflation, yet the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high tonight, and $BTC kept pushing upward. According to the old script, risk assets should shrink during a rate hike cycle. But with oil prices crashing and inflation expectations easing, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back from above 5%, and the market immediately switched to risk-on mode, with risk

#FedOfficialsDebateHikes The Fed just delivered a 25bp hike, and the debate has already moved to whether October brings another one 🏛️ CME pricing puts the probability of an additional 25bp increase at roughly 54.2%, which feels more like a coin toss than a clear consensus. Fed officials sound divided too. Barkin noted that over 60% of PCE components are still rising above 3% YoY, Collins warned that inflation may remain above target, and Musalem said further tightening could be necessary. What stands out to me is that economic and employment resilience now cuts both ways. It reduces immediate recession concerns, but it also gives the Fed more room to remain restrictive. The next decision probably won’t come down to one headline number. I’ll be watching whether inflation stays broad—and whether the labor market finally begins to soften 🔍

#FedOfficialsDebateHikes One hike didn't settle the debate 👀 After September's 25bp hike, markets still price roughly a 54% chance of another in October. What stands out is why: inflation remains broad, with Barkin saying 60%+ of PCE components are rising above 3%, while jobs and growth remain resilient. The Fed isn't just asking whether inflation is falling anymore. It's asking whether rates are high enough to finish the job. For BTC and risk assets, the terminal rate may matter more than

Fed still hiked 25bps Warsh still hawkish Dots still point to more Tariffs, oil, midterms the tape ate all of it and alts still printed $BTC +4.6%. $ETH +5.8%. $SOL +10%. Then the real tell: $NEAR +78%. $ARB +56%. $ENA +51%. $AVAX +50%. $UNI +36%. $ZEC +37%. $SUI +29% => That’s not one ticker. That’s beta coming back after the wash#CryptoCapReclaims2.8T #ZEC38KShortClosed #TrumpGulfIranTalks

Why crypto is pumping The hike was already priced in, so the sell-off happened ahead of the print. Shorts got squeezed, oil cooled off, and altcoins led the move — especially ZEC, HYPE, and DeFi. This doesn’t look like fresh liquidity entering the market. Rates actually moved higher, while ETFs are still seeing outflows. $80K BTC remains the key level. For now, this looks more like a relief rally than a regime change. #FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules

Crypto is reacting to the Fed again. The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 basis points, its first hike in more than three years. $BTC initially moved higher with broader markets, but the bigger question is what happens after the first reaction. A rate hike changes the liquidity environment. And crypto has become increasingly sensitive to liquidity. So I'm watching $BTC around the $76K area and $ETH around $2.4K. The interesting part isn't the headline. It's whether buyers can absorb the tighter financial conditions. The first move is often noise. The reaction afterward is what I care about. #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve

The Fed just ended three years of stillness. First hike since July 2023. The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25bps, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Chair Warsh said inflation is "too high and has been for too long." The market had largely priced it in, with hike odds near 93% by decision day after hot August inflation data helped flip expectations. But the hike itself is not the story. The dot plot is. The new median dot implies one more 25bps hike before year-end, putting December firmly in play. The updated projections: · PCE inflation is now seen at 3.7% for end-2026, up from 3.6% in June · Core PCE rose to 3.4%, and the Fed does not expect inflation back at 2% until 2029 · Unemployment was revised down to 4.1%, while 2026 GDP growth moved up to 2.3% · The longer-run fed funds rate projection rose to 3.2%, keeping higher-for-longer in the frame Behind the inflation problem is an energy shock tied to the Iran conflict, with oil back above $100 and diesel prices elevated. The White House wants lower rates. The Fed delivered the opposite. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% before the decision, then pulled back toward 4.96%. In H1 2026, US spot BTC ETFs saw about $5.4B in net outflows as BTC fell from the mid-$90K area in January to the low-$60K area in May. The CLARITY Act also failed its Senate cloture vote 49-50 one day before the Fed, pulling a key regulatory catalyst off the table. Bitcoin briefly popped after the announcement, then gave the move back. Nobody heard a Fed that thinks the job is finished. Warsh also avoided committing to a fixed path, keeping the next move data-dependent. The Q4 setup: rates higher, oil elevated, yields near 5%, ETF demand fragile and regulatory progress stalled. That is not an easy soft-landing setup. Which matters more for BTC into Q4: the dot plot, ETF flows, or regulatory uncertainty? #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23

Here's something not very pleasant. The rate hike in September has landed, but don't relax too soon. The probability of another 25 basis points hike in October according to CME has already reached 55%. This is not a small probability; it's like flipping a coin#CryptoRecoveryBroadens #UNI21%RallyOnSECRule #ZECPositionsDiverge

$BTC x $ETH post-Fed 📊 Fed hiked 25bps. Unanimous. Warsh hawkish. Priced in. No panic dump. No melt-up. $BTC — around $75.8K. Wick $75.3K. $76K is still broken. Support: $75K. Lose it, and $73K is next. Bulls need $77.5K back. $80K is not in play. $ETH — around $2.38K. Range $2.37–$2.43 after the print. $2.45K is still resistance. $2.35K is the floor. #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates