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This sideways consolidation is really wearing me down.
It wants to break out but keeps delaying, wants to drop but can't fall further, the price has been tugged back and forth for so long, the probing and inducement on the market are already quite obvious. Instead of continuing to play around, it's better to just pick a direction.
I just opened another short position again. It feels like the market has given small profits a few times, just to make the bears exit early, but this time I didn't rush to leave. With this current pull-up, I tend to see it as another short-term liquidity battle.
The key now is still to see if $BTC can break below $82,000 again. As long as this level holds for a long time, the bears can't be too aggressive; if it breaks before midnight, the short-term structure may weaken further.
Tonight, I won't guess the direction, just watch how the price moves. Whoever has the higher position cost will naturally be reflected in the market in the end. $BTC$BTC surged then pulled back, is this wave over?
$BTC just touched 87,000 a couple of days ago, then turned back to around 84,000. When BTC takes a breather, everyone starts looking for the next coin that can move.
I really want to see this rotation, but calling it altcoin season now is still a bit early. $BTC's market dominance is around 57%, slightly higher than a week ago. If a large amount of capital were moving out of BTC, we should see more coins steadily rising, not just one moving today and another popping up tomorrow.
Right now, it looks more like people are just switching seats; it’s not yet the time for the whole market to get lively. Whether BTC can hold steady above 80,000 next is crucial. If it rests here, the market has space to look for other opportunities; if it continues to drop sharply, the altcoins that just started to pick up will likely get hit too.
I’ll be watching if the coins that rise first can hold their gains. If other sectors pick up in a few days, then the rotation will really have some flavor. BTC can take a break, but don’t flip the table.🚨 $BTC pullback accelerates, key support directly broken!
$BTC has quickly dropped from the recent high of about $87.3K and is now in the $83K–$84K range, with short-term structure clearly cooling down.
I mentioned before that after this rise, a deeper retracement might be needed, so I’m not rushing to buy the dip for now.
📉 Short-term key levels to watch: • $84K → first reaction zone
• $82K → next key support
• $80K → more important structural defense level
• Reclaiming $86K → only then can we reassess bullish momentum
Additionally, around $16B in BTC options expire on September 25, and derivative position adjustments may further amplify short-term volatility.
Interestingly, while the price is falling, the latest settled trading day for the US spot BTC ETF still recorded about $184.7M net inflow, indicating spot funds have not fully withdrawn yet.
❌ $ARB was also stopped out this time.
But trading can’t always be profitable. One loss after consecutive recent gains doesn’t mean the strategy is invalid; controlling position size, executing stop losses, and waiting for the next confirmation are key.
No chasing the dip now, no rushing to catch a falling knife.
🎯 Wait for the structure to stabilize, then look for the next opportunity.
#BTC #ARB #CryptoMarket #BTCPullback #Bitcoin #BTC pullback after rally, has market rotation begun? Bitcoin once broke through $87,000 this Monday, then retreated. However, the market discussion focus has shifted from BTC itself to a more noteworthy question: can the trend spread from Bitcoin to a broader range of crypto assets?
The latest data from Glassnode gives a clear signal — its market cycle indicator has switched to "altcoin dominance" mode. In the past week, 72.5% of tracked assets outperformed BTC. Coins like NEAR, UNI, ZEC have shown noticeably stronger recent trends, and Meme assets such as PEPE, WIF, DOGE have also heated up simultaneously, with signs of capital outflow becoming clear.
In terms of short-term variables, on September 25, Deribit will have about $16 billion nominal value of BTC quarterly options expiring, and adjustments in hedge positions may trigger volatility. But the deeper divergence lies in whether continuous involvement from institutional funds like ETFs and corporate treasuries is rewriting BTC's traditional four-year cycle pattern. Whether the volatility after options expiration will interrupt the current rotation rhythm, and whether the trend of more assets outperforming BTC can continue, will be the core observation points for the market going forward. $ETH $BTC $SOL "Following so-called crypto gurus to trade Bitcoin $BTC, why do you still end up not making money?"
Many retail investors who don't understand the market like to join various groups looking for "teachers" to lead trades, fantasizing about profiting by following the gurus, but often end up losing even more.
The underlying logic here is actually very harsh:
1. Winning rate screenshots are cherry-picked: Many people show screenshots of 100x returns, but behind the scenes, they might have dozens of small hedged positions or are using simulated trading accounts, only showing you the profitable trades.
2. Timeliness and price differences: By the time you see the opening position message in the group, Bitcoin $BTC has often already moved hundreds of dollars, so your entry cost is much worse than others, and you can't hold up against even a slight pullback. (Actually, copy trading is the same; you might enter at a very bad position.)
3. Psychological resilience cannot be copied: Others can afford to lose $500, but you might lose $50 and lose your composure. Different position sizes and risk tolerance mean blindly copying others' strategies is a sure way to fail.
In the real-money trading market, no one is responsible for your wallet. Establish your own simple rules; even if you earn slower, it's a thousand times better than blindly trusting others. $BTC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Paulson's words sound tough, but there's a bit of insecurity behind that toughness.
They just raised rates in September, then immediately said "maybe we have to do it again." Fighting inflation halfway through, they find core inflation stubbornly high and the economy still resilient. In plain language: the previous rate hikes weren't enough, now they have to add more.
The problem is, the Fed itself isn't confident. Inflation risks changed even before the September meeting, which means the data has been contradicting them all along. Now talking about raising rates again feels more like a warning to the market rather than a confident move.
For the crypto world, this kind of "maybe" is the worst. It's not a realized negative, but a looming one. You never know when the next cut will come, you can only wait to get sliced.
Tough talk is useless, look at the data.
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ #高利率下，黄金还能走多远？ $BTC Last June, they were still shouting that Bitcoin is the primary asset; this September, 314 coins, all sold clean.
Sequans, this French semiconductor company, in less than a year and a half, reduced from over 3,200 BTC all the way down to zero.
Simply put: convertible bonds need to be repaid, so they sold coins to pay off debt, then went back to their core business.
My first reaction when I saw this was not surprise, but familiarity.
Isn't this exactly what I did?
Believed the story at a high point, couldn't hold on midway, and finally cut losses when no one was watching.
The only difference is I cut my own money, they cut shareholders'.
The CEO said last year that Bitcoin is a highly attractive long-term investment, now says they are refocusing on core business.
Nothing wrong with what he said, just sounds awkward.
The real ones worth watching are not just this company.
At the end of July, data showed that at least nine companies will have liquidated or abandoned crypto reserve strategies by 2026.
One company exiting is their own business; nine companies exiting is a trend.
This means those companies propping up valuations by issuing bonds to buy coins are being backfired on by the same logic.
For the market, this kind of selling pressure isn't fierce, but it is continuous and unemotional.
When the day comes that such liquidation news comes out and prices don't fall, that will be the real sign someone has caught it.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 #美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ $BTC $ONDO is up 25.96% at $0.5196 with $43.2M volume. The move has real participation, but I’m not chasing the expansion. I’m watching $0.50–0.51 as the retest zone. If buyers defend it and reclaim $0.525 with volume, I’d consider the long.
Entry: $0.505–0.515
SL: $0.485
TP1: $0.54 | TP2: $0.56 | TP3: $0.59 | TP4: $0.63
R:R: ~1:1.2–1:4.5
Below $0.485 invalidates it. Conditional setup.Japan really can't hold on this time. The US 10-year Treasury yield has surged to 5.13%, and if Japan dares not to raise interest rates, the yen will be blasted in minutes, capital will flee entirely, and domestic hyperinflation will occur.
But if Japan follows with a rate hike, the 30-year high Treasury yield (3.075%) will immediately crush fiscal interest payments.
This is a dilemma, but reality forces them to grit their teeth and follow the US.
This situation is definitely a hidden risk for the crypto circle.
Once Japan is forced to raise rates, the world's largest "yen carry trade" will face massive liquidation.
Funds will have to frantically sell risk assets to repay yen debt and convert back to yen.
The US stock market and BTC will be hit first, which is also the fundamental reason why the market has been sluggish recently and funds dare not enter aggressively.
Understanding this logic, I dare not make reckless moves. I won’t blindly guess the bottom or touch contracts.
Honestly hold onto BTC and ETH spot, keep enough ammunition.
Endure this wave of liquidity contraction, wait for the macro deadlock to completely break down, then we’ll go back in to pick up cheap chips with blood on them.
Stay steady, drink tea, and watch the show.
#日本10年期国债收益率创30年新高 Consumption is weak, there isn't enough money to pay off debt, so interest rates have to be raised.
You really hit the nail on the head with that—this is a complete vicious cycle.
Look at today's macro data: the 5-year US Treasury yield broke 5% (first time since 2007), the 30-year mortgage rate is close to 7%, yet the initial PMI surged to 58.4, the highest since July 2021.
On the surface, it looks like the economy is resilient, but in reality, inflation and debt are pulling against each other.
Consumption is weak, people have no money in their pockets, but the US government still needs to maintain massive spending, and the Treasury even plans to expand long-term Treasury buybacks.
If interest rates aren't raised, who would want to buy US Treasuries? But if rates stay high, the real financing costs and mortgage costs will be completely crushed, businesses can't hold on, and consumption will only worsen.
The current situation is: borrowing costs are too high, and no matter how good the economic data looks, it's just a false boom.
Cut rates? Inflation could rebound at any time, the Fed simply doesn't dare to move. Raise rates? The government itself can't afford the interest.
So it just drags on, waiting to see who breaks first.
For someone like me who trades crypto, high interest rates are like a sword hanging over risky assets.
Liquidity keeps drying up, so BTC and ETH can only fluctuate widely.
That's why I absolutely won't bet on a macro turnaround, and I definitely avoid contracts.
Hold the spot positions, keep your ammo ready, and wait for the day this vicious cycle finally breaks, then we'll enter to pick up the bloodied chips.
Stay steady, only those who endure have a future.
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ $ONE Sigh, before it was over 40% long, 60% short, negative funding rate, so going long was no pressure at all. Now looking at the data, over 60% are long, 40% short, and the funding rate is positive. No idea how it will rise, a bunch of trapped positions.Seeing the news about the US and Iran resuming contact, I really laughed out loud. After Trump's word "productive," Brent crude oil directly fell below 100, touching 98
And the result? The two sides didn't reach any agreement at all, Iran firmly stated it would not surrender, and oil prices immediately bounced back to 103
This kind of roller coaster is purely the market being toyed with based on news.
No one really believes these verbal positives anymore
Trump has gone back on his word countless times, one moment saying talks went well, the next moment flipping and continuing extreme pressure
Before a real ceasefire agreement is implemented and the blockade lifted, all these messages are just gimmicks for market manipulation.
In the past, when I saw news of oil price crashes, I would rush to chase the rise or open positions, but often got stabbed back and forth by this unpredictable geopolitical game
Now I've completely seen through it, and I absolutely won't blindly follow the news.
I'll wait until it really happens. Honestly hold onto the BTC and ETH spot I have, avoid contracts, turn off the software and go have some tea
No matter how heated it gets outside, I only trade within my own understanding, with stability as the priority.
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ 今日被涮 $ONDO +19.65% | 吐槽定调 空 $ONDO今天暴涨22%，我用最直白最不绕弯子的话告诉你——做空。入场$0.50到$0.51区间，止损$0.515（上方$0.5134是7日高点铁墙），第一目标$0.4435，第二目标$0.4026，5倍杠杆，盈亏比大概6比1。为啥空？持仓量不增反减234万U，价格拉这么猛钱却在跑路，这涨得跟「音响没问题你们唱吧」一个道理，不是你唱得好，是对手退赛了。短挤的味儿冲得很，价格涨了22%持仓量反而缩水，这不是行情来了，是空头被拉爆了在认赔平仓。 $ONDO这7天走得跟过山车似的。17号开盘$0.3726，磨到$0.3965收盘，5100万U成交量不温不火，典型的底部磨洋工。18号一根阳线拉到$0.4348，差点摸$0.4435，涨了快10%但量也没怎么放。19号就泄了气跌回$0.4167，多头还没站稳脚跟就挨了一闷棍。20号又支棱起来冲$0.4585，21号摸到$0.4639这7天次高点后开始缩量，信号不太妙。22号直接砸到$0.4106，最低插到$0.4026，那根阴线把前三天涨幅吃了大半，看着像要破位往下走。 真正的大I’m honestly numb. 😵💫
I went long at 0.0546 thinking I caught the bottom, but now it’s down near 0.048 and my account is showing -33%.
The market feels extremely bearish, with everyone calling for zero and piling into shorts. But when sentiment becomes this one-sided, a sharp squeeze can happen.
I’m using 3x leverage and watching the key levels closely. Let’s see whether the bulls can fight back. ⚡📈
$BTC $ETH $MUBARAK
#BTCPullbackAltRotation
#USTreasuryYieldsRise
#TokenizedStocks24/7 Low-volume oscillation is the most demoralizing; seeing all indicators oversold makes my hands start itching again. But after carefully weighing the depth, support levels without volume backing are essentially made of paper. The system signals standstill, so don't move. At times like this, guarding your principal is more important than frequent trading. Turn off the candlestick chart, go out for a walk, and avoid becoming a market consumable.
$BNB $CAKE $TWT $ETH Options Expiry Day Analysis: 2628 is the short-term bottom, 2706 is the short-term top, direction to be chosen after expiry
$ETH fluctuated between 2628 and 2706 today, with a range of nearly $80.
From a technical perspective, 2628 is today's low and a key support on the 1-hour chart. This level coincides with a previous breakout retest, with clear buying support around 2628. 2706 is today's high and short-term resistance, with three failed attempts to break through.
From a capital perspective, $16 billion worth of BTC and ETH options expire today, with the maximum pain point near 2600. The current price is 2681, above the pain point, indicating greater pressure on the Call side. Market makers are motivated to push the price down to invalidate Calls. However, judging by the buying strength at 2628, the downside demand is not weak.
From the news side, Multicoin proposed RWA on-chain to initiate DeFi 2.0, with Ethereum as the biggest beneficiary. This narrative is mid-term and does not affect the price in the short term. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 The market is debating dozens of narratives.
But price has already confirmed three: Privacy, RWA, and AI.
🔐 Privacy $ZEC ~$25B — institutional-accessible privacy $XMR ~$10.4B — the established privacy standard $DASH ~$0.8B — same sector, but still far smaller
🏦 RWA Ethereum RWA leader ~$2.1B — tokenized treasuries & stocks with real TVL $SYRUP ~$240M — private credit with real loans and yield $CFG < $100M — small cap exposure to $1B+ tokenized assets
#DailyOrbit I can't understand those who are still bearish because of interest rate hikes and think the cycle bottom hasn't arrived yet:
1. Trend is a good thing. Looking back at the full BTC cycle, any quarterly candle that covers the previous down candle is the first sign of a trend reversal.
2. Most of BTC's gains happen during interest rate hike cycles, and the rate is already lower than the peak in 2023, when BTC was at 25k-28k. If you believe BTC can't rise under high interest rates, you'll just keep missing out.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ $SOPH Last night my hand trembled slightly when setting the stop loss, and this morning I realized it was an unnecessary act of filial piety.
Last night before bed, SOPH pushed up once again. Every surge was just short of a breath, volume didn’t keep up, and the resistance above was glaringly obvious. I saw the high point couldn’t hold steadily, judged it as a bull trap, and during the repeated intraday fluctuations, I directly signaled a short position strategy. From 0.010142 down to 0.003832, the short position yielded +1244.13%. This wave gave the answer; the previous grind was tough, now it’s truly satisfying.
The market specializes in curing all kinds of arrogance, especially from those who think they are the smartest.
It wasn’t a wasted wait, brothers. When I first opened the chart, the profit was already there. I closed 80% first, pocketed the bulk, and raised the stop loss on the remaining 20% to the cost price. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, don’t give the profit back.
For friends who haven’t gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in. Chasing shorts easily leaves you stuck halfway up the mountain. Wait for the next move, wait for a new structure to emerge, then I’ll signal immediately. The market doesn’t lack opportunities, it lacks patience.
$ZEC $ADA Although the positive news about $ONDO has been announced and the price has risen, the market has not yet fully reflected the entire potential value of this news in the price. There is still room for further price increase or it may require time to gradually digest.
Considering ONDO's situation, it can be understood from two levels:
1. Short-term sentiment is in place, but real capital has not yet arrived.
The part that has already fermented: after the news came out, the price rose 24% within 24 hours, with buy orders accounting for 78%. This is the emotional reaction as everyone rushed in because of the name BlackRock.
The part that has not yet fermented: the three customized on-chain composite tokens by BlackRock have just been launched. How much traditional financial institution capital they can attract to buy, and how much on-chain locked value (TVL) they can bring, the real capital inflow data has not yet appeared. In a few days or weeks, if the on-chain data indeed shows a large influx of capital, that will be the true "positive news landing and fermenting."
2. The market's recognition of the news is still at an early stage.
Surface recognition: most retail investors see the news as ONDO cooperating with BlackRock and think it is a major positive, so they buy directly.
Deep recognition, the unfermented part: professional institutions are still studying the terms. Let's wait and see.Hyperliquid open interest contracts reached 18 billion, with a total market 24-hour liquidation of 491 million, longs accounting for 366 million. The market is concentrating on liquidating long positions, showing short-term weakness.
Bitcoin liquidations hit 128 million and Ethereum 92.32 million. The main force is still rotating among large-cap assets, making altcoins vulnerable to capital outflows. Zhao Changpeng met with the President of Sierra Leone and Sam Altman gave a UN speech; both are long-term narratives with no direct capital transmission to TAKE intraday.
TAKE current price is 0.0608, technical indicators signal bearishness. There is dense short liquidation at 0.0643 above, and less long liquidation pressure below, indicating that price touching around 0.0640 will trigger a short covering pulse, but if the breakout fails, the pullback will be faster. Just parked the car under the shade and took a sip of water; the order pushing keeps shaking nonstop, so I’m giving the position directly.
Short in batches from 0.0608 to 0.0632, stop loss at 0.0652, take profit first at 0.0560, if broken look to 0.0525.
$xTTWO
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易
@OKX星球 $ADA Surges and then retreats, a bit soft
The highest level reached 0.2622 and then it lost interest. It looks okay, but after 180 days, it's only 2.56%—the sadness of an old public chain.
The 4-hour supertrend line is at 0.2604, with the price being pushed down. This ADA wave is a catch-up rally, with significant resistance above 0.26. Don't chase heavily before it holds steady; if you have profits, buy a little in batches to secure your profits!
$HYPE Long-term bulls, wildly testing before the 100 mark
Recently, it hit a high of 98.041, just shy of breaking 100, but then got knocked down again. But look at the long cycle: this is the real big deal.
Currently, the price is consolidating at a high level below. This is a typical case of "air refueling" after a big rally. As long as it doesn't fall below the 90 round number, the trend is not bad. This type of coin is suitable for buying in batches during major drops; never chase during a surge to avoid being caught on the mountaintop.
$ETC "Doomsday Tank" has been running from 7.08 all the way to 10.414, finally holding its ground.
ETC pulls the market—even seasoned investors know what it means (traditional skill: sucking the market). It just broke through the 10 yuan mark but didn't hold steady, which is a fake breakout pullback shakeout. Pay attention, the super trend support below is far at 8.804! So this position is very awkward right now; chasing higher is easy to get hit. It's recommended to wait until it pulls back to 9 yuan or even around 8.8 before considering buying in.
Right now, the market is in a fluctuating rotation: ADA and ETC are catch-up rallies followed by pullbacks, while HYPE is in a strong high-level consolidation. When the market is uncertain, having a U in hand is the real deal!The speeches by the Chinese and American leaders before the talks have ended, and the outcome is somewhat mixed. Overall, both sides proactively downplayed the term "strategic confrontation" during their meeting, which is normal; the leaders of the two G2 countries cannot afford to lose face.
The economic and trade negotiation speeches were relatively optimistic, but the crucial issues of rare earths and minerals were not mentioned. The rare earth issue is likely to be discussed privately alongside the Taiwan issue, as it is inappropriate to bring it up publicly; both are each side's trump cards.
The Chinese leader took the initiative to mention the AI issue, and Trump responded. Artificial intelligence has officially become a core part of the national-level strategic competition between China and the US. Previously, it was a covert contest; going forward, it will be an open and explicit national strategic policy.
So far, there is little substantive content from the previous speeches. The attitude is good, but the specific difficulties remain. Next, we will see how both sides express themselves after the first day of talks!
Currently, China is trying to establish a new diplomatic strategic relationship with the US, basically moving from strategic competition → controlled competition → ultimately to constructive strategic stability. At present, it is still in the first stage of strategic competition. Next, we will see if this China-US summit can enter the second stage—controlled competition! #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #BTC surged then pulled back, has market rotation started?
I am the mid-term intelligence guy, wishing everyone a happy Mid-Autumn Festival!!!
$BTC is now at 84500, it surged up near 87000 but failed to break through and dropped back. This is not true rotation yet, it's the stage of "BTC leading the rally, small coins testing the waters."
I don't see the mid-term structure as broken; the 4-hour and daily charts are still trending up. This wave has been climbing steadily from 75,000 to 80,000, supported by ETF inflows, short squeezes, and risk appetite returning. But if you look closer: $ETH hasn't outperformed BTC, among altcoins only $SOL, XRP, and dog-themed coins are emerging, and BTC dominance is still holding, indicating money is mainly flowing from BTC to higher beta coins, not a full altcoin season.
The 82,000 level is very critical: if it breaks above and holds 85,000 today, then tests 86,500-87,500, the uptrend will continue; if it fails to hold 82,000, it will be a breakout pullback turning into a consolidation washout.
Don't get overly excited chasing now, nor declare the bull dead. My take: rotation is showing signs!
Mid-term bias is bullish, short-term is in a shakeout.The market has bounced back all the way from deep oversold conditions since last night, with $BTC returning above 84,000 and $SOL leading the rebound with over a 2% gain. The comment section is already shouting "the bottom is here." I'm still holding no position.
The core of low-frequency big bets is that most of the time you stay out of the market waiting for the right cards, rather than rushing in on every rebound. Today's rebound is on low volume; the momentum hasn't caught up, and the macro pillar—high funding costs—remains unchanged. A low-volume rebound does not equal a trend reversal. In this kind of market, chasing longs risks getting trapped, and naked shorts risk being squeezed. Neither side is my game.
After playing cards for a long time, you'll understand: what really decides winning or losing are the hands you don't bet. Waiting for the right cards is also a position. Are you feeling uncomfortable holding no position right now?Crypto Night Session: Defend First, Wait for BTC to Signal
BTC surged to 87,000 but failed, retreating to around 84,100, down about 2.66%. Fed officials continue hawkish remarks, keeping rate hike expectations high and suppressing risk appetite; short-term bottom fishing is not advisable. 84,000 is the current support; if lost, look to 82,000; only reclaiming 85,000 qualifies for another push to 87,000.
ETH at 2,656, down 3.14%, weaker than BTC. After a high of 2,755, it retraced; if 2,650 breaks, 2,600 is next. Staking funds are highly divergent, avoid catching falling knives.
SOL dropped from 118 to 113.68, down 3.15%. ETF inflows provide some support, but the overall market drag is evident; 110 is key—holding it offers a chance.
OKB at 118.7, down 2.67%, relatively resilient. Platform coin base holdings are stable, with 21 million locked tokens still a narrative; previous high of 142 is possible. It may move first once the market stabilizes.
RE at 0.452, down only 1.18%. A small-cap RWA + DeFi insurance token, daily volume about 5 million; thin liquidity but resilient. If 0.45 holds, it remains watchable.
Overall: After the surge and pullback, rotation is unconfirmed. Watch supports first, don’t rush rebounds, wait for BTC to stabilize before considering offense.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
#美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ $BTC $ETH $SOL I find this pretty insane.
Open interest has completely flushed back to the same levels we saw when $BTC was trading at 76K, yet price is at 84K.
To me, that looks extremely healthy.Stuck in an awkward position, really frustrating
Reduced my position a bit without loss, now slowly holding on
I want to see when this bull run will end
The $ETH short at 2640 is still open, but the position has been significantly reduced, and the floating loss is compressed to around 600U, much less pressure than a few days ago.
The price is now hovering around 2680, with the 1-hour MA5, MA10, and MA20 basically converging.
The convergence of moving averages has a very intuitive meaning: the long and short costs are getting closer, the previous one-sided momentum is fading, but the direction hasn't been truly chosen yet.
I'm not in a hurry to add to my position or to exit
If it revisits 2650–2640, I'll continue to reduce my position; since it can't break away from around 2700, I'll slowly hold the short. The stop loss at 2800 remains, and I won't extend the boundary of this position upward anymore.
$SOL is actually relatively strong
Currently around 117, it has short-term reclaimed above the moving averages, and if it breaks through around 118, there's a chance to retest previous highs. Until it shows clear weakness, I won't force the $ETH short logic onto $SOL.
$SPCX is much weaker
It dropped from around 153 to 146, now only recovering to about 148, with short-term moving averages still pressing the price, and the rebound strength is clearly weaker than $SOL.
The market is clearly diverging now. I've already reduced my $ETH position, and I'll wait for the direction to reveal itself. With a lighter position, there's room for judgment, and controlling the rhythm is enough.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ The Bank of Japan is about to move! Interest rate hike is coming, how will $BTC BTC perform tonight?
The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds surged to 3.075%, the highest since 1996.
But what I actually think is truly worth watching is where the money is flowing.
Global funds are relocating, and whether BTC can continue to rise depends on where the money ultimately flows.
Japan used to have very low interest rates, and many people liked to borrow cheap yen to invest in risky assets like US stocks and BTC. Now that Japan's interest rates and government bond yields are rising, borrowing yen is becoming more expensive, and some funds may return to Japan.
On the US side, the Federal Reserve's rates are still relatively high, meaning the dollar isn't that cheap either.
But interestingly, on the other side, stablecoins are still channeling dollars into global markets, and institutional funds are still buying BTC through ETFs.
I focus on three points:
First: Japan's rate hike = higher cost of capital
Second: Fed's high interest rates = dollar liquidity under pressure
Third: Stablecoins + BTC ETFs = funds flowing into crypto
So don't just see "Japan rate hike = BTC will fall."
What really matters is whether the total amount of funds continues to flow into BTC.
Simply put:
Interest rates determine how expensive money is, stablecoins determine where money flows, ETFs determine whether institutional money enters BTC.
What else do you think we should watch? Will the crypto market crash because of Japan's rate hike? #日本10年期国债收益率创30年新高 #美元稳定币或加速出海 #200 Yuan Challenge to 1 Million Phase 2 · Day 8 (Supplementary Update)
First, about the time: it's 1 a.m. now. I was busy all day yesterday, so the journal is only being written now. Sorry, but not a single transaction will be missed.
Yesterday's (9/24) account: total assets 200.33, today +48.03 (+31.53%). This is the best day since switching to both long and short positions.
Two trades, one long and one short, both close to 30%:
$ONE long: opened at 0.0020039, closed at 0.0023097, +5.17 (+29.52%). I've shorted ONE in the first phase and got hit by it; this time I went long and caught the right direction, pocketing 29.52%.
$AKE short: opened at 0.05063, closed at 0.04343, +3.58 (+28.34%). AKE is an old opponent from before; last time it surged over double and almost wiped me out; this time I shorted correctly and earned 28.34%.
Did you notice? One trade was long, the other short. Half a month ago, the ONE trade wouldn't have existed because the phrase "only short" locked me in. Today, I captured both sides of the market.
I said before, I felt uneasy on the day of the transition, thinking I betrayed my original intention. But today's 48 yuan answered that question for me: I didn't betray my judgment; I learned to survive. I still believe in the altcoin bubble logic, but I also recognize another fact—when the market rises, riding the wave is a skill, not a shame.
I really like the current rhythm: 2x leverage, always with stop-loss, following both long and short, holding for two days and exiting if it doesn't go as expected. The account grew from $10 to 200 yuan (about $28), step by step.
One more thing: I was too busy yesterday to update in time, but trades were made as usual with stop-losses in place. Trading rules don't stop because of busyness—that's my most reassuring point now.
Let's chat in the comments: do you think my current "long and short following + low leverage + two-day rule" system can run sustainably? Experienced folks, please share some advice 🤝
Stop-loss always on, low leverage, position management, all holdings disclosed. For reference only, not investment advice. #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 $CP I was just about to go to the forum to rant, but then I checked the balance and decided against it; the market is always right.
While everyone else was still hesitating, CP was already showing signs of weakness at the high level, with weak rebounds. Low volume, strong selling pressure, every surge lacked strength, each attempt weaker than the last. I judged that the high-level resistance was not lifted, and at the time I advised waiting for confirmation on short positions, not to chase recklessly.
From 0.03914 down to 0.01293, the short position +1339.8% gave the answer, really satisfying. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly rewarding.
Being out of position is not a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake. The money you make is the realization of your understanding; the money you lose is the flaw in your understanding.
Take profits on 80% first, keep the remaining 20% at cost as a protective position. There’s still opportunity; let profits run with further downside, and if it rebounds, don’t give back your gains.
For friends who haven’t entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to chase shorts. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. Opportunities remain, don’t rush, act when the next signal appears. If you miss it, don’t chase.
$ZEC $SOL "As long as I don't sell, it doesn't count as a loss": The most fatal self-comfort for retail investors in the crypto circle
When trapped in losses, the vast majority of retail investors numb themselves with one phrase: "As long as I don't sell, it's only an unrealized loss on paper; someday it will rebound."
But applying this phrase to different assets leads to vastly different outcomes:
1. If it's Bitcoin $BTC: Because it is the consensus foundation of the entire industry, as long as the long-term cycle continues, the next bull market will most likely truly unlock losses and even reach new highs.
2. If it's air coins and meme tokens: The fate of most altcoins is a one-way downward slide. Once the project team has made enough money and distributed the tokens, no one will spend real money to pump the price and unlock your losses.
Holding on stubbornly after being trapped is not just a matter of loss numbers; more critically, your funds are completely locked. You watch the real bull market mainline start, but you have no available liquidity to position yourself. Recognizing reality and decisively exchanging worthless tokens for certain assets is the first step to stop the bleeding. $ETH $BTC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 $ETH pulled from 2628 to 2706 tonight and then dropped back, now at 2681. 16 billion in options expire today, the big players want to pin the price at the max pain point, so this small retail investor better not join the fray.
Multicoin says RWA on-chain kicks off DeFi 2.0, sounds great, but it has nothing to do with my position tonight. The long at 2650 is barely in profit now, and I don’t dare add more, afraid a spike at expiration will sweep me out.
Up 67% in 90 days, all the profits that should be made are made, now just don’t give back the gains on expiration day.
One word for today: wait. Wait until 4 PM settlement is done, let it rise or fall as it will. #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #ETH冲高2700美元，质押与资金面现分化 热闹是真的，底下松也是真的。 你看到的下跌，是趋势启动还是情绪泄气？ 昨晚盯盘的时候有种很微妙的感觉，群里还在喊牛市没走，几个主流币的盘口却已经开始各走各的了。表面像是普跌，结构上其实更像第一波分歧：追多的人还在扛，短线资金已经先撤了。 BTC从87374那根高点滑到83166，24小时跌了不到1%，看着不吓人。但关键是它从74896一路拉上来，中途几乎没给过像样的回踩，这种节奏里，一旦在87000上方接不住，最先崩的不是价格，是杠杆多头的耐心。82812这个位置挺微妙的，守住还能装没事，丢了大概率会去摸82000，再下面81000才是情绪真正会慌的地方。反过来，只要重新站回84000上方，空头就得小心被反抽教育。 ZEC更典型。1680回落到1479，从高点掉了两百多，买盘明显没之前那么凶了。1455如果继续破，1400是下一个心理关口；但要是收回1536上方，这波下杀也可能只是洗一下浮筹。它现在的状态，像延续末端的疲惫，不是干净的派发。 NEAR从4.816掉到4.204，日线结构还没彻底坏，4.023是短线分水岭。守住还有机会再冲4.287甚至4.4，丢了就往4.0甚至3.8去找Worked hard for a month and only made 80 dollars At most, I held more than a dozen positions at the same time The main reason for failure was holding short positions for too long Opening trades in a bull market with bear market thinking, if I don't lose money, who will If $ZEC and $ARB had stopped losses earlier It wouldn't be the situation it is now All the profits made from going long later turned into the margin for the previous short positions$ZEC If I hadn't shorted ONE and $USELESS later,Multicoin just said that RWA going on-chain marks the beginning of the DeFi 2.0 era. Previously, RWA tokens were issued on Ethereum, but now real on-chain trading is happening.
What does this have to do with ETH? The biggest infrastructure for RWA on-chain is Ethereum. Tokens are issued on ETH, order books are built on ETH, and settlements run on ETH. Every RWA transaction pays Gas to ETH.
Currently, $ETH is at 2681, up 67% in 90 days, but Gas fees are still just a few dollars. Once RWA volume really picks up and Gas fees rise, $ETH's revenue will increase.
Today is options settlement day, and market makers can manipulate as they please. In the mid-term view, the RWA narrative is much more important than short-term price spikes. #美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ #ETH现货ETF连续三周净流入 #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 Do you think that whale chasing longs at 2800 is bottom fishing?
He's not bottom fishing; he's digging his own grave.
I've been watching his position address for a long time.
Floating losses exceed 10 million USD, yet he's still adding to his position.
When people are losing money, they are the hardest to persuade, because they don't believe the price will rise; they just don't believe they could be wrong.
I understand him, because three months ago, I was also that person who refused to admit mistakes.
But now ETH has rolled down from 2800 to 2694, all 15-minute moving averages are pressing down, and the MACD red bars have shrunk to almost invisible.
ETF net outflows have continued for four days, with a single-day outflow of 251 million yesterday.
The probability of a Fed rate hike in October is approaching 70%, and the chance of further hikes this year is 89%.
Liquidity is tightening, institutions are retreating, and retail investors are still waiting for a rebound.
I entered a short at 2727 with 100x leverage, floating profit 127%. The number isn't big, but the direction is right.
I don't advise anyone to copy trades.
I'm just thinking—when the richest person in the market is making mistakes, what makes you think you're definitely right?
$BTC
$ETH
$ZEC 🔥Long positions liquidated for 230 million, is the dog whale's shakeout an open play?
A single wick took out the chasing bulls, shorts barely made any profit!
In the past hour, the entire network liquidated 238 million, with longs accounting for 230 million and shorts only 6.83 million. A bunch of chasing bulls were shaken out, shorts didn’t even get a sip.
Repeatedly warned last night: a large amount of trapped positions piled up above 86k and 87k, don’t chase highs. But when BTC surged to 87399, some still rushed in to catch the falling knife, and a single wick wiped them out collectively. The liquidation data is right in front of us, 230 million long leverage turned into fuel: a typical pump to lure bulls, then a reverse smash to trigger leverage, after clearing leverage positions the market looks cleaner.
My long positions took profit and exited long ago, I won’t enter before the planned retracement point, and now I definitely won’t reach out to catch a falling knife.
✅ Planned entry points:
$BTC: Buy on pullback at 84500-85000 with stop loss at 84000, target 86000
$ETH: Buy at 2700-2720, stop loss 2680, target 2800
$SOL: Buy at 114-115, stop loss 113, target 120
Just finished wiping out 230 million longs, panic hasn’t fully released yet, don’t rush to bottom fish. Be patient, wait for the wick to retract and volume to stabilize before acting.
👉 Do you think this is a shakeout or distribution? Let’s discuss in the comments!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
⚠️ Market review and personal thoughts only, not investment advice #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ Have you noticed a strange phenomenon?
Bitcoin is sideways at 87,000, Ethereum is grinding at 2,700,
only UNI is bouncing around, pulling from 8.7 to 9.4. Looks strong, right?
But if you think carefully, why is it the only one moving in the entire DeFi sector?
I checked a round of on-chain data and found a neglected detail.
This surge is all short-term funds messing around; the real long-term holders haven't moved at all.
One address bought $10.13 million worth of UNI, LTC, and BNB in one hour, which looks fierce,
but if you check that address's history, it's all quick in-and-out short-term trades.
In short, it's hot money looking for someone to take the bag.
More importantly, at the 9.4 level, UNI tried twice but couldn't hold.
Every time it surged up, it got slammed back down, leaving a long upper shadow.
This isn't accumulation; someone is using a pump to dump.
$BTC
$ETH
$UNI
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ $NEAR $BTC $ETH 现价 4.7 ｜ 24h +10.04% ｜ 高 4.803 低 2.959 ｜ 成交额 5352 万 多周期：1h 多头排列 · 日线多头 动量：RSI 1h 66 / 日 83；MACD(1h) DIF 0.054 > DEA 0.007，柱 **+0.095 金叉** 波动：ATR 3.43%，区间位置 94.4%（2.959~4.803），量能比 **0.86x（缩量）** 关键位：阻力 4.755；EMA21 4.448 / EMA50 4.397；支撑 2.989 斐波（2.405→4.803）：0.236=4.237 · 0.382=3.887 · 0.5=3.604 · 0.618=3.321 判断：**强势但缩量**。结构多头、MACD 金叉、区间位置 94.4% 强势无疑，但量能 0.86x 未跟上——涨 10% 量反而缩，量价背离，是这波最大的隐患。 计划：突破 4.755 看新高，否则回踩 4.448（EMA21）试多，止损 4.397 下方；缩量状态下追高需谨慎。#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会$ONDO ONDO is up 25% today, the RWA sector is rallying again. Current price is 0.5198, already hitting the 7-day high, with a range position of 96.6%.
But I have to be honest, this level is a bit hot. The RSI on the hourly chart is already 84, which is a classic overbought signal, even more extreme than LTC. After a 25% rise, there are plenty of short-term profit takers who might start cashing out at any time.
I believe in the RWA narrative, and Ondo is indeed a leader in this sector, but "good narrative" and "buying now" are two different things. Technically, the volume at 1.47 times indicates a breakout with real momentum, but with overbought conditions at this level, I prefer to wait for it to take a breather and pull back to around 0.46~0.45 (near EMA21) before considering, rather than buying at the 0.52 peak.
For those chasing ONDO, at this level, are you afraid of missing out, or do you really think it can break away from the pack? Share your thoughts in the comments. #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ $BTC $LTC LTC is really strong this time. The day before yesterday, while the whole market was down, it was the only one in the green. Today it’s directly +23%, current price 73.99, pulled all the way from 53 to 74. Whoever still says Litecoin is a "retirement coin," I’m ready to argue with them.
But the more it rallies continuously like this, the more I have to remind you: the RSI on the hourly chart is already 76.5, and on the daily chart it’s even 84, both touching the overbought zone. The 7-day range position is 95.9%, meaning it has already reached the highest point in recent days, and the next resistance is the previous high at 74.8.
The volume is 1.49 times higher, indicating real money is pushing this move, not fake volume. But volume increase + overbought + hitting previous high, these three combined mean that those chasing the high need to think carefully: are you here to ride the main upward wave, or to catch the last baton for someone else?
My view is, don’t chase near the 74 previous high. If you really believe in it, wait for it to pull back to around 68 (EMA21) before buying in, and set a stop loss below 65. For those holding LTC, are you comfortable holding this wave? $BTC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ $OKB Today's pullback actually makes me more interested in monitoring its on-chain data.
Currently, $OKB is around $119.25, down about 4% in 24 hours, but on the other hand, X Layer's DeFi TVL has reached about $175 million, growing nearly 4% in 24 hours.
This creates an interesting divergence:
The price is cooling down, but on-chain funds are still increasing.
Also, today happens to be the OKX Dev Day project submission deadline, with the shortlist selection from September 28–30. The subsequent ecosystem project developments are worth continued observation.
From the market perspective, $120 remains a very critical psychological level.
Only if it can reclaim $120 and trading volume continues to expand does it indicate that capital is starting to revalue it; if it keeps falling below $120, then don't rush to equate TVL growth directly with price increase.
On-chain data tells the story, price validates the story.
This time, I’m more interested to see if $OKB can take back $120.👀
The above is just my personal market observation and does not constitute trading advice.
$OKB 5.067%.
I stared at this number for a long time, then casually checked the auction results; the winning bid rate was even higher than the pre-issuance rate.
In plain terms: the Treasury wants to borrow money, but it has to offer more for anyone to take it.
My first reaction wasn’t about US Treasuries, but about our side. When US Treasury yields rise, the valuation of risk assets has to be pushed down; this is a calculation every seasoned investor knows.
But the market was quiet as if nothing happened.
This is the lesson. When macro data hits, the market doesn’t necessarily react immediately, but by the time it does, you’re often already caught in it.
So here’s the question: in this kind of "dull then painful" market, do you think you can get away?
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？
#日本10年期国债收益率创30年新高 #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ $HYPE $ETH Prince has been fluctuating these past two days, causing emotional ups and downs. When operations become distorted, it's time to stop.$BTC $ETH $14.9 billion options expire tomorrow, will BTC have another round at midnight?
On September 25, Deribit will see about $14.9 billion BTC options expire and settle, with a put/call ratio of about 0.76 and the max pain point at $78,000.
BTC is now near $84,500, about $6,500 away from the max pain point. ETH is around 2680.
But I actually think the biggest risk tonight is not chasing the rally, but the intense shakeout before the options expiry.
I deduce three possible phases:
Step 1: A rally first
BTC attempts to break through 85,500–86,000 to attract long positions.
Step 2: Sudden drop
If longs are crowded, a quick dip to 83,000 or even lower is possible to flush out leveraged funds.
Step 3: A wick followed by a new directional choice
If there is clear support near 83,000, it could become the starting point for another upward push.
ETH is also focused on 2720–2750, with key support at 2620–2650.
I personally pay more attention to one signal:
If BTC doesn’t fall and ETH holds up, this options expiry could actually become a booster for the bulls.
Tonight, do you think it will rally first or dump first? #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ 📊 Position Overview The total portfolio value stands at approximately $128 million, with all three positions being longs at full position size: 1. BTC Long｜40x Full Position 175 BTC Position value: $14.62M Entry: $83,546.20 Unrealized P&L: +$3,110.90 Liquidation price: $61,567.47 At 40x leverage, the BTC position is currently slightly profitable, with a substantial gap between the current price and liquidation level. 2. ETH Long｜25x Full Position 38,000 ETH Position value: $100M Entry: $2,658Sisters, $ETH has bounced back again!
Are many of you starting to get nervous, thinking the bull market is returning quickly?
Don’t rush, listen to me, this rebound is purely an emotional recovery after an oversell.
It’s not a reversal at all; instead, it’s an opportunity for us bears to get back in.
Let’s first review the script I mentioned last time: the entire crypto market started to decline across the board, Bitcoin dropped back to 83000, Ethereum fell to 2600, and ZEC dropped to 1400.
Now, although ETH has rebounded from a low of 2626 to 2684, if you look closely at the trend, the SAR is firmly pressing down at 2668.
The MACD is converging near the zero line, and the range from 2700 to 2720 is full of dense trapped positions. Every rebound is a bull trap, specifically deceiving those chasing highs thinking the bull market is back.
Why do I still firmly hold a bearish view?
Because the macro constraints have not been lifted at all.
The Fed’s rate hike expectations hang overhead, and in a high-interest environment, risk capital is retreating.
The last rate hike cycle also gave a few days of sweetness first, making retail investors think the bad news was over, then smashed the market in the second half of the month.
This current trend is almost exactly the same.
Look at my two short positions: one full position at an average price of 2579, and one isolated position at 2379. Now the mark price is 2684, with a combined floating loss of over 40 USD.
Seeing the red numbers in my account, it’s honestly painful, but having experienced deep traps before, this small pullback doesn’t even make me blink.
This weak rebound is nothing more than allowing the bears’ chips to change hands more fully.
So, sisters who want to short, you can lightly short around 2680 to 2700, with a stop loss above 2720.
The target is first 2640; if it breaks, then 2600, and further down is 2500.
Don’t be afraid, set your defense well; the risk-reward ratio is very favorable.
I’ll keep holding my short positions, fighting to the end, never cutting losses.
This rate hike cycle script will definitely end in a crash.
The bear leader never gives up; tonight I’ll continue eating my houttuynia!
$BTC
$ZEC
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ Analysts explain that the recent $ENA surge is mainly accompanied by the market's renewed focus on the protocol's latest developments in September and the subsequent token unlocking schedule.
Stablecoin infrastructure remains one of the core narratives in the current crypto market, especially with the recovery of basis trading yields and funding rates:
Ethena's core product USDe generates returns essentially from "spot staking yields + futures contract short basis arbitrage." As bullish sentiment steadily rebuilds in the market, the rise in derivatives funding rates directly boosts USDe's annualized yield, positively reinforcing the fundamentals of the underlying token $ENA.
However, attention must be paid to the delicate game around unlocking; the market is highly sensitive to the "unlocking schedule." Short-term rallies are often liquidity management by market makers and whales before unlocking events (establishing higher premiums and depth). It is crucial to be cautious of potential dilution of holdings in the secondary market after the unlocking release.$USELESS 0.125 short USELESS. At that time, it was pulled from 0.03 to 0.1 in half a month. I thought memes are all a mess; the crazier they rise, the harder they fall. On the day I opened the short, I even posted on Moments: shorting is useless, clear-headed in the world. Now it's 0.296, floating loss over 359%, the principal has long been wiped out, hanging on only by repeatedly adding margin. I forgot how many times I added margin, only remember last time after adding margin, there were only two digits left in my card. Yesterday I reduced position at a high of 0.35, now even if it goes to zero, I can't break even. It doesn't drop at all. The dog whale will never afford three dishes in a lifetime. The most infuriating thing is the coin's name, it’s literally Useless, useless. It uses doubled gains to tell me: your technical analysis is useless, your experience is useless, the support and resistance lines you stayed up late drawing are useless. A friend asked me what coin I’ve been playing recently, I told him the name, he laughed for five minutes and praised the name. I didn’t dare tell him it was my half-year savings... Double positions, after watching Green Mao, I also learned isolated margin shorting, but such losses are doubled, can’t learn double positions like Green Mao...